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360 Will Beat PS3 This Holiday - Analyst
By Kris Graft
September 4, 2008
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"...Going into this holiday season, the PS3 will not only have the highest price point, but also the smallest software library, weaker line-up of exclusive titles (compared to Xbox 360’s Gears of War 2 and Fable 2), and a less popular online network."
If there's one console maker that should worry about Xbox 360's multi-model price cut, it's Sony, claims analyst Jesse Divnich with Electronic Entertainment Design and Research.
"[Between Sony and Nintendo,] Sony should be the most concerned [about the 360's price cut]," he told Edge on Thursday. "...Going into this holiday season, the PS3 will not only have the highest price point, but also the smallest software library, weaker line-up of exclusive titles (compared to Xbox 360’s Gears of War 2 and Fable 2), and a less popular online network."
Divnich said that Sony should "heavily consider" a hardware price cut in the next few months in order to keep pace.
Currently, Sony's de facto standard 80GB PS3 retails in the U.S. for $399, while Microsoft's range of Xbox 360s now start at $199.
Sony has said that it will not be reducing the price of the PS3 this year.
"I suspect that the reason why Sony has been so adamant about maintaining its current price point is because it has not reached a more efficient scale in its manufacturing of the PS3," said Divnich.
"Long-term, I don't think anyone doubts the success of the PS3, however it is currently looking like the Xbox 360 will win another holiday season against the PS3 in North America."
Across all three models, Divinch expects a 20-30 percent short-term jump in Xbox 360 unit sales thanks to the price cuts.
Analyst Michael Pachter with Wedbush Morgan told Edge that he thinks the price reduction will "spark an increase of 15-20 percent in unit sales over the next 12 months."
Colin Sebastian with Lazard Capital Markets called Microsoft's move "good news for the videogame industry," adding that it may boost sales of the upcoming Rock Band 2 and Guitar Hero: World Tour.
He added that his analysis of historical U.S. console sales shows a leap in uptake after hardware breaks the $200 mark.
"In addition, given the weaker consumer spending environment, the Xbox 360 should also now be in closer reach of more price-sensitive consumers," Sebastian said.
What about Nintendo?
With Xbox 360 and PS3 sales virtually neck-and-neck every month in the U.S., the focus has been on that horse race. But it's Nintendo's platforms--the Wii and the DS--that have been consistently outselling its rivals by large margins.
But now that the Xbox 360 Arcade is $50 cheaper than the $249 Wii, should Nintendo be on its guard?
"Nintendo need not worry about Microsoft, or anyone else for that matter," Divnich said plainly. "Nintendo will always be its own worst enemy (in terms of keeping up with demand).
"...Nintendo has so much wiggle room on the Wii’s pricing that they will never be afraid of a competitor trying to use price as a differentiating feature.
"If they ever felt threatened, they could drop the Wii down to $149 and destroy a competitors momentum. But in this particular case, Nintendo won’t feel too threatened by an Xbox 360 price drop."
Sebastian also said that he doesn't expect Nintendo to change its pricing strategy in the wake of Xbox 360's price drop, noting that the Wii remains in short supply at retail, despite being on the market since late 2006.
Why do you PS3 fanboys get so defensive about your console, the PS3 is not using just 30% of it's power, if you want an explanation of the true situation i can think of no one better than John Carmack who is in the unusual position of not having his purse strings controlled by either Sony or Microsoft:
http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3169112
As for the RROD, it was fixed ages ago and you get a full 3 Year guarantee (with free shipping) anyway, so seriously, give it up.
If you're unhappy with the fact that Sony told you lies about what the PS3 is capable of then take it up with Sony. If you're happy with your PS3 then why are you having a dig a Microsoft, surely a bit of competition is a very good thing.
I'm sure the PS3 is great value for money (Wi-fi, Blu-Ray etc) but the bottom line for most consumers is price, and at the moment you can pay Microsoft $199 and play GTA IV, COD4, Devil may Cry and the rest, or you can pay $399 to do the same with Sony, and that's before you even consider exclusives, of which M$ still has the better line up.
Yea we all checked those interviews with Carmack and no one thinks here that the games of today use only the 30% of the PS3's power. (Except rydamgw, maybe, sorry mate :) What people don't understand is that these numbers are the effective power of these systems (yes I'm talking about the 360 too), and with skillful programming and nice tricks the most talented teams will bring some real marvellous things to the table (see the fake global illumination and motion blur in Shadow of the Colossus, last gen). Pure horsepower means nothing in this regard, only talent and experience.
