Game industry analysts have weighed in with sales forecasts for August 2010 ahead of the expected release of US market data from the NPD Group this Thursday.
Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter forecast software sales of $445 million, down six per cent compared to last August’s $471 million.
“We expect August software sales to be down again (the sixth month out of eight) due to a lighter release schedule and weak catalog sales momentum,” he said in a research note. “Despite sales growth of five per cent year-over-year for top release Madden NFL 10 (announced by EA), we think that last year’s Eidos’ Batman: Arkham Asylum ($38 million) and Nintendo’s Wii Sports Resort ($37 million) presents a difficult comparison. We expect music genre sales in August to be $8 million compared to $25 million last August, with the impact from declines lessening each month going forward.”
Pachter expects August’s top selling titles to be led by new releases Madden NFL 11, Kane & Lynch 2: Dog Days and Mafia II, along with catalogue sales of Red Dead Redemption, NCAA Football 11, Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Wii Fit Plus.
Pachter and research firm EEDAR predicted another strong month for Xbox 360 sales, although the news was less positive across the board, with PS3 the only other console forecast to experience year-over-year growth. “Overall, we expect a seven per cent decrease in current generation hardware units, with console hardware unit sales up 17 per cent, offset by a 31 per cent decline in handheld hardware,” Pachter said.
“We expect demand for Xbox 360 to remain high given the release in August of the new slim Xbox 360 Arcade at the same $199 price point…. Sony may have benefited from the August release of the 160Gb (up from 120Gb) PS3 at the same $299 price.”
Pachter / EEDAR August sales estimates (change year-over-year):
DS - 405,000 (-27%) / 365,000 (-34%)
Xbox 360 - 330,000 (+53%) / 390,000 (+81%)
Wii - 275,000 (-1%) / 240,000 (-13%)
PS3 - 220,000 (+5%) / 2 30,000 (+10%)
PSP - 75,000 (-47%) / 80,000 (-43%)
PS2 - 25,000 (-76%) / NA
Total - 1 ,330,000 (-11%) / 1,305,000 (-13%)