Publishers make their sales predictions by looking closely at the biggest competitor games in their sector.  Comparative genre data is king as they set their retail pitches, marketing efforts and even release dates.

Edge takes a look at each of the major genres and compares the games most likely to be leaders over the next six months. Beginning with the big-ticket daddy of them all - shooters  (which we’ll define as anything where the primary interaction with the environment is firing a projectile). We've broken our list into sub-sections -  traditional shhoters, hybrid shooters and retro shooters. Games are ranked according to, what we feel, is a title's market-power, sales potential and likely critical impact.

 

Traditional Shooters

Games of a linear or level-based structure where an overwhelming amount of the playtime takes place in a firefight. A heavy emphasis on multiplayer is also de rigueur here. Saying that these games are direct descendents of Doom is something of an oversimplification, but gives about the right idea.




1. Gears of War 2
X360
Microsoft/Epic Games
November 7
Every Christmas since launch the Xbox 360 has received a shooting title that dominates the Live charts for at least the next six months. For 2008 the game most likely to receive this honor is Gears of Wars 2. Its predecessor was the alpha shooter for much of 2007, moving millions and millions of discs—so this sequel would do well on that fact alone, but GoW2 is loading up on a variety of widely varying multiplayer modes just in case. Add nice sticky marketing buzzwords like “chainsaw dueling” and “meat shield,” and Gears of War 2 becomes an ideal candidate for a quadruple platinum killer app. It’s the action game to beat this holiday.




2. Quantum of Solace
X360/PS3/PC/Wii/PS2/NDS
Activision/Treyarch
November 4
While 007 as a games brand has enjoyed a nice, necessary fallow period, 007 the movie brand has been completely revitalized thanks primarily to Daniel Craig’s sizzling portrayal. So the game will get a huge boost from releasing next to the upcoming film, especially when you keep in mind that Bond hasn’t had a movie tie-in game since the PS1 days. The product is additionally helped along by an incredible Craig model and the technical wizardry of the Call of Duty 4 engine, both of which give the game a high-budget sheen. The biggest problem here is that it’s releasing right into the GoW versus Resistance battle; though that will cut into its sales, the markets don’t overlap completely, and this will still go platinum easily.




3. Resistance 2
PS3
Sony/Insomniac
November 4
Resistance dominated an underpopulated PS3 launch environment and became the console’s defining shooting experience, moving over two million copies worldwide in the process. That the game is now an established brand selling to an extant PS3 installed base should make it greatly exceed its predecessor sales-wise, and some unmatched (on console, anyway) multiplayer features, including 60-player versus play and eight-player co-op, differentiate it from everything else in the sector. It has direct competition in the form of Gears of War 2, but these two exclusives co-existed in 2006, and they’ll do so again now. Pity for everyone else that tries to hang with them, though.




4. Call of Duty: World at War
PS3/X360/PS2/Wii/PC/NDS
Activision/Treyarch
Holiday 2008
If Call of Duty: World at War has trouble gaining traction in the market it will only be because the franchise is a victim of its own success. The untold millions addicted to Modern Warfare know very well that Infinity Ward is the real home of the series, and that Treyarch is, for lack of a better term, the ‘B’ team. And after a hugely successful jump to a contemporary setting, a return to World War II feels retrograde and unnecessary. But this is still a Call of Duty game—even the worst games in the series are still great by any measure, resulting in a large, captivated audience. World at War will be another sure multimillion seller in this seemingly glutted genre.




5. Killzone 2
PS3
Sony/Guerilla
February 2009
Sony’s white elephant has something approaching a real release window now, and it’s a curious one—early 2009 puts it right in the afterglow of Resistance’s massive online battles. So being pushed out a little further won’t hurt this one at all—after all the mythology and debate built up around this release, nobody’s going to forget it, and it’s going to do just fine for itself regardless of quality. There’s no way that as a game it will live up to its marketing glamour, because nothing could.  But if it does meet the market’s baseline expectation for a good FPS experience and even if it comes out in Q1, it will probably still sell itself into seven digits before it becomes a Greatest Hits title.




6. Brothers in Arms: Hell’s Highway
X360/PS3/PC
Ubisoft/Gearbox
September 23
World War II game fans should be charmed by the potential of Gearbox bringing its authentic storytelling prowess to Operation Market Garden, that famous, dramatic Allied defeat. It’s the perfect setting for a style that has paid dividends in the past. It’s also been nice to see the market reward previous iterations in the franchise for its accurate, respectful portrayal of the greatest generation. Given that players haven’t seen a strong WWII shooter come out under a reputable brand for some time, it’s more than likely that trend will continue.       




7. Project Origin
X360/PS3/PC
Warner Bros/Monolith
Holiday 2008
Out of all the shooters in this subcategory, Project Origin could have the hardest time getting to a million. It’s the sequel to the successful F.E.A.R, but that franchise is not nearly as large as some of Project Origins’s competition—and thanks to some snarled IP ownership issues, Origin doesn’t even get the benefit of the F.E.A.R. brand. And yet this looks like a strong sequel, which takes the chilling atmosphere and frenetic shootouts of the original while expanding on both the variety and the nightmarish world. The game’s adherence to horror tropes gives it something of a competitive advantage, but Project Origin could still get pushed out.