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2009: The Road Ahead
PS3
During the middle months of 2008, PlayStation 3 was selling as many units as Xbox 360, but a big price differential made all the difference in Q4 when Xbox 360 once again stretched its lead. Globally, PS3 is still about 40 percent behind Microsoft. However, a big roster of exclusive first- and second-party games and some prudent price cuts could give Sony an opportunity to close that gap in 2009. It’s also worth remembering that PS3 leads Xbox 360 in Japan and is very competitive in Europe. Even so, outstripping Xbox 360 globally looks to be a 2010 target, at best.
Quantic Dream
Heavy Rain from France’s Quantic Dream is yet another PS3 exclusive with big ambitions. But Heavy Rain’s importance goes beyond the humdrum squalor of a hardware war. It’s at the frontier of gaming’s attempts to tell emotional stories and to engage grown-ups as a good novel might. It’s what we believe to be something akin to “art” in the medium; an aspiration that has confused many game developers in the past. As in Fable II, it has set itself a task of creating unexpected consequences and a moral environment that travels beyond black and white. Once again we anticipate such a game with a mixture of excitement, hope and skepticism.
Riccitiello
Electronic Arts may have been caught by Activision-Blizzard in terms of pure sales, but it’s still the most important company in the games industry. EA’s activities go further and deeper than anyone else’s across platforms, genres, partnerships, business models and borders. It is the company analysts and investors look to first, when gauging the health of our business. Its CEO John Riccitiello is the kind of exec the game industry enjoys. He is outspoken, spends a lot of time talking about product, and takes risks. He hires good people around him and he sets out a very public agenda of change. EA has moved way from its negative aura of corporate plodder to a more dynamic outfit that seeks to improve its products, as well as the lot of its employees. There is much still to be achieved and, with an economic downturn and tough targets to hit, Riccitiello is going to need all his skills to stay ahead in ’09.
Sequels
In 2009 there will be lots of sequels, and they will continue to dominate sales. This is stating the bloody obvious but is no less true as an observation that defines this business. The game industry is, at its heart, a machine that iterates on familiar models over and over again. As we journey further into the current generation; as ultra-conservative PS2-owning consumers upgrade to PS3 or Xbox 360, this truism will become yet more pervasive. It’s just something we have to live with.
Television
TV is yet another medium struggling to compete against interactive entertainment. Advertising revenues are dipping as audiences are fragmenting. Quality is clustered around a tiny archipelago of truly great products (The Wire, Mad Men), surrounded by an ocean of sewage. Interactive TV has proven to be a dead-end as new technologies have engulfed the aspirations of TV execs, petrified of the influence of game platforms. Advertisers are taking games seriously, as it becomes clear that this is a medium that delivers eyeballs in abundance. Even TV shows are becoming more like videogames, with a flat palette of two-dimensional characters moving progressively through random objectives, the odd big boss and perplexing, pointless plot twists. Heroes, Lost, Family Guy. Shit, shit, shit.
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Copyright 2006 - 2009 Future Publishing Limited, Beauford Court 30 Monmouth Street Bath, UK BA1 2BW
England and Wales company registration number 2008885
im suprised that 3 of the exclusive ps3 titles have been singled out as some of the potential key moments of 2009, but am also highly anticipating all of these titles (killzone2, God of War 3, and quantic dream) and many more for that matter. They will most likely boost ps3 sales, and along with the inevitable price cut, sony will probably pull back a fair amount of ground in the sales and respectable titles war.
anyway heres to a fruitful 2009, its looking good so far!
Retro remakes/sequels:
With the critical and commercial success of remakes and retro games like Bionic Commando: Rearmed, Mega Man 9, and Square/Enix's DS Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy JRPGs, and with the relative low cost of their development, studios will expand their libraries of retro remakes to complement their XBLA and Virtual Console offerings targeted toward nostalgic gamers.
Games are amazing value for money when you think about it.......