As for the RROD, sorry to disappoint you. It hasn't gone away and the warranty will expire very soon (in this year for some people, actually). I think MS will extend the 3 years but that won't make any difference. I'm a collector and I want to play my present-day favourites in the future. It's really sad that the 360 will be the first system that won't be able to serve my nostalgy (supposing they won't have the perfect BC in the 'Nextbox').
What will YOU do with those old games?
Good point on processing power vs programming. I would have to comment on RRoD opinion though. Yes, 3 years for some will be up in November (only launch day purchasers). The warranty is 3 years from your purchase date, not the date the 360 came out. So only about 300k gamers or so will expire in November. And I hate to say it since as someone already pointed out today I'm an xbot, but I don't have my launch 360 any more, RIP...So, my 3 year warranty isn't about to end. And also, what my bro-in-law learned the hard way, the 3 year warranty online pertains to RRoD specifically. If you have some other failure like, "disc read error" or "no disc", only the 1 year warranty covers that one. So, if it breaks and there's no red rings, and its been a year, you're shit out of luck. (I'm not making this shit up, I spoke with a few different MS customer service representatives who all confirmed...I shouldn't have said that now that I think about it.)
And do you really play your old games??? Really? And with full game downloads probably being the norm on the "Nextbox" BC won't really matter. And its not like Sony did a great job with BC on the PS3...
You're probably right about the warranty and the customer service. I also had some nice heart to hearts with them -- except it was in Hungary where they don't speak to you about the rrod, just hang up the phone several times, true story.
"do you really play your old games???"
Absolutely!!! Really. I just hope they will do some VERY serious work with it (BC) on the Nextbox, so I can play all my favourites retrospectively. I emulate everything before the PS1 and still play my PC, GBA, Dreamcast, DS, PS2 /3 games in their original format (some of those systems are really old). I'm so old-fashioned when it comes to playing ;b
Oh yes, Sony screwed the BC thing since the 40G models last year, shame on them. Fortunately, I still have my mint slim PS2 with my 20+ best of the best collection. It's a shame that I won't say that about the 360 in 3 years, however.
Couldn't agree more with your points about skillful programming and nice tricks by the most talented teams, and i'm sure that both the 360 and PS3 will improve as this generation continues. As for my response to the RRoD issue i would point you to my last post on the "Shining Light on the Red Ring" discussion.
Thanks nolim, got that, see you there :)
I don't know about you guys, but here in southern california, it is EXTREMELY hard to find a PS3 console near where I live. I see tons of xbox360's on store shelves picking up dust though =/. I don't know how the Xbox 360 even with the price drop is going to outsell Sony with the infamous RROD. Anyways, if Microsoft do manage to outsell the PS3 this holiday season, I surely hope they use up some of that income to fix the 360's RROD and whatever other issues the gamers are running into (or just save up and work on the next Microsoft gaming console?). As for me I haven't owned any systems yet. I've been reading lots of complaints on both systems, but I think I'm going to purchase the PS3 when their 45nm chip comes out (supposedly sometime around mid 2009) or if I can find a reaaaaaaaaally good deal at Costco with their lifetime warranty on gaming consoles (well not really you'll still be paying 50 bucks a year for costco membership, although that is for food and other things that Costco sells aslo ;P.). I prefer to have my console, if it breaks down, instantly fixed or given a new one within 2 days, or just a full refund. I'm in the market for a good blue ray player anyways.. so I guess I'll cash out a little more just to save a lot?
The way they will sell more 360s than PS3s is because the number of 360s sold will be higher than the number of PS3s sold. I think that's a good explanation. I wish people would let RRoD die. If your xbox gets RRoD within 3 years of buying the system, you get it fixed for free (shipping too). Get over that.
I do think xbox will beat out ps3 this holiday season but i also know that it wont happen ever again i was just reading an article where gears of war 2 developer was saying that they were completely pushing the technical envolope w the 360 and it wont get much better than that. thats pretty sad w a system only in its third year remember the ps3 still has 8 years of life to it and they have only used 20 to 30 % of its processing power the next gen war isnt over any time soon and the ps3 still has alot of tricks up its sleeve such as God of war 3 which will definately be a system seller and lets not forget MAG whether u realize it or not the 360 is greatly underpowered even w its year head start the graphics on mgs4 beat out any and all games the 360 had to offer according to ALL reveiws. I do support sony and this may seem biased but its all facts the 360 is a good overall system w excellent games but they just rushed it out the door w no foresight whereas the ps3 will hold up in the coming years and soon greatly pass the 360 in all components of gaming mark my words.
