This is part three of our genre-oriented look at the games market in the near future. For our reasoning and methodology behind this series, please check out our first entry on shooters. Part two on action adventures is also available. Today we’re looking at RPGs—an increasingly difficult category to find the borders for, as many, many sorts of games now integrate the genre’s addictive stat-building and inventory mechanics. Much like shooters, it’s probably most appropriate to take a “we know them when we see them” approach to defining the field.

Japanese RPGs

Long the bastion of consoles in the west, Japanese RPGs have not had a particularly strong showing this generation—look at any given system, and you’ll be able to count the entire library on one hand. The genre is set to heat up in the next few months however, thanks primarily to a resurgence from market leader Square-Enix.




1. Final Fantasy XIII
X360/PS3
Square-Enix/Square Enix
TBA
A guaranteed million-seller that doubly guaranteed its success by going multi-platform in the west, Final Fantasy is the category juggernaut. Little needs to be said about this franchise’s proven brand strength or the excitement that is building for its first foray into this generation of consoles. It doesn’t have a release date yet, but when it does competitors would be wary to release near it, lest it cannibalize the sales of otherwise perfectly good RPGs.




2. The Last Remnant
X360/PS3/PC
Square-Enix/Square-Enix
November 20
Positioned as the marquee title in Square’s current-gen, non-Final Fantasy lineup, The Last Remnant represents the publisher’s real big push at creating a new brand this generation. Between that, the game’s internal development, and the simultaneous worldwide release, The Last Remnant represents the publisher’s real announcement that it has at last weathered a difficult console transition. Curious that it hasn’t been shown in playable form, then, and a release in the deep, difficult depths of November means quality will factor heavily into its success. Japanese sales should help it get to a million worldwide, though.




3. Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
PS2
Atlus/Atlus
December 9
Could this be the real, honest-to-goodness last quality exclusive the PS2 will ever see? Probably not (after all, the same thing was said about Persona 3) but its placement on the older console does put it in a slightly different niche from the rest of its compeition. It’s also a numbered entry in a venerated series, up against a bunch of shiny new IP, which is of some advantage. In all honesty this isn’t to outsell any of Square Enix’s new flash, which will most certainly have big-budget marketing compared to little Persona. But it will take some sales away from The Last Remnant, and it certainly will do the business for Atlus. However many get made, that’s how many will sell, and fast.




4. Infinite Undiscovery
X360
Square-Enix/Tri-Ace
Sep 2, 2008
Infinite Undiscovery is the first RPG to come out of Square-Enix’s console RPG salvo, and the first current-gen RPG for the publisher period, so it could well have appeal to the fans of the company that have been waiting some time for a new non-handheld product. Developer Tri-Ace also has a surprisingly large built-in fan base, one that bought Star Ocean 3 to the tune of over half a million copies. The game has tough competition from all genres in September but it, like genre stable-mate Lost Odyssey before it, could make a surprise entry into the lower tiers of the Xbox 360 bestseller list for the month. A couple hundred thousand, perhaps?







5. Valkyria Chronicles
PS3
Sega/Sega
November 11
Of all the games in this segment to come out this holiday, Valkyria Chronicles will probably have the hardest time of things. It’s a new IP, it will almost certainly get out-muscled in the marketing department by Square-Enix, and its hand-drawn art style, though admittedly extremely beautiful, has proven a tough sell in the western market in the past. The worst part is, all the hands-on previews have come back universally positive, praising both the art and the unique mix of strategy and action-based combat. If the quality comes back strong, this could become another cult classic in a long line of Sega efforts.




6. Spectrobes: Beyond the Portals
NDS
Disney Interactive/Jupiter
October
Look to history to repeat itself with Spectrobes. The first game manages to beat Pokemon Diamond and Pearl to market and becaming a surprising smash it. The sequel again sees the playing field comfortably Pikachu-free, and pointed improvements to the design combined with brand recognition the first didn’t have should effectively turn Spectrobes into a franchise. It’s not going to be an entirely free ride: the game will have its stiffest competition in Sonic Chronicles, which has significantly more brand recognition. But the kids do apparently love their archaeology, and it wouldn’t be inconceivable to see this in the 300K-500K range.




7. Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice
PS3
NIS America/Nippon Ichi Soft
August 26th
Yes, this is actually a strategy RPG, with grids and turns and all that arcana. And if there were more of this sort of game coming out in the near future, it would have gotten its own category. But it doesn’t do anyone any good to just say “this has no competition in its niche” and be done with it, and the fact is that this game does compete significantly on subject matter with typical JRPGs. In this specific case that might not matter much – the primary concern here is that it’s the first SRPG on the PS3, it’s the biggest brand in Japanese SRPGs, and it’s beating a lot of its competition to market. It’ll sell out its (probably meager) print run in short order.