Used Games

If you are ever stuck in an elevator with Dan DeMatteo, chief of GameStop, ask him about used games. You will spend an enjoyable few hours being persuaded that, somehow, the resale of products made by the game industry, with zero income for the game industry, is good for the game industry. It brings customers into shops; it increases the value of new games and it makes gaming seem more cost-effective to consumers, he’ll say. None of this will change your opinion -  once the pink haze of his agreeable company has eventually dissipated -  that used games really do damage game sales; actually represent poor value for consumers, and have only one benefit for the game industry, that being the preservation of a profitable retailer in valuable retail locations. As the economy bites, used games will continue their shameful position of dominance within your local store.

Vanessa, Verity, Violet…

The female market is no longer a demographic oddity or executive pipe-dream. In fact, with the success of casual games, online communities and music games, it’s hardcore teenage boys that are beginning to look niche – certainly Nintendo believes so, despite its protestations to the contrary. This Holiday season, girls and women were unwrapping gifts called Lips and Guitar Hero and were playing them for hours on end.  It turned out that creating in-game characters or stories that “empower” women is way less important than giving women products that are plain fun.

Wii

I confidently predict, as I predicted this time last year, that Wii will not enjoy quite as spectacularly successful a year as the one it just enjoyed. And I am equally confident that I’ll be proved completely wrong, once again.

Xbox 360

Earlier this year, NPD numbers began to suggest that Xbox 360’s month-to-month dominance over PS3 had come to an end. There were some who believed that the balance had swung to Sony. Microsoft’s price cuts and some great Q4 exclusives changed all that. And the arrival of NXE has done the platform no harm at all, stamping its leadership in this all-important arena of online community and retail environment. However, despite a stringent need for profitability, it is Sony that has more room in which to cut prices in 2009. Sony also has, from this vantage point, a better line-up of exclusives for the 12 months ahead (feel free to discuss in our Comments section). Xbox 360’s share is likely to be diminished in the year ahead, although, as economies of scale continue to play their part, Microsoft’s investment and belief in the games market will continue to be rewarded.

You

Personalization isn’t limited to choosing skin-color or training shows for your avatar. The power of the individual – most especially the individual with power – is paramount in the thinking of marketers. In 2009, the trend away from traditional marketing platforms will continue as marketing focuses on channels that speak directly to the consumer. Online communities are just the beginning as investment moves away from broadcast solutions and towards Facebook, YouTube and the whole phalanx of connections companies can make directly with you. This gives individuals a greater voice (because these platforms are not only two-directional but multi-directional) and forces game companies to pay more attention to One-Percenters – bloggers, big-mouths, video-uploaders, friends-list junkies, retail workers - who drive opinion.

Zelda

Nintendo’s claim that its E3 presentation was a mistake merely because it failed to focus on the company’s hardcore activities was disingenuous. The company’s hardcore activities have taken a backseat – by which we mean they’ve been stuffed into the trunk – while it reaps the rewards from a brilliant strategy of introducing games to people who previously weren’t gamers. It is probable that Nintendo is working on games based on key hardcore franchises like Zelda, but improbable that we’ll see any such thing in 2009. This is not due to some lapse in good taste – this is about Nintendo being Nintendo. And when the company feels like it needs you fanboys again, it’ll show some footage at some trade show, and you’ll be back. You know it. Nintendo knows it. In the meantime, try to make the most of 2009. Life without Zelda is possible.