Ahead of the expected release of August sales data for the US games market this Thursday, Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter and EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich have predicted a sixth consecutive month of software sales decline, although the pair expect things to take a turn for the better the following month.

Both analysts expect monthly software sales to be down 14 per cent year-on-year, somewhere between $472 and $475 million, with the likes of Madden NFL 10, Batman: Arkham Asylum and Wii Sports Resort topping the chart.

But, said Pachter, “we expect this month’s sales decline will be the last we see for the remainder of 2009… The game release schedule finally improved in August, with expected contribution from G.I. Joe, Wolfenstein and Batman: Arkham Asylum. In September, we expect new releases, The Beatles: Rock Band, Halo ODST, Need For Speed: Shift, Guitar Hero 5 and Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2 to drive sales growth into double-digit positive territory.”

Divnich noted: “Looking ahead into September, EEDAR’s Analyst Services Division is certain the industry will return to positive comps. In fact, new releases alone will likely account for over $400 million in revenue. Back catalogue should account for at least $300 million, which would put September up at least 14 per cent over last year. October is currently expected to be flat, with November and December landing in the -5 per cent to +5 per cent range.”

On the hardware front, the analysts expect combined unit sales to be down 24–28 per cent year-on-year.

Estimated monthly hardware sales (Wedbush / EEDAR):
Wii - 240,000 (-47%) / 235,000 (-48%)
PS3 - 160,000 (-14%) / 140,000 (-24%)
Xbox 360 - 205,000 (5%) / 190,000 (-3%)
PS2 - 100,000 (-31%) / 95,000 (-34%)
PSP - 130,000 (-49%) / 110,000 (-57%)
DS - 490,000 (-5%) / 490,000 (-5%)
Totals - 1,325,000 (-24%) / 1,260,000 (-28%)

However, hardware sales are also expected to rise in the months leading up to Christmas, driven by recent price cuts, anticipated upcoming price cuts and new hardware launches.

“Sony cut the PS3 price in the last week of the month, and we expect to see PS3 sales grow substantially in September,” said Pachter, adding that he expects a Wii price cut “no later than November.” He also predicted a DS Lite price cut to $99 around the time of the PSP Go’s October 1 launch.