This is part four of our genre-oriented look at the games market in the near future. For our reasoning and methodology behind this series, please check out the first entry on shooters. Part two on action adventures and part three on RPGs are also available. Today it’s all about so called “casual” games—that’s certainly a misnomer for a broad swath of games, yet it’s still recognized as encapsulating puzzle games, certain types of simulations, whatever Nintendo is doing at any given time, and clones of whatever Nintendo is doing at any given time. The primary characteristic each of these products share is that they are all appealing to the non-traditional gaming demographic, so let’s call them “mass market” instead.

Music

This could well be the hottest sector in the industry at the moment; there’re a huge number of rhythm games in development, and almost all of them have an unique advantage that could help them compete in a glutted marketplace. Come Christmas this genre is going to be a bloodbath, with every bit of market share hard-won.




1. Rock Band 2
X360/PS3/Wii/PS2
MTV Games/Harmonix
September 14 (360 timed exclusive, others follow before Christmas)
It may not be the market sales leader, but the way the genre has been going paints Rock Band as the clear innovator in the field. Rock Band 2 does look lean in features compared to the upcoming Guitar Hero, particularly falling behind in its complete omitting of a user-created option. But Harmonix’s adherence to the concept of the game as a platform practically ensures that all current Rock Band owners will move forward with the sequel, as they get to keep all the expensive DLC and instruments they already have. So that’s over three million potential customers there, which makes for a pretty solid sales base.




2. Guitar Hero: World Tour
X360/PS3/Wii/PS2
Activision/Neversoft
Holiday 2008
Guitar Hero has had brand dominance in the genre for a few years now, but with World Tour it’s bringing the fight back to heir apparent Rock Band. Its addition of the same instruments and band layout as Rock Band does make Neversoft’s latest seem like a copycat, but there’s no denying that World Tour outclasses its competition in highly marketable features—the user music creation and sharing in particular, but the touchpad guitar is also a visible advantage. It too will eke out many millions in sales, but the fierce competition between the two (not to mention secondary competition from Microsoft’s Lips, Konami’s Rock Revolution and Sony’s SingStar franchise) makes picking an overall winner pretty difficult.




3. Wii Music
Wii
Nintendo/Nintendo
Holiday 2008
Perhaps Nintendo was actually waiting for the right time to release its long-awaited music entry. Now that the sector is mature and other games have set the rules, Wii Music feels like a tonic—a completely different take that truly rewards experiencing music, not mastering it. It’s slated to have over 50 instruments, which in theory makes for a great deal of variety and is a nice bullet point in any case. Wii Music’s “no way to fail” ideology is not going to charm anyone  who has already put great effort into learning games like Guitar Hero, Nintendo fan service or not. Nintendo has proven over and over that it doesn’t need what others would consider a coveted demographic to succeed, but all the same, this will probably fall out of the Wii top ten faster than previous big first-party pushes.




4. High School Musical 3: Senior Year Dance
Wii/DS/X360/PS3/PC
Disney/Page 44
Holiday 2008
With the war of plastic guitars taking all the headlines it’s easy to forget those ancient days where the category was ruled by hot dance action. Yet Dance Dance Revolution is still good business, and the subgenre in general thrives among the Wii’s youth set. The many games coming into that field in the fall have to deal with High School Musical 3’s game iteration, however. It’s not going to be an easy task; the theatrical release of the associated film ensures even more penetration for a property that already has considerable momentum, and hands-on previews show the game, or at least the all-important Wii version, is actually quite buttoned up. This will hit seven digits before the price drop no problem.
 



5. Major Minor’s Majestic March
Wii
Majesco/Nana On-Sha
TBA
The first collaboration between Nana On-Sha and Rodney Alan Greenblatt since the Parappa franchise sputtered out, Major Minor is a welcome oddity. It almost comes off as the Sid and Marty Krofft version of Wii Music—it’s somehow brighter, stranger, more delirious than Nintendo’s similar venture, and it bravely loads up on a musical genre as market unfriendly as marching tunes. It’s…not going to sell. It’s not really competing in the same league as the other games on this list, but it too has competition in the form of Samba De Amigo for the Wii. Yet it’s a testament to Majesco and the health of the genre that this is even being tried. Cross your fingers for 100K.

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