By Kris Graft
January 12, 2009
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"...We think that concerns about weakening consumer demand for videogames are overblown."
Ahead of U.S. NPD videogame industry sales data for December, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter laid out estimates of what would be yet another huge month for Nintendo.
Pachter estimates Wii sell-through of 3.25 million units, easily outselling Xbox 360 and PS3 combined, which the analyst projects to have sold 1.35 million and 750K respectively during December.
"The long-awaited Wii production increase (which started in July) finally arrived late in September and we have seen significant increases each month since. We expect this to continue in December, with supply and demand in balance by early 2009."
Pachter's estimates are slightly higher than those of Jesse Divnich of Electronic Entertainment Design and Research, which forecast 3.2 million in Wii sales.
Despite low consumer confidence at retail, Pachter forecast videogame console software sales of $2.63 billion, up 10 percent compared to $2.39 billion last year.
He noted that November only included two days of post-Thanksgiving sales versus nine days from the previous year. December 2008 had 25 post-Thanksgiving sales days versus 23 days in 2007.
Pachter predicted good news for the year ahead: "...November hardware unit sales were up significantly year-over-year, giving us confidence that solid performance in December is coming, and will be sustainable well into 2009.
"...We think that concerns about weakening consumer demand for videogames are overblown."
But while he said the industry is "highly recession-resistant,"he said to "expect more modest gains in December and into 2009 due to difficult year-over-year comparisons."
NPD is slated to release December data on January 15.
Top titles during December, according to Pachter, were Guitar Hero: World Tour, World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, Call of Duty: World at War, Gears of War 2, Rock Band 2 and Wii Fit.
He said he expects 140 games sold over 100K during the month, versus 121 in 2007.
Pachter also said for 2008 he expects U.S. and handheld console sales to have hit 31.5 million units, up 17 percent year-on-year--an indicator of future software sales growth.
Sony would be committing suicide if they didn't drop the price around March (As the article said Sony's fiscal year ends with March). As soon as that happens there will be an increase in sales, however it will taper until the reduction. You can count on people claiming reduced PS3 sales figures for Jan, Feb and in particular March, as a PR coup for Microsoft.
As I have mentioned before there will be an almost immediate reduction in the 360 price (MS make LOTS from those HDD). But that's OK us Europeans and Australians will pay for your price reductions America... Don't mention it.
C'mon, $300 PS3! Show me the inevitability!
I think this would actually be bad for Sony and that they should wait to drop prices around October or November of this year.
i dont think it's in sony's favor to continue stagnating for another 10 months. especially with news of an overall deficit for the first time in 14 years for sony...
Count on another $US50 reduction in Sep/Oct or the packaging in of a game (Uncharted 2), slash 'value add'.
Here in Australia leading up to Christmas you could chose from Motor Storm: PR, LBP, Resistance 2 or Singstar + mics. In the boxing day sales you could pick that up for $AU600 ($US420), BUT the RRP is $AU700 ($US490).
Is that a printing error? Is he really predicting a $249 price tag for Xbox 360 Elite systems?
What about Pro and Arcade prices, $200 and $150?
Yup, that'd be a printing error. Apologies. As for the other models, Pachter didn't make any predictions, although we have pinged him.