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Analyst: Nintendo May Trigger Next-Gen War
By Kris Graft
August 25, 2008
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"One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."
The current generation of consoles still has three to four more years before newer hardware hits the market, but Nintendo's next may arrive sooner, according to one analyst.
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian said in an investor note on Monday, "At this point, we believe the consensus opinion among industry professionals is that the next significant hardware refresh is unlikely to occur before 2011, and more likely in 2012."
But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."
The original Xbox had roughly a four year run before its successor Xbox 360 came to market. PS2 was out for about six years prior to the release of PS3, and Nintendo's GameCube had a five year run prior to Wii's launch.
Sebastian also noted that Microsoft recently began production of a 65nm-based CPU for Xbox 360, and is also working on cutting costs in other areas related to Xbox 360 hardware.
The company is expected to cut the retail price of Xbox 360 later this year.
Commenting on the European market following last week's Leipzig Games Convention, Sebastian also noted Sony's heavy PS3 presence at the show. But he said the console is still not yet priced for true mass market penetration.
"While Sony is clearly not standing still, and is demonstrating some better momentum in North America, we do not believe the PS3 is likely to gain significant market share until hardware prices reach mass market levels," he said.
How many people are gonna die in this "war"?
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>>>with the cameras NOT being 1080p cameras that have been used to film movies. The native resolution of the movies on Blu-Ray AND HD-DVD is not 1080p, but rather 720p. The DISC itself spits the image out at an upscaled 1080p, but the film is not 1080p, only 720<<<
I don't know where to even start with how much misinformation is here
35mm film has well over 1080p resolution, and will almost always resolve the image better than even the latest digital cameras, especially in areas like color depth
Blu-ray is a 1080p format both on disc and in output, I've never even heard that one before, but if that's what's happening, then your player and/or TV is set up wrong, or you have a 720p TV that accepts 1080 and then downscales it..
Microsoft and Sony have both gone through 1000000 different SKUs while Nintendo has released 1. Geez, they've barely even bundled anything with the Wii. I would suspect they'd release a "premium model" with all the features people have mentionned here, to feed the HD lovers out there, long before they pulled the plug on a console which, in my city, is STILL not avidly available on store shelves. That would be a very poor business decision which I would think Nintendo wouldn't make.
Remember though, Nintendo has a history of releasing systems when they're prior ones were still hot. People balked at Nintendo when they released the DS when the advance was still selling strong. Software support actually lasted quite a while on the advance before the DS took over completely. That obviously worked out for them. They haven't had the luxury of doing that with a home console yet, but knowing how nintendo goes against the grain sometimes, maybe releasing an updated Wii with full BC when the Wii is still hot will work out for them. Releasing a Wii with last gen features like HD graphics and DD5.1 and proper online support could help boost its appeal to the remaining core gamers (we are smaller, but still account for a large portion of the market. The Wii and Wii HD could co-exist for some time like the advance and DS did.
Pachter said the same thing basically. They're both crazy.
No one knows when demand for the Wii will cap just yet, but there is already talk of Ninty killing the Wii to usher in a new version of it/new system? It's just absurd.
These analysts still think Nintendo still secretly wishes to be in the horserace to one-up Sony and Microsoft in terms of processing power when the Wii already shows they could care less about that sort of thing.
Well, you may be right thinking that would be absurd, and in normal cases that would be absurd. But you have to remember Nintendo has a history of releasing new systems early (namely handhelds, when the advance was still thriving, they released the DS, and the Advance still lasted quite a while before it died). I wouldn't be shocked if they did that. They could make the new system compatible with all current Wii software, throw in a small HDD, improve online capabilites, a (real) headset, add better community support (i.e a gamertag), add 720p support, DD5.1, etc, they could draw in more hardcore while keeping the grandmas and soccer mom's. Especially since they have the momentum and the name Nintendo is still in people's mind (in a positive way) it might be a smart move. The Wii will die down eventually when people realize what it actually is. If Nintendo releases a Super WIi, or a Wii Wii, or whatever before the Wii's popularity dies down, sales could carry over to the new system.
I agree somewhat. I do believe that MS won't bring out the next xbox just 4 years after this one just due to the difference in this generation when compared to last. MS last time stated they were just trying to get their foot in the door, and beating Sony and Nintendo to the punch with their next system was almost required if they were expected to be more succesful. I think now, with a substantial lead over Sony (don't think they really worry about Nintendo TOO much) they may not be in too much of a rush this time. I don't see it being much more than 5 years after the 360 when they'll come out with the 3rd one. It'll be more than 4, but less than 6 I believe. I still think when its said and done, they will still want to beat (which they most likely will) the PS4 to the market. Just my thoughts.
Other things that will happen in 2012:
-100 million households will pay for HDTV service
-LCD TV shipments will double
-Wiress HDTV hits the one million user benchmark
-Blu-Ray overtakes DVD in sales
I don't know why analysts love 2012 so much, but if they're all right the year will be some kind of perfect storm of high-def bliss and we should all start saving now.
I think 3/4 of those things will happen, Blu-Ray will NOT overtake DVD, no way. The improved quality Blu-Ray has over standard DVD is minimal (I'm aware of the 66% more lines of resolution). 3 times the resolution (1080p over 480p is roughly 3 times the resolution) with the cameras NOT being 1080p cameras that have been used to film movies. The native resolution of the movies on Blu-Ray AND HD-DVD is not 1080p, but rather 720p. The DISC itself spits the image out at an upscaled 1080p, but the film is not 1080p, only 720p. So, you're seeing an upscaled/upconverted 720p image which is only actually 2 x the resolution. I own a 1080p player (not saying if its bluray or HD-DVD for people's obvious bias toward HD-DVD) and most movies, and I hate to admit this because I payed a lot of money for the player and discs, do NOT look all that much better. The most obvious thing is the logos of the federal piracy warnings and the text of the movies themselves look super crisp. And on top of all that (just like with music) people will slowly but surely realize that there are digital distribution options out there (xbox marketplace, PSN, netfilx, and some other stand alone boxes) and will adopt that. I see Blu-Ray sales increasing, but people won't make the jump for only (most of the time) a marginal increase in quality. I know what the resolution numbers say, but that doesn't translate on screen. And the lie of 6x the resolution (1080p vs 480i) isn't enough to trick people into buying it. Everyone has a 480p tv by now, and you can get 480p dvd players for like 40 bucks, so its 3 times, not 6 times the resolution.
It will be later than 2012. Both Sony and MS have said made statements implying that the ability to do system upgrades via software updates will extend the life of the current consoles beyond the historical update cycle. They can improve performance and add features without releasing new hardware. Both have made significant hardware and online investments in the current console set, and have struggled just to break even, meaning they are in no rush to dump more money into new hardware development.
Nintendo could (and should) release a Wii 1.5 with storage/output upgrades.