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Analyst: Lost & Damned May Sell 2m by Year-End
February's Grand Theft Auto IV add-on content, The Lost & Damned, has sold 1 million copies to date, Webush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter estimated in a Friday research note.
By the end of the year, that figure "will likely double," he says, "giving us greater confidence that Take-Two can achieve its full-year earnings guidance." Full year earnings guidance is pegged between break-even and 20 cents per share on a non-GAAP basis.
The Xbox 360 exclusive Lost & Damned is the first of two DLC installments slated for release for GTA IV. The second is expected later this calendar year, but possibly in Take-Two's next fiscal year, which begins in November, Pachter said.
Lost & Damned sells for $20 on Xbox Live Marketplace.
The analyst on Friday also raised his rating for Take-Two shares from "hold" to "buy," with a $10 price target. Shares in the company were up 3 percent to $5.85 in early afternoon trading.
"We acknowledge that this upgrade may appear 'early' in light of the company’s cautious outlook for near breakeven results in FY:09; however," he said, "we believe that the company’s share price fully reflects the cautious guidance, and disregards a potential GTA release in FY:10, as well as better performance in the future."
Company revenue guidance for the quarter ended January 31 is in the range of $175-$225 million and non-GAAP loss per share between 70-85 cents.
Pachter said Take-Two, whose most notable franchises outside of GTA include BioShock, Civilization and the 2K Sports line "largely remains a one-hit wonder." But that one hit is GTA, he says, which "is relatively predictable and immensely profitable."
He expects the next full-blown iteration of GTA, which has yet to be announced, to outsell GTA IV by 50 percent, thanks to a larger installed hardware base. Profits from that game "should be approximately 50 percent greater than from [GTA IV]."
GTA IV launched in April 2008, generating $500 million in sales in its first week alone.
Pachter's note comes days before Take-Two's earnings announcement, slated for March 10.
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As a PS3 owner I'm personally more excited by the prospect of this Galvatron, Yakuza 3 - the nearest thing yet to GTA Tokyo.
As a PS3 and GTAIV owner, I'm disappointed that Rockstar have chosen not to release Lost & Damned for Sony's machine, particularly given the phenomenal success on Playstation 2 the series garnished. However, it is not this particular downer which has resulted in my posting of my first Edge comment; as a buyer of Edge's publication and judgement since the first issue, when the PS1 was just a twinkle in Sony and Toshiba's eye (remember that?), I find it depressing the way software distribution and online content is reducing the focus on single-player games.
Don't get me wrong, there are true AAA titles which continue to push levels of immersion beyond the existing framework - Bioshock, take a bow - and I should also point out I own a 360, purely for Halo 3, but I will admit to completely bypassing ever-growing paragraphs dedicated to online content within game reviews; I just don't have any inclination to play online as, in my opinion, nothing beats the squirming expression of a friend losing to you at Tekken, Pro Evo or Motorstorm in the same room. Although Halo 3 would come close, beating strangers just doesn't have the same satisfaction.
My favourite games of all time cover C64, SNES, PC, PS1+2+3 and PSP, and my roll-call of certain games may strike a chord with the early 30's crowd; Speedball & Xenon 2, Marble Madness, Sanxion, F117A Stealth Fighter 2, Final Fantasy 7, Wizball, Flashback, Metal Gear Solid, Shadow of the Colossus, Wipeout and Zelda, and now includes GTAIV, Bioshock, Pro Evo and multiplayer Tekken on PSP. Great games, none of which I care to experience online.
Single-player games like Bioshock offer a true level of immersion hitherto not experienced on console, and I absolutely love them. Moreover, online games have become a lesson in marketing success; Resistance 60 player deathmatch!! Yawn.
In the current climate, when online games require an internet connection and charge subscription fees, publishers and developers would be wise to once again place the spotlight on enthralling, imaginative, offline experiences the medium built it's success on, because that market is seeking attention and will gladly shell out forty quid for quality titles that push the single player experience, on a disc which can be played on a friend's machine and not network-locked, sheesh.
Anyone out there agree?
Pretty off topic, and no I don't agree, well I do agree that offline games will always have their place but I don't feel like the emphasis has been taken off them. Generally games are single player and have an online component, admittedly the online component in a lot of FPS's is the best thing about the game but many still have enthralling single player experiences (COD4, Gears 2, Resistance 2, Killzone 2, Resistance 1, Left 4 Dead) For consoles that pretty much sums up my experience with online shooters that have a good offline component as well, reply if you think the online component detracts from any of the experiences here.
As for oldschool style, offline gaming maybe you haven't checked out the PSstore or the Live Marketplace but online distribution has given a home to otherwise commercially unviable games like Braid, Super Stardust HD, Flower, the PixelJunk series, geometry wars, bionic commando among many many other amazing low key titles.
Look at innovations in gaming allowed by the internet such as the user created level sharing in LittleBigPlanet and you should realise the internet is not detracting from single player gameplay. But it has opened an entire new medium.
I think you're confusing two separate issues. DLC is a problem I think when it devalues the main game and this is where GTA VI got it right with it's brand new story line and characters and Tomb Raider Underworld with it's levels that were dropped from the main game got it wrong.
As far as online gaming is concerned outside of MMORPG the only system that charges you to play online gaming is XBOX LIVE, EVERY other system, PC, Mac, Wii, PS3 and PSP gives it for free. It wouldn't be so bad but XBOX LIVE is primarily a P2P based system so you're not even getting dedicated servers for your money- that sucks. Now the XBOX fanboys will probably descend on this post and go on about the superior service and frankly that's a crock of shite. If you look at the extra services you're actually paying for the only thing I can see that's not available on the other systems is cross game chat and cross game invites, the actual important component of gaming online- gaming online- is as good and if not better on the other systems (apart from the Wii). LIVE is even free on the PC for gawds sake, talk about sticking the two fingers up at the loyal 360 owner. The net result is that people who aren't locked into one format (and thus feel the need to defend that format to the bitter end) can no longer pay MS for the privilege of doing something that's free on other services. I mean if you take Shane Kim's comments at face value and the 360 really is going to be a 10 year console you'd have paid an extra £399 ($500) to use a service that's free on other formats, that's fuck loads and easily pushes the total cost of gaming on the 360 over that of the PS3.
The solution for the savvy consumer is that you should buy the games that have online multiplayer on the PS3 or PC, games with exclusive DLC on whichever platform has the rights (and only buy it if it isn't produced at the expense of the main game), exclusive games on the relevant platform and multiformats that are purely single player games on the system that it looks best on.