I think it’s probably safe to embark on a round-up of the past year’s events without worrying that the remaining days hold too many surprises for the Japanese industry.

It’s been a quiet year on the corporate side, and with the Christmas releases already on the shelves it’s hard to foresee any massive upset. Certainly not in terms of software, where it would take a miracle to top Capcom’s success with Monster Hunter Portable 2nd Generation.

Although the tremendous popularity of this game in Japan has been mentioned many times in this column, its relative anonymity in other regions of the world always makes it a phenomenon worth highlighting. Our figures at Famitsu indicate that about 2.5 million copies have been sold, and the game has garnered much press for its high percentage of female players.

The success of this and other fourplayer portable network games, like Sega’s Phantasy Star Portable, says a good deal about Japanese gaming culture – particularly when contrasted with the lacklustre sales of network games that don’t entail a similar degree of face-to-face contact. Some speculate that this is a branch of Japan’s arcade culture, but I also wonder if the PSP has become a redoubt for hardcore gamers, desperate for a community undiluted by the casual gaming trend.

The second big software event of the year was the release of Pokémon Platinum for the DS. That a remake of the original Pokémon series can still sell more than 1.9 million copies, even after all these years, is quite remarkable – and will undoubtedly shift more copies before 2008 is out. Few can argue that Pokémon isn’t something of a masterpiece of design, but it’s nonetheless occasionally surprising that Japanese tastes have remained so static.

Looking at the charts, it’s clear that the year has been Nintendo’s, once again. Mario Kart sits in third place with 1.8 million sales, Smash Bros X resides a decimal point lower, with Dragon Quest IV for DS clocking 1.2 million units. Outside software, however, the Japanese industry has had a reasonably quiet year – the merger between Koei and Tecmo was the biggest business headline and, while the releases of the PSP-3000 and DSi both invigorated hardware sales, neither were radical updates.

Xbox 360’s (admittedly successful) expansion in Japan currently relies on baiting consumers with tasty JRPG exclusives. Despite initially slow sales, the console has helped raise interest in more western-oriented games – but whether this will make Microsoft’s expenditure in Japan worthwhile is a question that will not be answered in 2009 alone. Of course, Xbox 360’s improving prospects in the market might be brought to an abrupt end if PS3 drops below the ¥30,000 (£216) mark.

March 2009 looks to be a very busy month for software sales. Resident Evil 5 will be released then but, in terms of its significance for Japan, it will probably be overshadowed by the release of Dragon Quest IX on DS. Then, looking beyond spring, the release date for the inevitably gargantuan Final Fantasy XIII has still not been made definitive but the likelihood is that it will be released during 2009, or at least during that fiscal year.

Another interesting title to watch will be Monster Hunter 3 – it’s no secret that thirdparties have had a hard time selling on Nintendo’s platforms, especially Wii. Will Monster Hunter 3 be able to change that, riding on the brand’s staggering success on PSP?

But outside of these Japan-centric releases, 2009 will be most interesting for tracking the prospects of western games in the Japanese market. While it’s easy for Japanese gamers to feel like some facet of their identity is being lost, quality is universal; Japan can still be an important place for original creation, regardless of whose tastes it caters to – and that’s what really matters to me.