Shut up with this 8 years of life thing already. That's Sony PR talk. It may last 8 more years, but 3-4 years from now, they'll be a new Playstation out and no one will give a shit about how long the PS3 will last when they're playing their PS4.
I think the point though that knowing that you will get a decent amount of support from Sony for the PS3 makes it a little more attractive to the consumer now, frankly it's an area that MS and to a certain extent Nintendo are lacking in. You are right that people won't really care once they actually buy the next console but I don't really think that's what the argument is.
Well, looked into MY crystal ball and you're wrong.
I'm not sure about the 8 years thing, but there won't be a PS4 on the market in 3-4 years. Maybe a next Xbox will be out at that point, but I'm not sure we'll see a huge update on the hardware front -- probably they will copy the Wii's strategy whatever Nintendo does at that time. Except this time there won't be many early adopters for the 'Nextbox': the majority will wait for the reports on stability.
The PS3, it will flourist in 3-4 years and they won't let MS to lure them out with a new model for 2 years (whenever MS brings out its new iteration).
You know what? I'm not so sure about all these things. Maybe we won't see a PS4 / Xbox 720 at all. Sorry for the self-reference but just posted something about this here:
http://www.edge-online.com/blogs/ps4-xbox-720-may-not-happen
The bottom line is, MS wants to escape from the PR nightmare they caused with the last hardware, so a new Xbox is more likely. Maybe the'll simply extend the warranty and make a brand new 'slim' 360 in 2 years (with waggle). In that case upgrades will happen via software, not hardware.
Sweet God, you're even worse than "MS apologist" Kim (see below). I mean at least she gets paid for these absurd comments (she better be).
As far as I like the PS3 I honestly doubt that developers only used its 20-30% processing power -- more like 70% if you believe Naughty Dog. You have some other compromised "facts" about MAG and MGS4 but let's not play hair-splitting.
Agreed although I think ND said around 40% didn't they? It doesn't really matter because no developer will ever use 100% of the power 100% of the time on any system because it would die and a kitten would get drowned. It's also pointless for the fanboys/PR guys to engage in e-penis "power usage" comparing between the 360 and the PS3 because they have radically different architectures that handle stuff in different ways.
Surely the important thing is that both offer something that is worth investing in if you want to and are getting plenty of support. If you're like me you can get both systems and spend time lording it up over 14 year olds and overworked PR guys fighting it out over the interweb.
Who really cares what these analysts think. They are never held accountable for "wrong" predictions (they make many) and brag about all their "right" ones based on obvious information (you too could be an analyst based on the information in this article). In this case they have created another fanboy pissing match about two equally powerful consoles with a handful of exclusives and a ton of cross platform games.
I for one would prefer to sit and enjoy my games on my console(s) of choice. You should too.
Amen to that.
"weaker line-up of exclusive titles"
Lol. Seriously? Can I have what you're smoking? Because I want that stuff to mess sh1t up in my head too. Wow! That must be unreal...
Bro, beyond the dedicated gamer and PS3 owner, most of Sony's exlclusives are new IPs that may not be much of system sellers, even Resistance. People that are most excited about the PS3 exclusives are already PS3 owners, so when it comes to holiday sales, PS3 owners will make no impact (unless they buy an extra PS3). Gears could (and did) sell systems. And if LBP and Resistance impact PS3 sales this holiday, it still won't be enough to beat 360 in hardware sales of the the holiday season, and that was the point of the article. If Sony had say, GTA, FFIX, Metal Gear, God of War 2 coming out this holiday exlusive, then I'd say the article would be incorrect. But Gears 2 and Fable 2 coming out at the same time period, and not to mention many triple A multiplatform games for a system 200-300 cheaper than its rival during the holiday season? This article stated the obvious (360 will sell more consoles), so why people argue with it just doesn't make much sense.
Gears of War 2 is basically Gears of War 1. There will be little to no innovation. That sure as hell isn't going to bring in new gamers. Your theory that they need to have sequels to the same games they've been selling since the PSX is equally flawed.
If that sort of business model worked then MS would have no reason to steal Nintendo's ideas and implement them on the 360.
