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Analyst: Wii to Pass PS2 Two-Year Sales

Kris Graft's picture

By Kris Graft

January 5, 2009

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U.S. life-to-date sales of the Nintendo Wii surpassed the initial two-year sales of Sony's mega-successful PS2, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter projected on Monday ahead of December sales data from NPD Group.

"...Nintendo’s life-to-date sell-through of the Wii is very close to life-to-date sell-through of the PS2 through year-end 2002, and we expect Wii sales to surpass PS2 sales in December," he wrote in a research note.

In the U.S., cumulative sales of Wii hardware stand at 15.4 million units. Comparatively, Xbox 360 has sold 12.4 million and PS3 brings up the rear with 6.1 million.

The Wii launched in the U.S. on November 19, 2006. PS2 released in the region on October 26, 2000.

Pachter also said third-party publishers "will manage market share gains on the Wii over the next year," with households adopting more "mainstay" movie-licensed and sports titles on the console. Currently, first-party Nintendo titles such as Wii Fit and Mario Kart are dominating sales charts.

Nintendo's success and videogame sales growth in general led Pachter to reiterate his belief that games are highly recession-resistant, as U.S. videogame retail sales have grown 21 percent through November. He expects December sales to have grown in the low single digits year-on-year due to a tough 2007 comparison.

NPD Group is slated to release U.S. December sales data on January 15.

glennsurname29's picture

i must admit that i am bias in my opinions regarding nintendo' being a fan an all,but i got to get something of my chest! Nintendo was always about leading the competition with superior graphics capabilities combined with great playable games! Until the Wii. Go on,contradict it...Snes v mega drive v PC engine,n64 v ps1 v saturn, and gamecube v ps2 v xbox. So what gives with the Wii? love the console but,lack of tech can`t be a problem,since microsoft dropped nvidia in favor of Ati, who already where supplying nintendo! so why not combine their strategy with a stronger graphics processor? With the control scheme and casual games Wii could have had the lot! except now we get substandard ps2 visuals (tho the Wii as better graphics capabilities than standard xbox with its shaders not used) I am 29 years old and feel alienated by ninty! As a gamer i feel i have more cred telling my 360 piers (i have a 360)i still have a gamecube than when i tell them how fun my Wii is!(no pun intended)

ShamanNY's picture

I dont think Nintendo (or anyone) expected the Wii to be this successful, and while satisfying to many, it has some clear shortcomings (storage, online community).
I believe Sony and MS when they talk of a 10 yr cycle for their consoles, but i think Ninty's is decidedly shorter, so the casual gamer (?) will buy the next Wii iteration, the one that retains control scheme, packs a Hard Drive, strengthens online, and may even provide 720p graphics... oh yeah backwards compatibility for GC, and Wii library.

E. Zachary Knight's picture

True. I can see a WiiHD coming out around 2013 or so. Will all the upgrades you describe and maybe some more.

NickgamertagO1's picture

Hmm, I'd guess more like Holiday 2011(5 years from Wii launch) since I feel as though Nintendo has recently adopted a strategy of releasing new hardware while the previous is still pretty hot (GBA-DS comes to mind). I think they'll want to use some of the Wii's momentum with an apparent Wii-HD. Maybe it'll be like a DS to DS-lite/DSi type thing where they upgrade it instead of a entirely new system.

Just my guess.

E. Zachary Knight's picture

That places it two years from now... I guess it is possible. I do think it will be more of an upgrade rather than a new console as well.

That does lead to the possibility of some games not being compatible with older hardware. Possibly. It would be really easy to develop the game and check for things like a built in motion plus, hard drive, standard def etc.

NickgamertagO1's picture

I'm impressed, I didn't know the PS2 did that well. I thought the Wii was on a faster pace than anything before it but it seems the PS2 was on a similar pace.

I honestly feel the Wii won't hit the overall number the PS2 did, but hearing news like this makes me wonder. I do feel the PS2 (although technically an inferior machine to the Xbox 1 and GameCube spec-wise) had better staying power than the Wii does now. The PS2 may have been inferior to the GCN and Xbox 1, but it wasn't nearly as bad as the gap between the Wii and the HD consoles are now. True the PS2 sold to a different audience, but it was a casual audience nonetheless that decided to stick around. I don't know if once Wii's casual audience (not saying their entire audience is casual, but we can all agree there is a market the Wii is hitting that traditionally doesn't by video games) starts maturing a bit (not in the physiological way) they may prefer a more...complicated gaming experience. The PS2 was able to hit both casual and hardcore gamers with capable hardware to go along with its casual offerings enabling it to cater to both for an extended period of time. I don't feel the Wii has the ability to cater to the hardcore segment as well as the PS2 did and that's why I don't think the Wii will have staying power quite like the PS2.

E. Zachary Knight's picture

I think you may be right, but I don't think they will make the jump from Wii to either a PS3 or 360 that easily.

You are basically asking if someone who primarily drives a sedan will jump right into a Corvette or Viper. They will more likely make the jump from sedan to Mustang. A bit classier but not as expensive. Or as another example, asking someone who buys off the shelf computers at Wal-mart to upgrade to an Alienware PC.

I could see these Wii owners over time buying more of the Hardcore type games for the Wii (check out the featured article of today about the top ten games for 2010). They most likely will not jump to a new console until the next generation.

If any do make the jump in this generation it will be one of two things. 1) the 360 as the price fits their expectations better. 2) the PS3 for its Bluray bonus. Really it could go either way, but most of the Wii owners will not make the jump this generation. There is just too much of a difference in play style and overall art style. They will not really be used to the control scheme of either of those two consoles. They may not have the desire to see such a drastic change in graphical power. Not saying people won't appreciate it, but they just won't have that desire to upgrade graphic capabilities.

At least, that is how I see it.

NickgamertagO1's picture

Hmm, interesting point. If the Wii can offer gaming experiences to both groups then I think the Wii will be even more dangerous than it already is.