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Activision May Trump "Unproven" EA Titles at Retail

Kris Graft's picture

By Kris Graft

October 8, 2008

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"But for EA to sell 2-3 million units, they need the mass market to know about Mirror's Edge. That would require a big marketing plan. It's a tougher sell these days."

While game stocks have weathered economic tumult in the past, the games industry is not recession-proof, analyst Todd Greenwald with Signal Hill said Wednesday in an investor note.

"In our opinion, investors' concern about the upcoming holiday season is warranted," he said.

With less money to spend, holiday shoppers are less likely to drop $60 on an unproven franchise, opting to buy familiar brands such as Call of Duty and Guitar Hero, Greenwald argued.

He said in the current economic environment, Activision Blizzard is well-positioned with its line of proven series that include Call of Duty: World at War, World Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, Guitar Hero World Tour, Spider-Man: Web of Shadows and James Bond: Quantum of Solace.

But Greenwald said rival EA will be facing an uphill battle, as consumers are less familiar with new IP like Dead Space and Mirror's Edge.

"It's a tough call. I actually like Dead Space and Mirror's Edge," he told us in a phone interview. "I've heard a lot of great things.

"But on the other hand, they're not proven IP. The core gamers that read Edge and Kotaku all day long, they know all about Mirror's Edge.

"But for EA to sell 2-3 million units, they need the mass market to know about Mirror's Edge. That would require a big marketing plan. It's a tougher sell these days."

Greenwald added, "I'm not saying the games aren't of good quality. But unknown games like that might have a tougher time."

EA’s opinion expectedly differed from Greenwald’s. A rep for the publisher responded in an e-mail, “Having won numerous awards at tradeshows like E3 and other highly-regarded industry forums, new games like Mirror’s Edge and Dead Space have already established large followings with critics and consumers alike.  Both of these titles are among the most anticipated games in the world this holiday season.”

The analyst also argued that Rock Band 2, the annual EA Sports' lineup and Need for Speed Undercover would be tough sells at retail, despite being proven franchises.

"The difference, in my opinion, is that there isn't that much in terms of new features or innovation in this year's versions of [existing EA franchises]."

Greenwald contrasted those titles against Guitar Hero World Tour, "in which there are a ton of new features compared to last year's version."