Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter and EEDAR's Jesse Divnich have published their monthly software and hardware sales forecasts for the US games market in May, ahead of the expected release of official NPD sales data on Thursday.
For the four-week period ended May 30, 2009, Pachter expects software sales of $450 million, down 17 percent compared to last year’s $540 million. He attributes the decline more to difficult year-over-year comparisons than to overall weakness in the economy, noting that the launch of Wii Fit and sales of Grand Theft Auto IV accounted for 26 percent of last May’s total software revenues.
Pachter suggests May 2009 sales were driven by new releases X-Men Origins: Wolverine, EA Sports Active, Punch-Out, UFC 2009: Undisputed and Infamous, as well as continued strong sales of Wii Fit.
Divnich forecasts slightly higher monthly game sales of $457 million, representing a 15 percent drop over last year. “Unit sales are likely to decrease by five percent over last year with a ten percent decrease in the average selling price,” he said, also noting that “March 2006 was the last time the videogame industry posted three negative comp months in a row.”
Both analysts believe nine titles sold over 100,000 copies in May, compared to ten last year.
EEDAR Software sales estimates:
Wii Fit (Wii) - 425,000
EA Sports Active (Wii) - 275,000
UFC 2009: Undisputed (Xbox 360) - 240,000
Mario Kart (Wii) - 236,000
Infamous (PS3) - 185,000
UFC 2009: Undisputed (Xbox 360) - 175,000
Punch Out (Wii) - 175,000
Pokemon Platinum (DS) - 162,000
Wii Play (Wii) - 152,000
New Super Mario Bros. (DS) - 94,500
On the hardware side, Pachter expects “a significant decline” in monthly DSi sales, while Divnich forecasts next-generation hardware sales down 31 percent compared to last May. Hardware sales predictions from both analysts follow:
DS - 440,000 (Webush) 450,000 (EEDAR)
Wii - 300,000 (Webush) 350,000 (EEDAR)
Xbox 360 - 140,000 (Webush) 160,000 (EEDAR)
PS2 - 130,000 (Webush) N/A (EEDAR)
PS3 - 100,000 (Webush) 120,000 (EEDAR)
PSP - 90,000 (Webush) 100,000 (EEDAR)