Alex St. John, the WildTangent chairman who's made no secret about his stance on the current console model, hammered home his opinion that the console platform is doomed.
"I think you're looking at the last generation of consoles. I don't think Sony or Microsoft is going to make another console. The problem is that great graphics, which is what used to differentiate a console, are a commodity. Everybody's got it. You can't buy a PC that doesn't have Xbox or Nintendo-quality graphics anymore."
He noted how World of Warcraft, a PC-only MMO, made more revenue than all Xbox 360 software combined in 2007.
Hilmar Pétursson, CEO of EVE Online developer CCP chimed in, "Really the only value proposition of the console was the lack of piracy on the console versus the PC." But he claimed console gaming is losing that feather in its cap, noting how online PC gaming is much more piracy-resistant than packaged gaming.
Both St. John and Pétursson's businesses are PC-centric, so their slant away from console gaming may be expected. But Lars Buttler, CEO of online PC and console developer/publisher Trion World Networks also noted pitfalls of the console gaming business.
"You also have these huge markets in Asia, Eastern Europe and everywhere else that really don't give a damn about consoles. They're all PC online," he said. "Once you run your big games completely server-side there is really not much need for any specific box [such as a console]."
He didn't downplay consumers' desire to play a game in a living room setting, but suggested that gaming technology will become so commonplace, dedicated gaming consoles as we know them will become a thing of the past.
"The console is as great of an input/output and rendering device as the PC, and if somebody prefers to play a server-based game on the console, we should absolutely let them do it. So it's actually not either/or. But the 'consoles,' the 'PCs,' those things that used to be called 'platforms' will be reduced to input/output and rendering 'devices.'
"The real platform is powerful servers and broadband."
Ken Ripley, EVP of sales for in-game ad firm IGA Worldwide came to consoles' defense, saying the current platforms are centered around consumers more interested in a general entertainment experience rather than core gaming.
"If we think about what's already in peoples' homes, which are 40-, 50-, 60-inch HD televisions centered around a stereo receiver with Dolby 5.1 digital sound, and maybe one of those theater chairs, people want to spend time in front of that kind of entertainment experience. ... As far as entertainment is concerned, there isn't too much more entertaining on that kind of home theater setup than playing a console game."
St. John fired back, saying, "The illusion or the notion of the TV as some sort of religious experience is false... Most console gamers or kids play on their own TV sets in their own bedrooms ... Screens are no longer an extraordinarily rare or scarce thing that you can only find in the living room."
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo have made console connectivity more than just a bullet point this generation. But any PC on the market today comes with the hardware and the assumption that a consumer will connect it to a network. Consoles are still a long way off from PC-like broadband penetration, and many in the industry see a high rate of connectivity as essential for future business models.
"Only 15 percent of the next-generation consoles ever sold will ever be connected to a network ... The vast majority of consoles will never be plugged into broadband by 2012," St. John said, citing a report from IDC.
"If you believe that the next business model for gaming is online models, the MMOs and the advertising, you also believe that you're not going to see a console business going forward," argued St. John, "because it can't compete. It doesn't make sense in a community-based gaming world."
However, Buttler said that there's a reason that most console gamers don't connect: they simply don't have a reason to.
"What reason do you have today to really connect your console? There are no large scale, massively-multiplayer persistent, dynamic content applications on the console today," he said.
IGA's Ripley strongly disagreed with the notion: "Why would somebody connect?" he asked rhetorically. "You've got a Trojan Horse in the living room now. You've got a digital device with a huge amount of memory and a lot of processing power that as we speak, can download HD movies, rent them, purchase games from them, download additional songs for Guitar Hero or Rock Band straight into your game. So there's all kinds of advantages and great attributes for why you would want to be connected right now, and I'll emphasize right now."
But St. John was unmoved. "I don't think that the economics for the console business as we know it works viably anymore. I think you're probably not going to see Sony or Microsoft eager to make any announcements about launching another generation in the next few years..."