See, you can flip the table around and say that the same people that are interested in Fable 2 and Gears of war 2 are the people that have already bought the 360. But no, I disagree with that statement because there are going to be new people that will buy the 360 because of Fable 2 and Gears 2 just like there will be people that will buy the PS3 because of Resistance 2, God of war 2, Kill zone 2 (notice the sequels?). Now your point about Gears pushing the 360 is valid. What you fail to recognize is that Resistance was a launch title, where the PS3 had very little out at the time. That surely not the case anymore. Resistance has sold quiet well continuously since it has was released. I can't understand how one can conclude that LBP and Resistance 2 will not have an impact.
My biggest issue with the article is the blatant Sony bashing. I mean, if you are going to do it, do it discreetly please. But I guess that is what is required to defame your competition in Microsoft's mind. Yes, I know, its not MS that said this but developers/publishers/analysts can be biased too. Sometimes there are deals that happen under the table- you cannot rule out the possibility.
Fact: European and Asian sales figures favour Sony and Nintendo more heavily and the PS3 has been selling more than the 360 in North America since 2008.
What I find repulsive is how one man's opinion can be taken as inevitable fact without evidence. Its pure speculation. Thats all.
I agree that Xbox 360 definitely has a much stronger lineup of games this holiday season.
Remember, Gears of War "completely overshadowed" Resistance on the PS3.
It will be the same thing this year when the sequels compete with each other.
In fact, many people believe Resistance 2 will sell FEWER COPIES than the first Resistance did. The reason for this is because the Playstation 3 had one of the worst launches in gaming history, and Resistance was one of only a couple games that wasn't garbage. A lot of the people who bought Resistance actually didn't like it and have no plans of buying a seqeul.
Motorstorm 2 is also just a sequel to a racing game...I mean, it is the "same" gamel
Rather than worrying about sequels, Sony needs to worry about filling the gaps that still exist in genres. For example, Microsoft has been releasing plenty of games in the Real-Time Strategy genre on the Xbox 360...but the Playstation 3 still has ZERO games available in the Real-Time Strategy genre.
That's not a good thing for PS3, because those Real-Time Strategy games have gained so much popularity on Xbox 360 and PC. Games like Command & Conquer 3, Battle for Midearth 2, Red Alert, Universe at War, are all released on PC and Xbox 360, but not on Playstation 3...people don't want to pay $400 for a PS3 system like that.
Fable 2 is a completely new game on the Xbox 360 and it is a sequel to one of the best RPG games of all time, and has won lots of preview awards already! So you know there are plenty of people who will be interested in buying the Xbox 360, just for Fable 2.
Oh look, here's Kim_Naroz with another gushing positive comment on a story about the XBOX that slags Sony off and looks like it's come straight out of "Marketing For Dummies."
Hmmm. Posts overwhelming positive comments on XBOX and MS stories, sounds like a marketing spiel? Could it be that Kim_Narroz is SHOCK HORROR an employee of MS who's job it is to spam these stories?
Lame, very very lame.
"Motorstorm 2 is also just a sequel to a racing game...I mean, it is the "same" game"
Replace some words in that sentence and you'll find that it's true for every title. Try and change the word "Motorstorm" to "GoW" and "racing" to "shooting". Seriously.
"Rather than worrying about sequels, Sony needs to worry about filling the gaps that still exist in genres (...) the Playstation 3 still has ZERO games available in the Real-Time Strategy genre."
Well, last time I checked Valkyria Chronicles or PixelJunk Monsters (what's more, The Last Guy) were RTSes, and as far as I know a C&C game is coming to the PS3 as well (not to mention Civilization). Strategy games aside, it's interesting what you wrote. From my point of view it seems like the very opposite. The 360 needs to worry about filling the gaps between shooters, RTSes and... shooters again. It's up to you as a consumer. As a "console gamer wanna be PC gamer" I may be happy with those games you mentioned, but I'm more interested in some other experiences: LBP, PS Eye + Tori Emaki, fl0wer, Heavy Rain, PixelJunk Eden, and -- to name a 360 game as well -- Braid.
I don't think any one is arguing that Gears 2 will outsell Resistance 2.
That is an interesting point that Resistance sold well because there wasn't any thing else to buy on PS3 at the time. I don't think Sony is THAT much better off this holiday when it comes to blockbuster titles (LBP could be up there) so the same problem may ring true this holiday for Resistance 2. And you have to factor in that PS3's intalled base is much better now than it was then, so it could do much better this time, too.
