Publisher EA is targeting "around 250,000 subscribers" for Mythic's Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning, one analyst speculates, suggesting a substantial drop-off of users after the free month is up.

EA said it shipped 1.5 million copies of WAR to retail last week.

Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA's goal to break even on the game.

"Over time, subscribers will drop off and level off at 250,000- 300,000," he said in a phone interview.

But he admitted that the number could jump as updates and expansion packs are released, adding that it would take about "six months or so" to get an idea of the MMORPG's sustainable user base.

He added that retail checks indicate initial sell-through is tracking "about in line with (but not above) expectations." He forecasts a higher mix of revenue from Europe compared to the U.S.

Bhatia estimates EA to generate $55-$60 million in revenue from WAR, or 5 percent of sales for the September quarter.

Users receive a month with the purchase of the game, and pay $14.99 per month, with discounts given if they pay for more months upfront.

"...Based on our estimates for sell through, it would require about 20 percent to 25 percent of the purchasers to remain long term subscribers--which we believe is achievable," Bhatia stated in an investor note.

In a late August post on the official WAR forums, Mythic CEO Mark Jacobs estimated the subscriber base to be "More than EverQuest (at its peak) and less than [World of Warcraft]," or between 550,000 and 11 million.