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Has the Wii Bubble Burst?
Nintendo’s runaway success may be entering its most difficult period yet.
As speculation circulates on how UK retailers will respond to the raised Wii trade price, one analyst is pondering how much appeal the Wii will have over the coming set of months.
“We are looking very closely at all the platforms for any signs of slowdown,” says Ed Barton, games analyst at Screen Digest. “We’ve made a number of channel-checks and had many conversations with platform manufacturers, and our research shows us that in North America the demand/supply ratio for the Wii has balanced out since the beginning of the year.”
Demand heavily outweighing supply has become a trait of Nintendo’s home console ever since its 2006 launch, though there are several factors which suggest that the Wii boom may soon go bust.
Sale performance for the console is already in steep decline in Japan; falling at a greater rate than the average console during the dry post-Christmas period. More importantly, the system also is showing little sign of recovery as its competitors begin to pick up the pace.
Barton believes that the Wii’s current software line-up could be a decisive factor in the Wii’s outlook: “There’s a real absence of a major games release from Nintendo in the next few months. MadWorld has obvious appeal for hardcore gamers, but this is way outside the kind of software which has typically succeeded on Wii. This isn’t going to help Nintendo.”
“If we look at the software line-up, as well as recent supply/demand data, and add to it the chance that the price of the console may have to go up in a key market, you have in front of you a number of things which will not help Nintendo succeed with the Wii in the way that it has for two years.”
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What utter rot, Chicken Little sensationalism at its worst.
it just goes to show, you can't be too careful.
We still purchase quite a few games for the 360 and PS3, but we typically rent most of our Wii games because they're just not worth owning. My kids generally spend more time playing old GameCube games on the Wii than Wii games.
i love videogames but i hate the wii it is a blemish on the ass of videogame history
while agreeing with some of the comments above, i'd say one (more) reason for this wii "bubble" deflating is... ummm... aren't we in a recession in a few places around the world? sure, the wii has a ton of class-Z shovelware mixed in with choice cuts plus some good/great titles here (and on the way), but the fact is people aren't buying as many games as they were last year.
however, people simply aren't buying as many games as they were a few months ago and that's for all platforms*. clipboard in hand, I poked my pointy head into a few game shops and other toy retailers here and asked how game sales have been over the past few months and everyone says they're down with the exception of some really hyped titles that were either pre-ordered and still well-stocked at each place i popped into.
*(yeah, yeah, yeah, capcom shipped what, 4 million copies of resident evil 5 (not for the wii, of course), however, as with any news release of that order, it's a bit of funky cold deception in the end. how many have sold and how many have been returned for credit since then? i saw a stack of about 20 at one game store and when i asked if they were waiting to be picked up, the clerk told me they were all returns!)
I knew the Nintendo box was doomed when it outsold it's competitors every week for around two years. I mean Nintendo must be really pissed making a profit on every unit sold since launch and topping the hardware charts for such a long time.
I'd be fuming.
I knew the Nintendo box was ultimately doomed when I happened to show up at a big electronics store in my area soon after Wii's release and there was a line out the door of middle aged women waiting to buy the silly thing. Not exactly your target gaming demographic.
Predictably, they all soon got bored of Wii Fit, and probably never bought another game.
"Predictably, they all soon got bored of Wii Fit, and probably never bought another game."
And you've confirmed this prediction how exactly? Or are you just making a generalization based on your own personal feelings and have no proof on which to confirm or deny your statement?
Wait until Christmas.
Bubble is certainly the wrong word to use. Difficult period? Nintendo are the only one of the big three who set out to make profit on the console, which they are still doing, I'm sure the shareholders are pleased they invested where they did.
Let me also point to Edge's article 'The 100 Best Games To Play Today' where 7 of the top 10 are playable on the Wii. Would anyone in their right mind, really steer someone currently alien to gaming towards another console?
Wii is a console that I bought right away because it sounded cool, but it was a big letdown.