No RTSs on the PS3 that is true, but I don't think there are too many RTSs that are system sellers. But they are there if that's your thing, and that could hurt PS3 sales somewhat.
Fabe 1 being one of the best RPGs of all time? I don't know about that one. The game was great, don'tget me wrong, but I don't know if I'd rank it up there that high. Hmm fabe 2 the system seller? I think most people that like the big games like that, already bought their 360. Same thing happened with GTAIV, it didn't sell systems because the people that play games like that already bought their xbox/ps3.
I think most of the article is right, and the 360 price drop is a real manage for Sony.
But I have to disagree with "weaker line-up of exclusive titles (compared to Xbox 360’s Gears of War 2 and Fable 2)". This sentence shows that who wrote the article is not well informed.
There will be at least 3 high quality exclusive titles coming top the PS3 before xmas: Motorstorm 2, Resistance 2 and LBP, and let's not forget about Home that will come out too.
I do think that whoe buys the $199 XBox is the same Joe that buys the Wii, so this model is a competitor to the Wii. The other Joe, wants a console with a HDD, and for this Joe, size matters. So he buys an Elite or a PS3.
Morning news:
"the 120GB hard drive seeing a $30 reduction. Previously at $179 [...] now slightly more reasonably* priced at $149" (via Kotaku)
So MS is pressing in every way imaginable. Still, the HDD pricing is a daylight robbery, and I'm not so sure that the $199 plus $149 is an irresistible bargain, even for the average Joe.
We'll see, we'll see.
1. You're underestimating the success of Little Big Planet.
2. You're underestimating the success of Uncharted bundles with the 160gb PS3 intact.
3. You're underestimating the fact that bluray movies such as The Dark Knight will be released soon enough, so that will also move consoles...considering that people also have games to play and movies as well.
4. Where is the other PS3 exclusives? White Knight Chronicles, Motorstorm: Pacific, Resistance 2...I mean, seriously? The best you can say is that the PS3 lineup is weak? Uh-huh, I think not.
5. Even with a $50.00 pricecut, Microsoft still didn't outsell Sony. When LBP comes out next month, it will have a huge chance of moving consoles and software.
This article is flawed and illogical.
how do we measure success on exclusives?
The fair thing is attach rate/sales ratio. So i wont be looking for total numbers but the attach rate.
Simply love these kinda sentences:
"weaker line-up of exclusive titles (compared to Xbox 360’s Gears of War 2 and Fable 2), and a less popular online network"
LittleBig Planet, Valkyria Chronicles, or Resistance 2 don't exist right?
Oh and the less popular online network is a myth at this point.
"Currently, Sony's de facto standard 80GB PS3 retails in the U.S. for $399, while Microsoft's range of Xbox 360s now start at $199."
Definitely. And the $199 Xbox 360s de facto need a $ 120 HDD plus some small change for the Wi-fi.
The larger HDD and integrated WiFi would be a selling point if Sony actually advertised it. Which they don't.
As for LBP, its kind of a wildcard. It looks cools, it sounds cool, and its gotten a lot of good press. But will it sell systems? Sony certainly thinks so. If they're right, they'll probably dominate this fall, as the target audience is alot broader than Gears2 or Fable 2. If they're wrong, Resistance 2 is really the only direct competition to Gears2 that the PS3 has this fall, and regardless of the quality of either game, we all know Gears2 will sell more.
LittleBig Planet being the oxymoron that it is and all is being hyped and I'm sure its a great game, but by no means will in contend with Gears 2, same with Valkyria Chronicles. Those games are arguably niche. Resistance 2 is the only game that I think could be considered a contender, but will still get smashed by Gears, as will everything else. And I would have to argue with your statement about live not being more popular. I guess it depends on how you rate popular, if by subscribers (and live subsribers have to pay, consider that when counting subscribers, PS3 owners just have to hook up to the internet) then the 360 would be more popular, if only counting Sony fans, then I guess PSN would be more popular. Numbers don't lie.
indeed numbers dont lie...
In Jan of this year Xbox live hit 10 million subscribers.
In may, Sony announced that they had 2.8 million people in the US signed up to PSN and 1 million in Japan... couldnt find the europe numbers.
Unless microsoft stopped getting new subscribers, and Europe has another 6 million ps3 owners who have all signed up to PSN... well.... that would make Live the more popular choice.
