Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian says he is expecting upcoming NPD figures to reveal that US videogame sales were slow during September.

“Our preliminary forecast for September software sales is flat to down 10% (including PC games) on a tough comparison from the launch of Halo 3 last [September] and a tougher back to school period at retail,” he wrote in an investor note on Tuesday.

“… We believe that September NPD data scheduled for release in mid-October could add to near-term concerns over industry sales trends, and that shares in the sector are likely to remain choppy until there is better visibility for the key holiday period.”

Sebastian also said that high priced music titles like Guitar Hero and Rock Band “may face some headwinds at retail this holiday”, stunting North American industry growth. “Importantly, however, we believe a large portion of growth for Guitar Hero and Rock Band is likely to come from Europe, which lags North America in adoption rate.”

Despite Lazard's September outlook, Sebastian said that, based on recent investor meetings and other industry checks, “videogame companies remain cautiously optimistic ahead of the key holiday selling season”, adding that “October software performance will be the key gauge of industry health”.

“Importantly, we believe that a stronger October release lineup, along with ramping Wii hardware shipments and the recent Xbox 360 price cuts, should reaccelerate industry sales in October.”