I will never forget the time when the Wii first launched, and the salesman in the store was telling a dad and his young son about how you could play Madden football on the Wii. He said you push on the controller to take the snap as if you really got the snap. And then he said that you throw the ball using a real motion of throwing. The eyes of the dad and his son lit up with amazement...What a shame the Wii doesn't actually play that way--there is far more to it than that. It is often confusing to me to use the D-pad and the buttons in a precise way when using pumping motions to throw the football.
Overall, the Wii was a big disappointment because we are living in the era of high-definition right now. Enthusiasts definitely agree with me. But, the older people, females, people at exercise clubs, and young kids who don't care about HD are the people the Wii targets. So that is why Nintendo sells a lot of hardware, but a relatively small amount of software in comparison.
"Enthusiasts definitely agree with me"
It's like I'm watching Brass Eye. Genius.
-rofl- Brilliant, thats made my day!
I wonder how many people on here even know what Brass Eye is. (without googling for it guys and gals!)
I don't. Enlighten.
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=9031532194656768989&ei=u-i_SYO...
oh dear.
I remember the fuss that episode generated when it came out, the Daily Mail were foaming at the mouth.
Chris Morris = Genius
Did you know he's written a sitcom about a jihadi terrorist cell in Northern England? The man has balls the size of a small cornish fishing community.
The Wii burst years ago to me when I came to the realization that there aren't many good games for it that meet my personal standards. Not that I have "high class" tastes or anything like that. I just like what I like.
-SMG
-Metroid Prime 3
-SSBB
And the only game I have ANY plans on purchasing are Punch Out
The Wii is the most disappointing console i've ever owned. It's second only to the Atari Jaguar.
I'm selling the Wii and now seems like a good time to do so as the system is getting a rrp increase here in the UK.
Man, it's weird to me seeing more avid gamers still down on the Wii, particularly recently with the releases of MadWorld and House of the Dead: Overkill. I'm having more fun on the Wii at the moment than any other console.
Fair enough. But would you agree that there have been somewhat long gaps between games the traditional/hardcore gamer would enjoy (the games, not the gaps)? Maybe longer than the gaps 360/PS3 owners normally have to deal with? I don't own a Wii anymore so I don't know what kind of Wii-Ware games have been released over the last 4-5 months.
If you base a company's performance based on Japanese sales alone then the 360's bubble burst years ago.
Like it's been mentioned there just isn't any good software at the moment. Mad World will be good but any hardcore gamer that wants to play it will already have a Wii.
The PS3 doesn't have to worry about software as much because it has the bonus of being a Blu-ray player as well.
I loved the Wii when it came out, and it is an incredible business achievement by anyone's measure. But it's only fair to point out the problems. So the Wii is phenomenally succesful, and continues to sell well. And It's also helped to define, if not create, a whole new market for gaming. But what next?
Well, the hardware can't continue to shift at the same level, because the supply will inevitably outstrip demand for any console; the question is when, not if, the sales will decline. And I have to say, while I've slowly grown a library for the other two consoles I have, the Wii has been gathering dust pretty much since I finished Super Mario Galaxy. I'm not exactly excited about any forthcoming titles, either.
That price hike? A lot of people thought that, when the pound was strong, all the consoles were over-priced in sterling. Nintendo don't need to cut the price to sell the console, but they need to be aware of the arrogance that a price hike implies when they already price higher in sterling than they ever did in dollars.
And lastly, if we're on industry analysis, isn't the Wii's greatest strength also potentially its Achille's heel? Gamers spend on games regardless of the market and the strength of the pound, but who knows how this new market will react? I doubt the install rates will be anything like the same for the Wii as a family toy as it is for other manufacturers. And if the new users desert it, analysts are right to predict difficult times.
So I don't think it's unfair to ask the questions this article does. I also get a little riled at the fact that people defend the console as if brand loyalty was more important than open debate. it's not which box you own, or what the nasty man says about its popularity that counts: it's what you do with the thing once you've bought it.
i don't think anyone's nasty, me. but apparently it's terrible bad to say naughty things about the wii...
