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Analyst: “Motion Control Interfaces Should Extend Cycle”
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian has predicted that newly announced motion control interfaces will give this console generation extra legs.
Microsoft’s and Sony’s move to develop new motion sensing technology “should… provide the industry with its next growth driver and extend the console cycle,” said Sebastian in an investor note.
Earlier today, Xbox Live GM Marc Whitten said that Project Natal could add “years” to the Xbox 360’s lifecycle.
Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz said he thought Sony’s announcement showed the most promise of the two.
“In contrast to previous years, we thought Sony actually did the best job among the hardware manufacturers… We felt Sony's gamer-oriented motion capture camera was superior to Microsoft's casual-oriented offering.”
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I'm sure Microsoft will be able to release this technology eventually and it will probably work relatively well. But some people are taking this way too far. Asimo can do this but he costs $1,000,000. Do you really think it's possible to release a $100 peripheral that can do everything they have promised?
post-natal depression
some folks here have never been to a trade show, it seems. product demos are generally always OVERemphasized with exaggerated movements. Think of a stage play, where actors project their voices and flail about dramatically for the middle and back rows. The onstage demo reminded me of the awful SIXAXIS demo a few years back when the guy onstage playing Warhawk looked like he was about to take off and fly around the auditorium himself with all that ducking and dodging.
Anyway, I'm thrilled by PN because of the potential it has to give adventure games a real kick into this generation of consoles. I can see a something like Shenmue making a comeback with actual interactivity with everything in the game world, or a RPG where you're actually casting spells by drawing them out with simple gestures. If the control ends up as refined as it's touted to be, "jumping around like an idiot" will be relegated to those party games where it's part of the experience.
"Milo" reminded me of a lot of plenty of Japanese adventure or simulation games where you're interacting with a single or multiple characters in order to start improve a relationship or solve a mystery. Of course, the level of interactivity is much higher here, but I can see japan getting a ton of dating sims, interactive crime dramas and such (none of which will see the light of day here, of course).
Also, expect this console cycle to last a few years longer, as the big not-so secret is pretty obvious: it makes perfect sense to extend the life of the 360 (and PS3) for pure economic reasons. You won't see the end of traditional controls at all, folks. Gesture-based games will be part of a longer-term strategy that focuses on more innovation that extends a life cycle, not ends it before a system is anywhere near maxed out (original Xbox, anyone?)
I say wishful thinking it's not going to stop the decline
A lot of people are a bit negative towards all this motion control hype. Looking at the Wii's game library shows people have every right to be negative about it. However, I think Project Natal could be something special - if used in conjunction with the 360 controller and not just sensing your movements, otherwise it will just be Wii-like party games. The combination of the controller and Natal has the potential to be amazing. Simple things like playing say Fallout 3. The combat and exploration could be traditionally controlled but then interaction with NPC's could be handled by Natal with facial tracking and voice recognition making the game far more immersive. Obviously, the technology would have to be fairly sophisticated to understand what you're saying and you might feel a bit of a dick talking to your telly all the time, but still, the potential is there to make interactive entertainment even more interactive.
I don't want to be jumping all around my living room, I am too lazy for that. But things like that Milo thing mixed with traditional gameplay and control really interests me. It could be the next evolution in gaming we are looking for. I think people are scared that motion control will completely replace the traditional joypad, it won't, it will just compliment it, taking immersion to the next level.
Your ideas about Project Vapor are in the same fantasy science fiction realm as their B.S. "product vision" video. Not holding my breath for any of that to be reality anytime soon, kthx.
Well, it's nice that you are being so optimistic! :p
I mean, it will probably end up being Wii-type tripe. But we can dream can't we? I think the potential is there but not for a couple years at least.
Not going to happen anytime soon. I'm not an expert in this sort of field, but just thinking of how much work they must have put into this program so there's no "loose ends" and to have him fully fleshed out, it seems to be a pretty daunting task. Of course, you will still have to have structure and possibly even string conversations even if they did decide to use this program. If not string conversations then undoubtedly you will be hearing a lot of "eh, what?" "Huh, what's that supposed to mean?" the invisible walls of non-programmed phrase recognition. So then, what's the difference between using this and how it is already done if that believability can be blown by saying something completely off the map?
I know what you mean. To do something like this would take an incredible amount of work for it to not break the sense of immersion every 5 minutes. But the technology seems to be there, it's up to the developers to make it happen in a believable way. It's a neat idea that harks back to the text adventures where you would type 20 words before you find the word that works, this is just an evolution of that.
I've just been reading up on the hands on experiences with natal, this is what I found....
MS aren't just planning on making original titles - but are also bringing out dlc to make previously available games compatible.
Part of the backstage demo had natal wired up to Burnout Paradise and yep , it works fine!!!
Milo on the other hand is going to be a proper game - that spans 15 days experience - you help the story progress via your interaction with Milo - who can be either male/female in the finished product. Milo's dialogue will be updated via XBL so that he/she appears to have knowledge of current events , oh , and measures are in place to counter 'abusive behaviour'!
