By the end of the year, that figure "will likely double," he says, "giving us greater confidence that Take-Two can achieve its full-year earnings guidance." Full year earnings guidance is pegged between break-even and 20 cents per share on a non-GAAP basis.
The Xbox 360 exclusive Lost & Damned is the first of two DLC installments slated for release for GTA IV. The second is expected later this calendar year, but possibly in Take-Two's next fiscal year, which begins in November, Pachter said.
Lost & Damned sells for $20 on Xbox Live Marketplace.
The analyst on Friday also raised his rating for Take-Two shares from "hold" to "buy," with a $10 price target. Shares in the company were up 3 percent to $5.85 in early afternoon trading.
"We acknowledge that this upgrade may appear 'early' in light of the company’s cautious outlook for near breakeven results in FY:09; however," he said, "we believe that the company’s share price fully reflects the cautious guidance, and disregards a potential GTA release in FY:10, as well as better performance in the future."
Company revenue guidance for the quarter ended January 31 is in the range of $175-$225 million and non-GAAP loss per share between 70-85 cents.
Pachter said Take-Two, whose most notable franchises outside of GTA include BioShock, Civilization and the 2K Sports line "largely remains a one-hit wonder." But that one hit is GTA, he says, which "is relatively predictable and immensely profitable."
He expects the next full-blown iteration of GTA, which has yet to be announced, to outsell GTA IV by 50 percent, thanks to a larger installed hardware base. Profits from that game "should be approximately 50 percent greater than from [GTA IV]."
GTA IV launched in April 2008, generating $500 million in sales in its first week alone.
Pachter's note comes days before Take-Two's earnings announcement, slated for March 10.