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Analyst: No New Console Cycle Before 2013
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter doesn’t expect a new hardware cycle to begin before 2013.
“We do not expect a “new” console in 2010 (other than the long-rumoured high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology),” he wrote in an industry newsletter.
“We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all,” he added.
“We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalise on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.
“We therefore think it is likely that the ‘next’ generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6–10 percent for another five years.
“Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years.”
Earlier this week Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot said the publisher was already preparing for the next generation of consoles, which he expects to launch in the next few years.
"We need to get ready for the future generation of consoles," he said. "In the next few years, there will be new home and handheld consoles, and if you don't invest... you will not be able to cope with both [the existing and new generation consoles].”
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I'm not sure what the "big three" would even bring to their next generation of consoles (well, ok, i can see what nintendo could do). Wasn't it said at the time of KZ2 being released that it was using 4 of the PS3s 6-cells? Surely there's a long long way to go with this gen if the biggest games are only using 2/3 of the available power from the current generation?
Before i get flamed away, i wasn't saying ZOMFG PS3 is so powerful, it rulez. I just don't know anything about hoqw much of the 360s power is currently being used, and i do remember reading this about kz2.
I do expect some kind of silly upgrade to the Wii (which i'm going to call Wii-i), in the next couple of years, but don't expect to see anything more than random add-ons from sony or M$. Wasn't there a recent interview here with some sony dude who suggested he expected ps3 sales to overtake 360 in 3-5 years? I'd guess sony are expecting this gen to last at least that long then.. (Or possibly that 360 sales will decline in favour of the 720, or something..)
This is a win-win situation. Developers can make better and better games as their skill with producing for the current generation matures, and consumers don't have to make major console investments and then wait a few years before a decent game comes out.
In the perfect world, we'd find satisfactoin with hardware and stick with it, instead focusing on new and better games rather than the constant battle for console supremacy.
Dreamhunk is there any specific reason why you're desperately trying to spread your "consoles are dead, long live PC"-agenda in EVERY SINGLE article?
Give it a rest already, you're just pissing people off.
Oh and it's Nvidia, not INvidea.
I don't deal with what if's and I am far from desperate I deal in hard facts and truth. How after sony and micro soft release a "new consoles" and I mock them even more for loseing more money! OH wait I think their share holders will do that. don't think I will be playing any games in the future! I have life to live :)
If you can prove me wrong others I say bring it!!!
it's not like those companies will ever make their money back lol, I guess they had to learn the hard way. They should have done a history check on the console business beofre they entered it. Saga was smart to leave the console business a long time ago.
Oh if I ever wanted to play a game on console ever, which I highly don't think will ever happen, I would just reat it's much cheaper :)
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_372...
You honestly believe that there is no money to be made in consoles? Oh and worst screen name ever.
Even if console are released at that time onlive would be ready at that time too.
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90650
that is long time any thing could happen which would be a major risk, not worth it with high productions costs. Also both micro soft and sony have yet to make their money back on theses consoles.
You make about as much sense as Vanilla Coke.
You're on a gaming website, but consider yourself too awesome and alive to play video games?
And if you honestly believe in the bullcrap you're posting, shut up about it and invest in the obvious winners. Come back and let me know when you make your first billion, Mr Buffett.
I found a really great link it adds to the debate
http://www.pcworld.com/article/164368/analyst_no_new_game_consoles_until...
Both hardware and software of consoles are on a decline right now. Lets see which companies are dump enough to lose more billions on consoles in a ression. Mirco soft and sony are not going to make their money back. Consoles are a novelty, you ever hear about the console game crash?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
I also want to bet money there will be a hardware to go bankurpt or they are going to take a major loss. I am thinking about IBM and AMD. I really hope that INvidea makes it I don't want to see them go.
If I was share holder for sony or micro soft and they told me they are making another consoles in a ression, I would be pulling out.
Just so no one calls me a lair here is some links with proof.
http://videogames.yahoo.com/feature/sony-has-lost-over-3-billion-on-the-...
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Microsoft-Lost-7-Billion-on-Xbox-and-MSN-...
I think people need to start ignoring this moron and his 'predictions.'
Disagree! I'm as generally anti-analyst as the next commenter but Mike "Patchy Fog" Pachter RULES.
(sigh)
*eyeroll*
It's very difficult to say where future generations will go...There is so much new emerging technology that is becoming more economically viable to include into today's systems that will be affordable to the average consumer.
I believe that at E3 this year we may see new handhelds.....Nintendo's DS came onto the market in 2004. That's nearly 5 years ago and going on the success and sale rate we may see a new portable or at the very least an acknowledgement of the existence of one.
I wouldnt worry to much....I think we should enjoy the software for a while. Lets not rush this generation.
The "if at all" comment made is just moonshine. I am a consumer, I want to play games. I refuse to hand over £600-800 for a gaming rig, and quite frankly don't want the eyesore of staring at one in my contemporary living room. Digital download is in danger of never happening. There is a tech race to develop gaming platforms that is far more intense than the snail like tech race to deliver ultra fast download speeds. In effect, the demands of gaming will at the current rate, be forever beyond the capabilities of broadband to match. I predict, factoring in the appalling hardware failure rate of the 360, coupled with the customer alienating price tag and difficult dev kit of the PS3, to see new hardware at 2012 at the very latest.
I wonder what analysts are basing their claims on? It can't be previous generations - 5 year standard cycle, or recouping losses - companies have been making this up in licensing for years. So there's no clear pattern to suggest that this will happen, & this is coupled with developers EXPECTING new consoles to happen. it almost seems that a bunch of old guys see graphics as being so freaking awesome; that they don't see any way to improve things.
There will be more console generations. Games have never been bigger so why shake things up. Once the next big crash happens (if ever) then something might change.
As well, I expect Microsoft to announce their next-generation console at this year's or next year's E3. Possibly this year, definitely by next year.
Online will certainly be a huge feature of next-gen consoles, but I don't believe it will replace physical copies. You have to consider that, even now, not everyone has a high-speed internet connection. Further, the amount of bandwidth required to download these next gen games – and bearing in mind that Blu Ray discs can hold up to 50 gigs of data – will be immense; will ISPs be happy supplying that amount to the consumer? And what about game retailers and publishers? Will they stand by and watch their business go down the tube as more devs go straight to Xbox LIVE, PSN or Steam (or whatever the next-gen equivalents will be), thereby cutting out the middle-man?
It's very difficult to accurately predict trends five years from now, especially given the fast-pace that technology grows and develops. But I still don't see console manufacturers going online only, and I think a significant portion of consumers will still want something they can touch and hold.
WiiHD...? I bet it's some clip on thing like the motion+ or like the ram upgrade thing on the N64 ;-)
The big issue everyone is missing is that there may not be another generation like the past. With the proliferation of games being downloaded, I expect that discs will not be included in the next generation and it will all be downloaded games. Xbox and PS3 are already well on their way. They are developing the on-line marketplaces and new games for web distribution. It reduces cost of goods and eliminates trade-ins, rentals and used games. All things the publishers and console manufacturers hate. It also means that no publisher needs to worry about excess inventory if a game doesn't sell well. This will change the entire economics of the gaming industry for retail, consoles and publishers. And for us gamers.
Patcher steers the ship that believes there will not be another console generation, WiiHD is an extension of this gen. Iconcur with Mr. Pachter and have thought the same thing for some time. I think that the big three will tease the next gen of hardware in 2012 and release late in 2013. However, if the financial well-being of MS and Sony's Gaming divisions don't turn around soon, I could see the next gen being pushed back to 2014.