I would say that's untrue. There are bad points to the Wii like the fact it has a lot of shit software from 3rd parties trying to cash in.
That said writing sensational stories that have little merit and are geared towards grabbing a lot of attention is just a waste of time.
Sorry, it's may be an attention-grabbing headline, but the content isn't sensational. Sales are down, software's not great, worth a feature, then? I'd say so.
Rumours of the Wii's demise may be somewhat exaggerated, I agree. But it's especially pertinent to reappraise its performance in the context of price rises and changing consumer habits.
Michael Salvatori,
Did I just get called nasty man?!?
are you a nasty man?!
In what context?
No, but you mentioned the Wii being called out for being "popular" and I thought you were talking about me calling the Wii a fad which I meant in jest. No, I'm not a nasty man, that's kinda a funny thing to call someone; first time I've heard that on these forums.
All I meant is that, in a few of the posts people were treating the writer of the story as if he was in some way personally against the Wii. So I just used 'nasty man' as shorthand for the implied big bad sensationalist villain that some posters were getting at,. It wasn't name calling, I'm a bit more resident evil swear yourslf fit overkill about that kind of thing (have i confused 2 wii games i'm not interested in? oops).
So yeah. I was just trying to refer to that kind of tone of voice and point out how childish it sounds, because there's so much of that 'my console is better than your console (and I'll set my big brother on you)' stuff about, you know.
It wasn't aimed directly at anyone (and I agreed with your posts!). Although if you do know any nasty men (particularly any nasty men who say bad things about my favourite console) then tell me where they live. I'll set my brother on them. That'll teach insert-name-of-journalist to say bad things about sony/nintendo/microsoft et cetera
Shock Horror!!?
Perhaps a better headline for this article is:
"Has the Wii's Bubblehead market burst?"
Japanese media describes the demographics of wii vs ps3/360 buyers
I'll join the queue on the left please
Hey sweetie pie ;-)
Good to see that most commentors can see through this article. I don't understand how more Wii's being in the North American supply channel can be interpreted as the "Wii bubble bursting" as opposed to Nintendo finally sorting out the Wii supply issue successfully. I don't understand how the UK price hike to retailers can be considered the "Wii bubble bursting" when Nintendo stated clearly that the pound is taking during this world economic slump and would hike the price accordingly to stay profitable in that region. I don't understand how slowing Wii sales in Japan can be interpreted as the "Wii bubble bursting" when the Wii hasn't had any notable software released in such a software driven market yet this year, hasn't had any notable bundled software, hasn't had any new colors released, and hasn't had *ONE* price drop yet. Nintendo has so much wiggle room in Japan is crazy. But the author doesn't put anything in context. Nevermind the fact that Wii sales are up worldwide year-over-year even with the Japanese slump. Nevermind that Wii outsells the competition worldwide without ever having a price drop. Yup, nevermind all logical and truthful information in order to continue with the doom and gloom...
Fernicum is right. The author will jump at the chance to be presumptious, draw rather silly conclusions, and sensationalize any piece of information if it means he'll get to make headlines like "Has the Wii Bubble Burst?" Wonder how he'll try to spin NPD this Thursday. On the other hand, this type of doom and gloom is expected from industry analyst. But the Wii continues to prove them wrong time and again. They just refuse to learn their lesson.
There was never a Wii shortage globally speaking. Nintendo simply preferred to sell them elsewhere rather than North America while the value of the dollar was low. Now that the dollar has rebounded, presto! Ample supplies of Wii abound.
Brian
www.brianwoods.com
Man, you guys are moving backwards! Detractors are being less creative these days as this was the same excuse used by many as far back as a year ago. You haven't done any research and basically pulling all this stuff out of nowhere.
