How significant is Sony's advantage in the 3D marketplace?
Every element of 3D production is covered by part of Sony's reach. On the business and professional side of it, we can help with the creation of content, and then we can sell the devices that you need to play it on - PlayStation 3, 3D TV, Blu-Ray player - and we have the content streams from music, motion pictures and games. We've got a foot in the camp of every part of the creative process to get 3D through to consumers.
You've quoted the statistic that there will be a 3D TV in 40 per cent of homes by 2014. How accurate do you think that is?
Whether that's right or wrong is always down to whether you think the numbers are correct, I think it's probably a little on the high side, but nevertheless, it's based on a few factors. Number one - with all new technology, the tech starts at a price, and then when you get new products out into the marketplace there's a shift down in production costs. And that's the same with absolutely all new technology, so I'm sure in that number they’re looking at the major expense, which is the screen, falling over the next four years - as indeed it has done with plasmas, LCD screens and now with newer LED screens.
So it will start as a very early adopter marketplace, as CDs did way back in the '70s when people asked, “Are you really expecting me to throw out all my records and buy these newfangled CD things?” The answer turned out to be, “Yes” - but it took time. All new technology takes some time to get established - there has to be a really good reason for people to invest in it, and in the end it comes down to whether the content is good enough. Rather than having 3D for 3D's sake in a product, it has got to add something to the experience to make it a must have.
I think, to his credit, that's what [James] Cameron did when he created the 3D version of Avatar. I saw that in a standard cinema, and I saw it in 3D down at the Apollo in London and I've seen it on an ordinary DVD, and the difference in the experience is marked. It's still perfectly acceptable on a 2D format but when you see it in a 3D format, it adds to the experience and it just blows you away. Were seeing that sort of effect on 3D versions of games as well. When you see Killzone 3 in 3D you don't want to go back to 2D any more. We all see in 3D - it's fundamentally the right way of seeing stuff. It's only that the content creation has been, up until now, clumsy - it's been about the effect more than how it adds to the experience.
Will Sony be the only early entrants in this space for gaming? Do you expect competition?
Nintendo have already announced the 3DS, so I think it's very much on people's radar now. We now have the technology to enable us to do this well, and I think once there's an opportunity for creators to have a road to market for their stuff, then you start having the uplift in content that we need. When we talk to our third-party publishers, most of them have got a 3D product.
How does Sony plan to support developers in creating good 3D content?
We've been working around 3D now for about two years, and one of our guys in the Liverpool studio, Mick Hocking, has actually run a group to specifically look at 3D in gaming, so they've been testing over the last two years. Part of our process for helping people to create content for our platform is to share the experience that we get with third-party publishers, making sure that they make good product.
I want the product for PlayStation 3 to be the best available. Once people see a valuable marketplace in 3D, there could also be middleware that helps with the process, works out the kinds of camera angles that you need and some of the techniques that you would use to make sure that the 3D effect was subtle.
Do you think developers will take advantage of 3D up-conversion?
3D up-conversion does work, but what we need to be very careful of is rather than adapting things to 3D for the sake of it, you go back to the source code and you figure out exactly what you need to do to it to make it a really good 3D experience. I think that those who do the extra work will get the sales, and those who are lazy about it or don't want to invest that much money will be marginal.
Where is the financial upside to 3D for game publishers?
It's in market share. The early adopters in this marketplace will probably be the same kinds of early adopters that got into PlayStation in the very beginning - they want the best technology and they want the best experience. They're willing to pay for that experience and actually quite like being at the front of the queue and having it better than some of their friends. In that situation there is always a reasonably small amount of content that you can choose from. Having a good game in that position means that you will get a high market share.