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Analysts Doubt New Xbox Console
Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter doesn't believe Microsoft will release a new Xbox console next year, contrary to a recent report.
“We will see new SKUs often, with ever increasing hard drives, DVR functionality, probably Internet TV and HDTV tuners built in, but we won't see anything that requires a retooling of software development," Pachter told us.
“If they don't change the CPU/GPU combination, it's not a new console, it's a new SKU. There have been five so far, and this reinforces the commitment to the current cycle. Changing the control scheme to a Natal scheme won't be that complicated for most developers, but retooling for a faster CPU or higher resolution GPU could cost developers a lot of money and time.”
Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls also told us that he doesn't expect to see a new Xbox boasting improved processing and graphical capabilities any time soon. “I believe the idea of an upgraded Xbox 360 that plays better looking and performing games is entirely speculative and unlikely at this stage.”
He noted that future home console hardware upgrades will likely be more iterative than substantive. "I would also suggest that most major upgrades would be around the form factor, connectivity, functionality and storage of the device and not centered on more core issues such as its processing and graphics capability, which would potentially split the addressable market... We've already seen this strategy in the handheld market with the DS/DS Lite/DSi, PSP/PSP Slim and Lite/PSP3000/PSP Go, yet both sets of devices still play the same quality of games and it is safe to assume that the TV console market is likely to develop in the same way."
Pachter also said that a Natal-equipped Xbox 360 could carry a price point similar to current 360 SKUs. "Microsoft needs to target the mainstream, as they have already succeeded with the hardcore. I think that Project Natal is intended to hold off the inevitable launch of Wii Plus (HD), likely coming around the same time. Nintendo looks to me to be on track to launch a new console that is up to the Xbox 360 technical standard some time late next year, and I think that Microsoft intends to respond with a Natal-equipped console of its own at a similar price. My guess is that a Natal-equipped 360 with a large hard drive and DVR functionality could be priced around the same as the current core Xbox 360.”
On potential Natal Xbox 360 bundles and pricing, Harding-Rolls added: "Microsoft's aim is to get the technology to as many users as possible, so I expect the company to be looking at both hardware and software bundling strategies and straight forward accessory sales as a way to get the product into the market. Rumours suggesting the [Natal] camera and technology will retail at around $200 standalone seem wide of the mark. We've seen that Nintendo has had great success with the combined Wii console and Wii Fit/Balance Board price point ($250 + $90) and we would assume that Microsoft would try and emulate that sort of costing when releasing the technology.”
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I think his analysis for once is correct. The core hardware platform will stay the same. It's physical footpint (aka 360 xlim) and/or additional multimedia/HTPC stuff attached to that core hardware is what's up in the air
360 elite with PVR and/or Blu-ray? Totally possible. End user upgradeable hard drives? Definately doable
Most people forget that this is the first gen where 4 years down the road, $199 has not been breached (on the SKUs people actually want anyway), and the install bases suck.
You won't see a 720 in public for at least 2 years, and it will definately be 3-D native in both motion control and getting the goggles on. I know how cool it can be, I had 3D 20 years ago on my master system :)
Didn't Patcher "flip-flop" his PSP-GO statements, like, 48 hours after he made them?
How does anyone take him seriously. Split the market? The Xbox has been around for 5 years! Even an entirely new console, unlikely, wouldn't be surprising. Is he discounting the fact that the DSi's processor is double the original DS, & the App-Store associated with it "splits" the market; not to mention any game that uses the camera.
Analysts only discuss serious businesses that make billions of dollars a year. Gaming hasn't been here until recently; so I'll help them. This has happened 7 times before!
As far as I know Patcher is being in the industry for quite a while plus just like in virtually any other businesses/industry the speculations and predictions are part of the "game" so to speak, its just that we never hear of such speculations since we honestly don't care about the digital cameras or HDTVs, etc.
Analyst discuss serious businesses? Sorry but can't agree with you there, analyst discuss ALL kind of businesses and maybe you are too young too remember but since the NES and the GENESIS gaming has been a billion+ industry, it just happens that we didn't have internet to hear about all the speculations regarding Sega and its 32X add-on that "might" split the market and confuse consumer as to either get a Saturn or wait with their Genesis + 32X system.
I'm 35, & I remember when game editorials discussed gaming. Financial pundits considered gaming for kids - there was a whole argument about this following Mortal Kombat & Night Trap. How can we let our children play Night Trap?