If you look at Nintendo's shipment forcasts and total sell through, you'll see that they've been selling everything they shipped for the last couple of years. Ninty is scheduled to have shipped 50 million Wiis by the end of the current fiscal year (which ends this month) and sell through is probably somewhere around 48 million worldwide. That leaves a good number of Wiis on shelves and in the supply chain and more that have yet to be shipped. That's a pretty good number. Keep in mind that Nintendo shipped more Wiis than Microsoft has shipped 360's and Sony has PS3's. There are ample supplies now because Nintendo increased shipments to 2.4 million Wii's/month (up from 1.6 million/month) and the supply and demand is finally showing signs of equilibrium (feel free to see Edge's own archives for news on shipment increases). You can control supply, you can't control demand!
North America is definitely the strongest market for the Wii (The US consumer IMO happens to be the most succeptible to fads and trends). Until we see a significant sales drop there, a drop in one of the smallest game markets doesn't mean a whole lot. 700k systems a month in the US alone? Sorry, no worries for Nintendo...yet. ;)
I live in the UK and we are no different when it comes to fads & trends. Nintendo was a dirty word pre Wii and now it's the country's console darling as the PS2 was before.
European market is just as strong for the Wii. In Nintendo's financials, Europe only ranked about 4 or 5 million below total North American sales, IIRC. The Wii is one hell of a fad! Even though the fact that it's been selling well for over two years, been at the same price point since launch, and sales increased YoY totally negates the "fad" arguement, let's just ignore that and keep it between us! I don't see how it's really that hard to comprehend that people really do like the Wii. Is that when people enter the geographical sphere of the US they become susceptible to "fads and trends"? Wonder if that can be scientifically explained... lol! If I cross the border to Canada or Mexico... would I be less supceptible to "fads and trends"? lol!
I know the European market is a strong gaming market, even for the 360 and PS3. I just used the US as an example so I can take a jab at the Wii. It has the appearance of a fad I think, but the fact that it's done so well for so long would make it seem otherwise. People like the Wii, they like bowling, they like Wii Fit. If I hear another co-worker talking about Wii Fit I'm going to punch them in their overgrown belly (would I pluralize belly in that instance? Neither of them sound right lol)..
I do think there are some mindless US consumers that will buy whatever is popular though (whether or not that's the case with the Wii which some of it may, but I can't imagine that actually could last over 2 years...could it?).
I was being half serious with that comment; I just like to take jabs at the Wii from time to time. But, I did defend it by saying that it's still selling ridiculously strong and as most others have pointed out in this thread, the story really was rubbish.
You bought a Wii after you immigrated here from Zimbabwa and saw how the Americans loved it so much didn't you Ken? As soon as your foot crossed the border you bought an ipod, Wii, Firby, and an Elmo doll. ^^
All we do is play PES '08 on Wii in Harare, son!
I see what you're saying, and yes, there are some mindless consumers out there. But by now, I think it's safe to say that people are buying the system because they want one. It wouldn't have sold this well for this long. I know it's hard to believe, being as though the Wii doesn't have "achievements, [you can't] look at [your] friend's game list and what they play, no bio, no real multiplayer games or voice chat. No movie marketplace" etc. But all those things aren't that important to most people it seems.
Lol, nice touch. I guess to about 50 million people those features aren't important afterall. But 50 million people shouldn't be Nintendo's concern, they should be catering to me and all the other hardcore gamers cause we're the most important gaming community, not to mention the best...
:D
I was hoping people took that as a joke. ^^
So the ps3 sells 20K more units in Japan the week of a huge release (re5), while the wii has sold the last few years almost independently of any software coming out- and sold at levels of demand that have been unprecedented. And just now, supply has finally caught up with demand.
What would happen if the wii had a price drop?
Exactly.
Wii goes to £129/£99 = Frenzy.
Hell, even Wii fit goes to £40 = Frenzy
But there won't be a price drop for a while considering they are having to raise the price of their console by around £20. Perhaps in a couple of months, perhaps not.
Good games would help. A lot!
Potential "good games" exclusive for the Wii include:
- Punch Out
- The Conduit
- Dragon Quest 10
- Resident Evil: Dark Side Chronicles
- Muramasa: The Demon Blade
- Sin and Punishment 2
- Deadspace Extraction
- Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles - The Crystal Bearers
- Pikmin 3
- The Legend of Zelda Wii