Average film 3 hours and about $7 or £7
Average game 15-30 hours about $30 or £30
Your value for money = purchase cost / time spend enjoying it
The cinema costs you about twice as much, if not more! You don’t get anywhere near as much value for money from any other entertainment. Game prices could go up really, we have it very good at the moment.
What, no the last month for the 360 to outsell the PS3 ever like last year? Boo hoo. With that said instead of that happening last year like you all called the opposite happened and the 360 lead went from 5 million to 8 million WW. Amazing, and yet you guys say that somehow this year it will lose share. Haha, awesome. The lead could very well be 9/10 million before a price cut even happens. As for SW the PS3 looks a little better at this point, but like last year that was everyones argument as well. That didn't turn out to well because MS like last year had plenty more to announce. Hmm, wonder if were in for repeat. Magic 8 ball says, likley. Don't ever doubt the price advantage that MS has put in place for the rest of this gen, and yea they still have plenty of wiggle room in that department.
*anxiously awaits the obvious PS3 price cut*
I have a question. If movies can coast millions upon millions to make yet a dvd is still usually under 20 or 25 dollars. Games generally coast less, but are 60 dollars. I think they just have to realize that these games are not worth what they are asking. If they had a cheaper price point then they would sell more and make used game less attractive.
I personally hate buying used games. I do everything I can to avoid it, but sometimes it is the only option.
Most big movies make the majority of their revenue at the cinema.
sorry i didn't meant or eply directly to you, but whatever.
Again with the hate on used games. They do serve a purpose and that's to keep game prices from reaching insane amounts and balance the market. And Gamestop is the last place I would buy a game used, or even new for that matter. They take advantage of the consumer in either situation, that much I completely agree with.
I think heroes is pretty good and family guy is hilarious... you just lost me.
I quite like the Heroes TV show. Shame on you, Good article otherwise though.
I have a good vibe about 2009. Once we have all the studio closures out of the way and the dust settles we'll begin to see a new industry grow, bigger and stronger. There are some great games on the horizon. I'm personally looking forward to Killzone 2, RE5, GoW 3 and am hugely excited about finding out more about Heavy Rain and Uncharted 2. So it's a good year for Sony at least. I'm sure MS and Nintendo will have some interesting things up their sleeves too... maybe
To state that cinema is in decline due to the quality of movies is nonsense. However, if you only have the fourth Indiana Jones flick to back you up, I can imagine you might think so. A lot of the higher quality movies do not make for very interesting games though - and since the marketing department of certain movies knows damn well that a game will sell on its license alone, crappy games continue to get made. But even with potentially interesting titles, the game industry didn't exactly maintain the quality of the movies. While Ironman, which in my opinion was very enjoyable, got a crappy game - (as a consequence) I was actually happy to see The Dark Knight not receiving a game make-over at all.
The quality of certain TV series is the one thing TV still has going for it as it's been actually gone up a lot, in my opinion. You might think a lot of these series are shit but compare them to their 80ies or 90ies equivalents and you'll see that they're attempting to deliver a little more than just 40 or 50 minute short stories - instead, they are extended movies in which characters are explored and story lines are spread out over entire seasons. I'll take the new Battlestar Galactica over the old one any time and both Californication and Dexter could not have been made 10 years ago... and although the truly great ones you mention are definitely good, they're not alone. It's just the fact of the matter that there's just a lot more of both shitty series and good ones.
God of War 3 and Killzone 2 are probably going to sell well but I'd preferrably put my money on Heavy Rain. I'm really curious if that title will live up to what its makers have been stating in press reports and interviews. If it does, it could be a very interesting title for the PS3 as well. With regards to originality and innovation, I don't think things will ever change though. I still remember Vagrant Story coming out - probably the best RPG next to Chronotrigger. It got great reviews yet sold poorly.
While its more clear what Sony has planned for this year, I also wonder what Microsoft and Nintendo have up their sleeves. Zelda would be nice - but it has to be very good to win back those who chose the 360 or PS3 as their new system of choice for RPGs. Since Microsoft is still dominating the online console market, I think they'll focus on that - and while they can't really cut the price of the machine anymore, they can cut the price of their online services.