If they've really been studying the market for so long, then these issues can't be as new to them as they're making it sound. Old adages are being discussed like it's brand new to this generation. They all seem so surprised that technology moves forward, & development costs increase with each console. This is such a "matter of course" that I have to question their experience in the field.
Ah, I thought there was some Patchy Fog in the forecast. He sets everyone straight about this "new 360" gibberish but then he goes off on the "Wii Plus (HD)" tangent! Oh, Pachter, I know better than to disagree with you but I'm going to take this Wii Plus talk with a grain of salt for now.
And the question still remains about why Microsoft are leaking this now or at least aren't denying it. They must not have much confidence in their ability to win new customers with their current hardware offerings to start hyping something that's at least a year and a half out. Why would anyone buy a 360 now when they know this better, cheaper whatever-it-is will (eventually) arrive?
"Why would anyone buy a 360 now when they know this better, cheaper whatever-it-is will (eventually) arrive?"
Because the target audience for Natal/360 bundle don't read gaming sites, so they'll have no idea it's coming out until shortly prior to its release.
So then why are Microsoft trying so hard to get the Project Vapor coverage to spill over into mainstream media a la Jimmy Fallon et. al.?
Right now, with all this Project Vapor and "new Xbox" trial balloon nonsense, they are not trying to sell 360s; they are trying to stop people from buying Wiis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware#Anticompetitive_practices
Well, the casuals can be lulled by the simplest of things. If enough mainstream media picks up on this it might just work.
Following your assumptions, Microsoft will have to market the hell out of Natal/360 in all sorts of non gaming mediums many months before launch (at least 6 ), the no reading gaming sites crowd will be well aware of the Natal and eventually look up in gaming sites cause if you are hearing about this new thing that works like the Wii (comparison will be inevitable) non gamers will eventually look around for info and will get the general idea. The current Xbox needs to be at a lower price than the Natal/360, I'm guessing around $99 cheaper so as to make room for both SKUs.
Yeah, I think that's right. They should just follow Nintendo's lead with marketing (I would prefer them not to, but if they want to court that crowd, they'll need to).
This seems much nearer the mark than the super 360 rumored by some. Adding more CPU/GPU power in the middle of a console cycle is only going to split your market and annoy half of your user base. What I suspect is that the new system will simply be the rumored Valhalla chipset with built in Natal.
What's the Valhalla chipset? 45nm GPU/CPU?
Yep, supposedly both on one chip.
Wow, nice.
But nolim, isn't it possible that the super 360 will just have more grahpical options available (ala PC) so developer's games will work on both consoles without having to split the market? PC has been doing it for, I don't know ever?
As much as I would like a beefier 360, it would be a bad move. They'd be upsetting at least a portion of their core audience (sure they're going after the larger casual audience, but there are no gaurantees), and they'd make it harder for developers (I find it very hard to believe they'd be able to create effective tools to scale between the two specs). This would be a step backwards, considering the core audience and the ease of development on the 360 are two things that helped them achieve what they have so far with the 360.
Besides that, I think many sites which have pointed at this story fail to mention that it is purely speculative. Sam Kennedy does mention that fact (but it really doesn't seem to be underlined). The funny thing it seems like the story stemmed from a discussion on the post-E3 1up Listen Up podcast last Friday. The host Garnett Lee has had a long standing prediction that MS will bring out a new console by 2010, and they were debating whether the Natal packaged 360. Natal besides the optical component, will have a CPU and its own RAM, the add-on version of it will house this stuff externally, but the "new" Natal equiped 360 will have it inside the 360.
You're probably right Peter. It seems this rumor has been all but defunct.
Either way, I think it's an interesting and bold move on MS' part to include it in the system and it shows how serious they really are about this product.
Would you want to buy a new 360 for a graphical upgrade on games you can play on the machine you have now? PC gaming demands an upgrade every few years in order to play the latest cutting edge games, if they played OK on your existing PC then why upgrade? Besides the PC is in a constant state of upgrade with new hardware always changing the goal posts (ram, cpu, gpu, fsb speed, slot type, power supply needs etc), do you really want to see that happen to the console market?
Increasing graphical or processing power will only make the 360 a more difficult prospect for developers, with half or more of your customer base still using the old spec system is it worth the time and effort to develop for the more powerful machine? If you need higher resolution art assets for your game to take advantage of the new hardware then you are eating disk space that could be used for more lower resolution art on a normal 360.
Certanly, it's obvious that a new SKU with the cammera included will be lauched, thats a no brainer. But microsost will try to keep it below the 200$ price at least, with an all mighty new elite 360 at 300$.