If anyone can find the full numbers for PSN and xbox live more recently that may help.
(and just to show that this is a neutral thing, I am on xbox live and psn).
@Nickgamertag01
PS360 owner here. i agree with some of what you said (basically that Gears 2 will probably be the highest selling game this year's end), but on the whole i disagree. 360 has Gears 2, Fable 2 and L4D. on sheer numbers (discounting arcade games on XBL and PSN), PS3 simply has more exclusives this year. one of those is from a multimillion selling, well established franchise (Socom Confrontations), two are sequels to games that sold 3 million+ on a limited install base (Resistance 2 and Motorstorm Pacific Rift), and the other is a game that's received more hype than any other game this generation (LittleBigPlanet). on a game per game basis Gears 2 will probably sell the most out of any game (including Fable 2), but still, at this point in the generation it's asinine to say that PS3's exclusives won't compete.
these are factual numbers. saying which system has the BEST exclusives is arbitrary. personally i'm waiting on Gears 2 and Fable 2 more than any other exclusive, but PS3 does have more exclusives that i'm waiting on (pretty much all the aforementioned games, plus Valkyria Chronicles and Wipeout HD...which i hope comes out this year).
@Elex
It sounds like Sony does have a pretty good lineup of solid exclusives. None of them are quite on the Halo, GTAIV, Gears, God of War, Metal Gear level, but for PS3 about as good as it gets when matched up with those other huge titles. So I can see why PS3 owners feel that way. if we're talking about console sales, I think we all can probably agree that the 360 will win the holiday season (if not for exclusives and multiplatform games, then price) . So the question is, is how do we measure the success of exclusives as some other people have suggested in this thread? If by software sales, I'd say the 360 (which isn't fair because of the more than double install base in US). By total software sales of those exclusives combined for each system then compared with eachother? Hmmm...again, probably MS (but larger installed bass again). What about systems moved, that has nothing to do with install base? Well, considering as I mentioned before, price alone may alow the 360 to win that battle regardless of exclusives (I'm specifically referring to this holiday). So I think the argument of sales is moot, but as far as quality exclusives, it may be a wash.
So, you're right, I may have been overzealous making the statement PS3 exclusives won't compete, but be the end of 08, it'll definitely be a close race between those games (total combined software sales for exlusives per system any way).
Just love your TPSes / FPSes right? ;)
Niche titles or not, Gears 2 or Resistance 2 won't hold a candle to LBP, mark my word.
LBP doesn't have nearly the amount of hype and recognition as a title like Gears 2. Of course it looks amazing, and yeah, it will probably get awesome critical acclaim: but for the average Joe, GOW or titles like it simply make more sense. Why do you think Madden sells so well every year? Not because it's a better title than LBP or MGS4, but because of brand recognition and a broader appeal to consumers.
I heard many of the same statements when MSG4 was about to be released. 1 month later, it was off of the top 5 (and in some countries, even the top 10) software charts. You'll pardon me if I don't share your enthusiasm just yet. Saw the trailer at my friend's place, and I don't see what all the fuss is about.
I do, but I like other games, too. Considering getting a PS3 for flower, how's that for niche?
If you'r referring to creativity and originality, you're right. If you're referring to sales? Not so much. The game seems really cool, and all the you tube-like features are reminicent of Halo 3's theatre mode which is awesome. So, I'm sure the game will just be eatin up (in a good way) by critics and gamers alike. Not doggin the game, I just feel it won't sell 5 million copies that gears will eventually sell.
I disagree with you only about the sales potential of LittleBigPlanet... I may be completely wrong, since we are only speculating and gambling here, but I personally believe LBP has about as much mass-market appeal as a Spore or Animal Crossing. Only the price point of the system it runs on plays against it. I believe It will be up there as one of the top 10 sellers of Christmas imho (with Fallout 3, Spore, the new Guitar Hero, Rock Band 2, the new CoD, GTA IV -indeed-, Animal Crossing Wii, Wii Music, Wii Sports 2 and yes, you are right, GoW 2) and I'd say it will beat the 5 millions unit mark in worldwide holiday sales. I don't think it's niche at all. Quite the opposite, I think it will eventually stay in collective memory as a phenomenal generation-defining moment. But again, only time will tell who is right on this one ;)
You're right, we are speculating and you could be right about LBP. It would be nice to see a game like that do that well. Viva Pinata although quite a different kind of game reviewed well (wasn't nearly as innovative) but I think it being a little too different then the typical game made it hard to find a foothold in the market. I'm afraid LBP will have a large impact only on those that follow gaming and already know what games to look for. If Sony puts a lot of marketing muscle behind it (to the uninformed the game could look in commercials as a typical kiddie side scrolling platformer, which WE all know is not true, but to the masses it could appear that way) I think the game could do quite well. 5 million worldwide seems a bit of a stretch, but as you say we're gambling, and I don't think I'd put my money on it either way. Top 10? It should make the top ten of the year, with "games" like Wii Play selling a gazillion copies though, it could be a tight race. We'll see.
