Analyst Raises Kinect Shipment Forecast

Analyst Raises Kinect Shipment Forecast

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian has upped his Kinect shipment estimate for the fourth calendar quarter of 2010 from three to four million units.

“Based on updated channel checks, we believe that production quantities of Microsoft’s Kinect motion sensor could exceed our original expectations — suggesting to us potentially more aggressive launch plans for the device,” he said in an investor note.

“Specifically, our checks indicate that the Kinect build is on a pace of ~2M units per month, and we now believe that the mix of Xbox 360 shipments for the holidays will be more heavily weighted toward the Kinect bundle.”

Sebastian said he expects “a significant advertising blitz” ahead of the $149 motion sensing device’s November launch, and added: “We continue to believe that $99 would be a ‘sweet spot’ for Kinect, and production quantities suggest that Microsoft may be leaving open the possibility for price promotions on Kinect next year.”

The analyst also said that PlayStation Move, which launches next month, is “lacking some of the retail buzz vs. Kinect”, but that it should provide an early indication as to consumer demand for the next generation of motion controllers.