Wedbush Morgan and EEDAR have issued December 2009 sales predictions for the US games industry ahead of the NPD Group’s release of monthly market data later this week.
Industry software sales have fallen for eight of the last nine months, and Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter expects sales to decline again in December, primarily due to “weak music sales”.
Pachter forecasts software sales of $2.45 billion, down 12 per cent compared to last year’s $2.77 billion. Music genre sales are thought to have declined from $468 million in December 2009 to $250 million.
December’s bestselling game is expected to be Nintendo’s DS exclusive The Legend Of Zelda: Spirit Tracks. Pachter says other top performers will be Call Of Duty Modern Warfare 2, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, Left 4 Dead 2 and Assassin’s Creed 2.
On the hardware front Pachter expects a seven per cent increase in total units sold, with declines in PS2, DS and PSP sales compared to December 2009. Wii sales are thought to have risen by 49 per cent to top three million units, as previously reported, while PS3 sales could be up as much as 100 per cent, according to EEDAR.
Wedbush / EEDAR hardware sales predictions (change year-on-year):
Wii - 3,200,000 (49%) / 3,000,000 (40%)
DS - 2,450,000 (-19%) / 2,800,000 (-8%)
PS3 - 1,400,000 (93%) / 1,450,000 (100%)
Xbox 360 - 1,350,000 (-6%) / 1,490,000 (3%)
PSP - 650,000 (-36%) 7,00,000 (-31%)
PS2 - 350,000 (-15%) / 350,000 (-15%)
Total - 9,400,000 (7%) / 9,790,000 (11%)
Why do these people bother predicting sales numbers a few days before NPD actually announce them? What use is that? We should just ignore and wait, like, two days for the actual figures.
I was wondering the same thing. But come to think of it, some investors may want to make some moves in anticipation of the actual results, and it's the job of these analysts to give an idea of what to expect.
If I recall correctly, Pachter's forecast wasn't exactly spot on last month.
Everyone was off last month - particularly with the 360 outselling the PS3. No one expected that.