Network now...NEWS
Analyst: Xbox 360 To Slip To Third Place By 2015
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects Xbox 360’s home console market share to fade to third by 2015, largely due to a lack of penetration in Japan.
“We expect the dominant console at the end of the this cycle to be the Wii, as we think that the console’s low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions will provide it with a competitive advantage over the next two years,” he said, noting that he still expects the company to introduce a high definition Wii.
“We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony’s victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015,” he added. “Although Microsoft’s Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan.”
By the end of 2009 he expects Wii to have captured a 49 per cent share of the US and European markets, followed by the Xbox 360 at 29 per cent and the PS3 at 22 per cent.
Two years he sees Wii market share having slipped marginally to 48 per cent, while PS3 and Xbox 360 each hold a 26 per cent share.
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It's only when you stand the three consoles next to each other (as in the picture at the top), that you realise how damned ugly the 360 and PS3 are. Remind me to move my wii to the top of the shelves.
This forum is missing something, now what was it?
.....
Oh yes, Dreamhunk! I haven't seen him around!!
*Draws Pentagram on floor*
DREAMHUNK, I SUMMON THEE!!
*chants*
DREAMHUNK
DREAMHUNK
DREAMHUNK
DREAMHUNK!!!!
For some reason? Thought of Metal gear solid: game over sequence when i read that....
Dreamhunk? whats wrong? Dreamhunk.....? DREAMHUNKKKKKKKKKK.................
Only NOW does he truly understand the POWER of the Face palm.
LOL.
He's one of the reasons why I come on to this site, he makes things so much interesting!!
The power of Indrema's FACEPALM though was just a pure epic win.
He's barely shown his face since my Atari Lynx Facepalm knocked his post dead.
Even I didn't truly understand the facepalm's power.
Careful everyone, Dreamhunk has obviously been kicked from the site for being such a Kim-level uber PC lover/console hater. If we act like we actually liked his thread-ruining antics he might try to make a comeback. Maybe he'll be back as Dreamscape (Dennis Quad 1984 classic which also featured the creepy little guy Arnold promised to kill last in Commando but lied dropping him off a cliff with his weak ahhm)? Dream Catcher? I Dream a Genie? The Roy Orbison song "In Dreams" (that strangely sounds like Indrema).
Never underestimate the power of............The Facepalm. LOL.
It's got to be said, that was an awsome post.
I suppose it's the equivelent of a nuke in a post. Such power should be feared.
Has Pachter ever made a remotely precise prediction? Why do people keep quoting him
He's the industry analyst equivalent of Peter Molyneux, only without the never-realised ambition...
A couple things I don't understand:
First of all, why is the focus of this story so firmly on the Xbox? Pachter released his general prognostications about the whole industry, but the hysterical headline here and the excerpts are mostly focused on Xbox, as though the whole industry revolves around its fortunes. WTF, Edge?
And then I don't know if I'll ever understand why everyone loves to dump on Pachter so much. Other analysts without his track record for accuracy, sure. But Patchy Fog? NO WAY. I suppose Nostradamus had haters, too.
I want those 3 in my cupboard by 2015 and 3 new consoles under my telly.
I'm not sure of his prediction. In 6 years time all the current Xbox gamers will have had to replace their Xbox at least 3 times, thus tripling their install base. Look out Wii!
Considering it's Micheal Patcher making the prediction, Xbox 360 will probably pass the Wii in 2015... Just saying
I think Michael Patcher and Eugene Levy are from the same gene pool. lol.
Honestly - the real question is "will the 360 still be profitable in 2015?" I think it might well be. The whole 1st, 2nd and 3rd race is very last gen and doesn't recognize the fact the Wii is mostly in a market to itself (so obviously its 1st there), whereas only the 360 and PS3 are directly competing with each other. And while both companies would love to be 1st, they'd be quite happy with a profitable 2nd place, especially after losing so much money early on with their platforms (hardware subsidization, R&D, marketing, etc).
They'd probably be reasonably content with a profitable third, in honesty, wouldn't they? I mean, GC was undeniably 3rd last round, but was still profitable for nintendo. As for Wii being a market on it's own: it is currently, but from the look of the W.A.N.D. and natal, it's a market which sony and ms are trying to get into?
Okay I was giving Pachter a benefit of the doubt for a long time now. But this shite here? I'm done with him as well. Big "guesstimization" on gamers behavior? I keep forgetting, HE'S NOT A GAMER...
2015 lol what a fucktard.
2015 has a nice ring to it.
I honestly dont doubt this at all, FF13 alone will push massive PS3 adoption. the demo itself rose sales to above 60,000 units in a week then add on FF14 exclusivity, a PS3 slim and a significant price drop all the while releasing Triple A after triple A title you definitely have a formula for dominance. Sony will do great all you ever hear is the doom and gloom for Sony yet if you stop and take a look at the worldwide sales the 360 is only outselling PS3 by an average of 10,000 units monthly and at double the pricepoint, with the upcoming releases of GT5 and GOW3 and a slim with a pricecut your going to see the PS3 sales skyrocket. The only problem I do see is the fact that Sonys marketing has been dreadful this gen, I really dont understand what the hell there doing with that but they need to step up there game when it comes to marketing.
There's really no way we can trust Patcher anymore.
After saying the PSP-GO was a "rip-off", only to have him rescind this remark two days later, and say it's a good value can only suggest that his company has, at least, some relations with Sony. He also didn't suggest any of Microsoft's efforts. If they also drop their price; then everything could stay exactly the same. I think if Japan continues it's downward swing, nothing will change.
I certainly expect 360 will fall at least to third by 2015 considering it will already have been replaced by the next MS console about 4 years prior to that. Gotta love analysts...
50p says that MS have not released a new console by the end of 2011 (unless you're classing a 360 with natal as a new console). I don't know about the rest of the prediction. If anything, 360 seems to be gaining market share in japan. The price cut and launch of the slim ps3 will be the defining moments of the fight for 2nd place in this round, but it certainly looks in 360s favour right now.
The all purpose Patcher article reply comment:
Patcher is right on the money/talking out of his arse on this one. MS slipping to third place by 2015 is assured/not going to happen because of MS superior/inferior library of games/build quality. MS have shown great/poor innovation with their online services/control methods and this will pay dividends/cost them dearly in the years ahead.
I'm sorry/happy to say that Patcher rulez/sux.
Delete as applicable.
That works for just about every argument/discussion that happens on this site.
Copy and paste.
AHHH YEAHHH!
If I delete everything applicable here (and de-pun his name), I think I'm left with:
Pachter
sux.
You're the only one to notice the pun.
That smells like pure win to me.
I love the fact that noone has posted since your post... lol.
Haha, yeah. He pretty much wrapped it up nicely there. I'm probably leaning toward the negative side of his response for this one myself. I'll give Pachter all his due for accurate predictions in the past (http://russrenshaw.newsvine.com/_news/2007/08/11/891513-how-pachters-pre...), but this one just seems a bit too grandiose to me. Anything could happen in the next 5 years, and nobody has a good idea of how it will play out.
And man, he will just not drop this Wii HD thing either.