I meant Christmas top 10, as in say, accounting sales between october 1st till december 31th worlwide. I am sorry I left out the obvious WiiPlay, in my head, I can't seem to count it as a game, marketing wise. I tend to see it as a Wiimote with a 10 dollar software attached to it. But in pure sell-throughput,, you're right the SKU will indeed chart in, attaching itself to about 80% of new wii systems purchases... But are they really buying the game? Or the Wiimote and the sales rep tells them then they should consider the Wiiplay bargain and they listen?
Gotta be careful in underestimating games like WiiPlay, I can't get my girlfriend off of it, and the only other game she likes is Gran Tourismo.
Same here ;) Can't get neither the girlfriend nor the daughter off it and I'll admit I sometimes play along.
I'm not claiming nobody plays it. It's more that I am wondering out loud if so many people would have BOUGHT or even looked at the game if it wasn't for the Wiimote bundled with it. As in: how many more did it sell at 49.90 with the wiimote packed in than it would have sold at 9.90 USD without the wiimote? I am not even saying it's bad game or anything, I only happen to think its statistics have been insanely boosted by marketing tricks.
I suppose we'll only know if they release a wii play 2 with no remote bundled, but even then people could be buying the sequel because they liked the original that they only picked up for the remote! Er.. maybe it'll remain a mystery.
After a few horrible weeks (and i mean horrible) Sony will cave and drop price. look for that to happen before Black Friday.
" he told Edge on Thursday. "...Going into this holiday season, the PS3 will not only have the highest price point, but also the smallest software library, weaker line-up of exclusive titles (compared to Xbox 360’s Gears of War 2 and Fable 2), and a less popular online network."
I guess 3 out of 4 aint bad... lets be fair and give sony credit for the one and only thing they are doing right.
"lets be fair and give sony credit for the one and only thing they are doing right."
Which is???
"lets be fair and give sony credit for the one and only thing they are doing right."
Which is???
there not rushing on their relses dates. 360 looks like it was rushed lots of them break down didnt they test them ??the fans are loud sound like it was rush to get on the shelfs.
sony are taking time for things like ps home .which is probley why they reslse ps3 1 year later to get the consle just right .360 is un reliable and for that reason ps3 is better and can get better 360 is using all its power that why most of them are breaking down easily and over heat .
my mates like 360 better even thought they dont have them most the time and one even had to buy a new arcaade one and kept the old hardware
Ok, maybe MS could have taken a bit more time with the 360 before they released it, but the initial hardware problems are a thing of the past (for the most part) so that's not really an issue any more. But MS's haste isn't an excuse for Sony to not be offering (so far) a high quantity of high quality software that make the PS3 more desirable for the non-faithful. And Home being delayed over, and over, and over again has probably more to do with the difficulty of pulling off such an ambitious project than it does refining it. MS has had 6 years improving and refining live, and Sony thinks they can just pull something that complicated off in such a short period of time. There's a reason why we Xbox owners continue to pay for live, it works very well, and like wine, has only gotten better with age. Sony's wine hasn't even hit the barrels yet.
"my mates like 360 better even thought they dont have them most the time and one even had to buy a new arcaade one and kept the old hardware"
I don't know what that even means. He had to buy an "arcaade" one, was he yelling that at you when he told you? And you say he kept the old hardware? So he bought an arcade 360 but kept his old 360, too?
exclusives and PSN
There are some exlusives on PSN exclusives that are finally catching my eye. I've really been waiting for an excuse to get a PS3 (traditional xbox-er) and Resistance 2 and Flower might just do it, we'll see.
I do think the PS3 has some solid exclusives coming up, but I think the holiday shopping season will come down to price (when considering console sales) rather than content.