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Analyst: “EA Has Largely Missed This Console Cycle”

Tom Ivan's picture

By Tom Ivan

October 1, 2009

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Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz has suggested that “EA has largely missed this console cycle”, at the same time lowering sales estimates for a number of the publisher’s games.

Based on Cowen’s channel checks, Creutz reduced his sales estimates for multiplatform racing title Need For Speed: Shift and Wii exclusive shooter Dead Space Extraction by a total of roughly 250,000 units. The analyst expects the latest Need For Speed game to sell slightly under 900,000 copies in the US during its first year on the market, noting that “the franchise is firmly stuck in decline”.

He also lowered his first year US sales estimate for Bioware RPG Dragon Age: Origins by around 550,000 units to slightly less than 1.5 million.

However, Creutz said that EA distributed title The Beatles: Rock Band had “gotten off to a very strong start” and that he expects it to outsell Activision’s Guitar Hero 5 at retail in the US, shifting north of 3.5 million US units in its first year, versus roughly 2.2 million sales achieved by Rock Band 2 in the 12 months following its release.

EA has made a concerted effort to improve software quality ratings and to introduce more new IP into its product portfolio in recent times, balancing out older series and even shifting away from licensed titles. Launched during the competitive 2008 holiday season, new IPs Dead Space and Mirror’s Edge did join the likes of ‬Madden NFL‭ ‬09, ‬FIFA‭ ‬09 and NBA Live‭ ‬09‭ ‬on the publisher’s million-plus-sellers list last year, although the company admitted that it "could have done a better job" scheduling its release calendar. A job advertisement on Linked in has revealed that Dead Space 2 “is in the later stages of pre-production, ready for production in a few months”.

More recently, EA CEO John Riccitiello said that early sales of Madden NFL 10 were “discouraging”.

Jack_'s picture
On October 3rd Jack_ said:

EA's turnaround is one of the best things about this generation. Sure, I haven't exactly enjoyed any of their games, but at least some of them weren't sequels.

Alex Walker's picture
On October 3rd Alex Walker said:

Burnout Paradise, FIFA 09 and FIFA 10 are stunning games. Goes to show that sequels, even annual cash cows can be brilliant.

DubsTF's picture
On October 2nd DubsTF said:

The analyst expects the latest Need For Speed game to sell slightly under 900,000 copies in the US during its first year on the market, noting that “the franchise is firmly stuck in decline”.

I've been saying this ever since EA announced their cockamamie multi-pronged NFS assault: there hasn't been a really quality entry in that franchise since Hot Pursuit on PSone.

And I will reiterate that I think it's a crying shame Criterion Games has been shackled with developing one of the myriad new entries in this crap series. Can't they just make another Burnout, EA? Please?

zerobob's picture
On October 5th zerobob said:

Yeah, on paper Need For Speed games are great, but sadly in practice they are far from it. Even the most basic handling aspects of cars, that even the most arcadey of arcade racers get right, doesn't seem to have been achieved in any NFS game.

I say handling....I think a phrase that more accurately describes the way the cars move is "lurching" - used in a sentence - "The pimped out chav-mobile lurched around the corner."

Not once whilst playing NFS did I think "That's it! I finally understand the handling and I feel more at one with the car", as I have with every other racing game I've played. I see a racing game that doesn't get the handling at least half right is like a football game where they didn't quite get the ball to be round.

I also think graphically all games in the series have been below par and, with respect to the free-roaming titles in the series, the explorable map just gets in the way of inevitable race events, instead of giving the player the sense of exploration and discovery, or something new!

Alex Walker's picture
On October 2nd Alex Walker said:

Shift, by all accounts seems to be a very good game. Criterion, creators of the stunning Burnout series bringing their expertise to a title that will sell regardless of quality?

I'm all for that.

DubsTF's picture
On October 2nd DubsTF said:

Taken with a grain of analyst salt, obviously, but I think what's being opined above is that the era of NFS selling (well) regardless of quality might be coming to an end. And further, I would guess that whereas NFS is in decline Burnout should be ascendant, but perhaps this move says otherwise.

I'll more than likely buy and will hopefully enjoy their NFS entry, but I'd still prefer another Burnout!

Mystakill's picture
On October 2nd Mystakill said:

Huh. That's odd. I could've sworn I'd purchased & enjoyed several EA titles of late. Other than their continued insistence on paid unlockables, they've been making great strides on improving the quality and breadth of their titles over the past couple of years. I'd purchase an EA title before an Activision title in a heartbeat...

DubsTF's picture
On October 2nd DubsTF said:

I wholeheartedly agree. As strange as it feels to be defending big, bad EA, the fact is their renewed focus on quality has shown this generation and it's no secret they've taken some big gambles on new IPs. I'd hate to see them take a report like this to heart and retreat into crass sequels, licensed crap and other cash-ins.

Note that I offer no opinion specifically on EA Sports titles; I don't buy those, except for Burnout. And I agree with you about the ridiculous DLC nickel-and-diming.