Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz believes that sales of casual games haven’t negatively impacted the traditional console market, which he expects to come into its own this year.
“We reject the notion that competition from non-traditional video gaming formats such as the iPhone and social gaming have significantly impacted the traditional console cycle,” the analyst said in a research note. “We believe that these newer gaming media represent a distinct and non-competitive market segment from console gaming, which is dominated by the core gamer.
“... We believe that the difficulties of this cycle have primarily been driven by the relatively slow uptake of Microsoft and Sony hardware due to stubbornly high hardware pricing.”
The analyst said that Wii titles and the music genre helped grow the market beyond the traditional core gamer in 2007 and 2008, but that casual gamers appeared to back away from the medium in 2009, where as sales of core titles remained strong.
“With Xbox 360 and especially PS3 prices now entering the mass market range, we believe that the cycle will reaccelerate to the benefit of the publishers that are positioned to take advantage,” he forecast.
Last month Ubisoft said that it was refocusing its development resources on “major franchises and on the Xbox 360 and PS3” after a 50 per cent drop in its casual business. A Capcom France executive recently expressed similar sentiments before the publisher released a statement stressing that it is committed to a multiplatform development strategy.