The Great Console Race

The following graph shows the growth of the American installed bases of the Nintendo Wii, Microsoft Xbox 360, and the Sony PlayStation 3.



Last winter, at the request of the editor, we produced (but did not publish) some estimates of system sales through the end of 2008. As part of that work, we noted that a year or two of a system's sales can be roughly estimated by a linear function. Using data since November 2006 produces the following trends through the end of 2008:



This is a primitive model, but it does indicate the general direction that each system is headed relative to its competitors. Obviously the gap between the Xbox 360 installed base and the Wii installed base has been closing. The PlayStation 3 continues to lag behind the other two consoles. Even in the short term, these models can be poor predictors – a price drop or the launch of a big game (like Grand Theft Auto 4 next month) could easily push a system's sales far above what the linear model suggests.