I've heard that dev kits have been sent out + interest from developers is good. MS themselves are have a number of 'ambitious' titles in the works.... (which hopefully means non mini-game related!!!)
Ign said MS are treating it as if it was a console launch + are taking it very seriously.
Sounds promising, and is definitely something to look forward to , although I'll reserve final judgement till I actually try it for myself. But from what I've read this looks like the real deal!
So Project Vapor can be used to control Burnout Paradise. FINALLY, an answer for all the people who have been begging Criterion for an option to control this precise, fast-paced racing game by waving their arms around like idiots. BRILLIANT. Can't wait! When does it come out? How much will it cost?
....not very optimistic are ya??? Hehehe
Natal obviously isn't going to replace the joypad ( the games shown at E3 show MS are still providing to the hardcore gamers.)
This is about choice - if you want hardcore games they're there , if you want motion control (jumping around your living room may not appeal to all, but if the Wii sales are anything to go by......) you can have motion control .
I suspect it'll take a regular hardcore game that makes good use of enhanced natal functions to convince some people that this is a good thing , and that not all motion controls have to be mini-game related.
I think Nintendo didn't particularly give motion control a favorable image to hardcore gamers, by failing to set standards as to the quality of games released by third party developers.
Wii/Natal provides technology with potential , it's down to the developers to use it effectively. Now all of the 'big three' have motion control - they have the incentive to invest more time and money into such.
The Burnout Paradise demo at least shows the product works as shown in the E3 video - P.Molyneaux said 8 out of 15 days of Milo have been completed and he hopes for it to ship next year.
Christmas 2010 maybe? (- That's just my guess) , price - I have no idea - but it would make sense to market it competitively - I doubt MS would want a X360 + Natal bundles to cost more then a Wii ....
I guess all we can do is speculate right now as we only have so much to go on, maybe we'll see more at TGS?
Pricing will be important here, I won't spend over £60 for an EyeToy peripheral.
I think it will be reasonably priced, ArronC07, considering MS already announced it would be bundled in with all systems once it's released. I realize that it would be a break from tradition for MS to price their peripherals aggressively, but they do have a financial incentive to do so in this particular instance. They want to increase the install base of this device as much as possible to justify the significant R&D involved and lure third-parties to support it.
This will totally work!
The Sega CD gave me 2 extra years on my Genesis; the 32X - two weeks more. Peripherals are the only way to go!
I'm certain that Project Vapor will add years to the 360's lifecycle because it will take years to come out... if it comes out at all!
bugger
Ummm, Microsoft is already sending out DEV kits.
WOW, already?! It must be coming out any day now, right? How much will it cost??
what makes you say it's vapour? i haven't heard anything like that, and it looks like they've made a big investment in it and have the confidence to show at e3. of course they could just save it for xbox 720 but if sony release their purple thing xbox will be the only console without motion control, which i doubt they'd allow for too long. i think the analyst is right though, this generation could go on forever what with the new motion control things and also those rumblings about 3d stereoscopic games (Ubisoft's Avatar game will be 3d).
Also (though I'm sure people have said this and been embarrasingly wrong in the past) what more could the next gen do? Say we have motion controlled stereoscopic ps3's and xbox 360's what can the next consoles offer us to convince us to switch other than the companies just not supporting this gen any more?
I promise to stop calling it PROJECT VAPOR just as soon as they announce price, release date and show actual gameplay from, say, five launch games, mkay? Let me know when that happens.
You do realise that by calling a newly announced product vapourware in every thread you post in makes you sound like a complete idiot right? If its not out in a year maybe you can start then.
You do realize that you're basing this on only a limited/selective definition of "vaporware," right? A product need not have endured endless delays to be classified as vaporware; rather, it only needs to be announced prematurely when it exists only as some loose specifications or a basic tech demo or, in this case, a B.S. fantasy "product vision" video.
See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware and note especially the second paragraph under "anticompetitive practices."
CLASS DISMISSED.
Teacher, Teacher, I have a question.
In the link you posted, it states the term is applied to products that fail to emerge after having far-exceeded the development time that was I claimed.
So I'm trying to find the link where Microsoft claims it'll be here by this Friday, but I can't find it?
Now you're intentionally picking and choosing the parts that suit you and clinging to the secondary definition instead of the main one. Let me quote it in full (emphasis mine):
"Vaporware is a term used to describe a product, usually software, that has been announced by a developer during or before its development and, therefore, may never actually be released. The term is usually applied to products which fail to emerge after having well-exceeded the period of development time that was initially claimed or would normally be expected for the development cycle of a similar product. The term implies unwarranted optimism, an as yet unannounced abandonment of a project, or sometimes even deception; that is, it may imply that the announcer knows that product development is in too early a stage to support responsible statements about its completion date, feature set, or even feasibility."
