What DFC’s report didn’t do is predict which console would “win” the next generation console wars. “Uncertainty is truly the keyword going forward,” said DFC analyst David Cole. “Three solid video game systems are competing for market share and it will probably be two-to-three years before a true leader is determined.”
While uncertainty is the “keyword” for the next generation, there is one prediction that DFC is rather confident in noting: that no next generation console “is likely” to match the market dominance of the PlayStation 2. “At its peak PlayStation 2 software alone accounted for about 30 percent of worldwide interactive entertainment revenue. By 2011 we forecast that all console software combined will only account for about a third of worldwide sales,” said Cole.
The firm said that no matter which company becomes king of the console hill this time around, the overall market growth will be about the same.
DFC’s forecasts take into account revenue from game console hardware and software, dedicated portable system hardware and software, PC games and online PC and console games.
“The video game business is changing in major ways,” said George Chronis, author of the DFC report Video Games at the Crossroads: Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo and the Battle for the Console Market.
He continued, “Sony and Nintendo are shaking up the industry with new business models. These are uncertain times where neither conventional wisdom nor historical data necessarily predict who the winners and losers will be during the next three-to-five years.”