And here's the bit that's super-relevant to Project Vapor™:
"In other cases, vaporware may be announced by companies in order to damage the development or marketability of more real products by competitors, sometimes in combination with a campaign of fear, uncertainty and doubt; if customers believe the hype, they may put off purchasing the real product to wait for its vaporous rival to mature."
HERE ENDETH THE LESSON.
So the part you're referring is the usually part? It's not even in development anymore. People used it at E3. Developers have their orders placed. It can't hurt development. Hell, due to the Wii's runaway success, it may not even hurt marketshare. They didn't use scare tactics.
It doesn't fit one single aspect of the Vaporware profile save the fact that it isn't released yet.
I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there.
A "concept video" was shown at E3 along with carefully controlled software samples that can be described as tech demos at best, certainly nothing close to shipping game software.
And make no mistake: it was absolutely announced well early in the hope that the mainstream press would pick up on it and people would defer Wii (or PS3 motion kit) purchases in the hope that Project Vapor would best them upon its eventual, theoretical release.
It fits the definition to a T.
Dude, It is E3, for the uninitiated, it's a trade show where company's showcase unreleased material. The only company that showed finished product was Nintendo, & they were ridiculed for it.
During the controlled demos, what did you think happened? Were you, like, watching Gametrailers; yelling, "Fake! Fake! Look at lag! There's totally a guy in the back with a controller! Milo's too real! This shit's impossble! Fuck this, I'm gonna watch the Sony Bubble-Wand video. Where's a tube sock?"
*sigh*
How many of the hundreds of products announced at E3 had at least vague release dates and/or prices (where applicable) announced with them? How many had NONE? Of the ones that had none, how many were and have continued to be hyped as heavily as Project Vapor?
I don't think you realize, dude, just how far from ready for prime time this thing is. And your failure to grasp that leads to your failure to recognize this as classic Microsoft vaporware, straight from the mid-90s old school playbook.
Just out of curiosity, what is your best educated guess as to when Project Vapor would be released?
SDF idiot.
Ha, Ha, Ha...Dude really bothered you; that's funny.
My job takes me to a trade show at least once a month. Release dates are always vague, but if I had to guess - October 2010. Games of this...um..."magnitude" only take about 6 - 8 months to make. They won't be the best games, but they'll be there. It will also be the thing that gets people to buy a console at a time when they would normally see a new system.
It will likely be the Holiday Bundle. This is first time we've had a 5th holiday season with no plans for a console. Momentum will certainly be decreased, & competition nightmarish. Add that to the theory that Nintendo's incredibly weak showing this year is due to the big "N" saving the Wii HD for E3 2010 - set to launch that fall.
Nintendo would now be on equal footing with the Xbox & PS3. Sony & Microsoft would make very certain to put themselves on equal footing with Nintendo at the same time. Unless either company is intending on conceding this generation's "win" to Nintendo, neither company can afford vaporware.
Funny you don't hold Sony to those same standards, DubsTF (how's that cross-game voicechat coming along, how late was HOME, where's The Agency, GT5 and the DC MMO?). You throw out your snide comments doubting its very existence and then when its proven that it really does exist you just shift the argument to price (a losing argument for any Sony proponent).
You must have a very thin grasp of marketing if you fail to understand the cycle this product is at in the marketing timeline and why those things have not yet been announced.
While I certainly don't have the same scorn and contempt for Sony that I do for Microsoft, I also don't go around leaping to their defense when people like you knock them.
Why do you defend Microsoft from legitimate criticism?
Actually, you do DubsTF. You do realize that all readers can click on your name and look at your past comments don't you? There's not a single comment critical of Sony and almost all of them are leaping to their defense.
I don't defend MS from legitimate criticism - I point out illegitimate criticism and hypocricy. I have issues with 360's reliability, over-priced accessories and obsession with monetizing everything they can, but Sony's sins are far greater this gen.
You do realize that all readers can click on your name and look at your past comments don't you?
Totally aware of that and welcome everyone to do so. Click away, readers!
There's not a single comment critical of Sony
This might be true, not sure.
and almost all of them are leaping to their defense.
This, on the other hand, is a blatant falsehood. You do realize that all readers can click on my name and look at my past comments, don't you?
Well, you could make the arguement that the current 360 and PS3 offered very little aside from extra horsepower but people didn't complain too much and were impressed by shiny new graphical updates of previous generational games. Gamers will always chase the shiny and new.
Oral sex?
Real Time Radiosity - Like AO shadowing but for lights instead of shadows. Physics-Aware Texture Shading - This will allow grass & vegetation to react to the players physics; instead of only being "character box" aware.
These are both very close to completion, but the real benefit would be how we store the medium. Right now, the most likely option discussed has been SDXC. It starts at 32GB, goes to 2TB, & has 0ms load time. No loading, fully realized 3D world enviornments.
There's always somewhere to go.