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EA Expects “Very Extended” Console Cycle
Electronic Arts CEO John Riccitiello has said that the publisher is preparing for an extended console cycle.
Speaking during an earnings call following the release of the company’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2009 results, he said that the current core hardware would have longer legs than the home consoles introduced throughout the late 80s and 90s.
“I think there is always going to be new aspects, new handhelds and new peripherals and new things that are coming out that involve investment from companies like ours. And there’s I think an increased rate of change provided for by first parties - I mean, I would look at frankly the iPhone as a new platform in the handheld industry. So if you are looking for… good solid reasons for investing in R&D against new platforms, the market is providing us that,” he said, according to a transcript of the call on Seeking Alpha.
“However, I would point out that what traditionally is viewed as a new platform is when the industry in a consolidated or collective way, steps forward with a more powerful CPU or GPU, GPU/CPU combination, more processing power, traditionally married to different choices on medium. Those can be cartridged CD or DVD, and those big changes are not something that we are seeing the need for in an immediate term, nor do we expect it in the medium term.
“So what I’m talking about is frankly we can do high definition gaming today that you can show off on the best available monitor, that you can spend thousands of dollars for, and that’s already provided for.
“I think that arms race, while I can never say that it’s done, the relevance of doing that faster and faster as it had been traditionally done in the late 80s and 90s, seems to have subsided, and so we are projecting relative to the core tech we developed for, for that to be a very extended cycle.”
Last week Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot said the publisher was already preparing for a new generation of consoles, which he expects to launch in the next few years.
"We need to get ready for the future generation of consoles," he said. "In the next few years, there will be new home and handheld consoles, and if you don't invest... you will not be able to cope with both [the existing and new generation consoles].”
Meanwhile, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says he doubts a new hardware cycle will begin before 2013, if at all.
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While dreamhunk isn't doing a very good job of stating his case coherently, the basis of his argument is actually quite sound. Consoles have always followed the technological lead of PC and the sales pendulum has always swung between the two markets - strong console sales the first few years after a new gen of consoles launch and then increasing PC sales as consoles get long in the tooth.
Costs of PC components drop at a much faster rate thanks to open market competition (all consoles are by definition closed systems) and there is always a point in time where console gamers look enviously at what the PC gaming market is offering and start switching over (or at least vocally complaining why their games aren't as good) when a cheap, decent PC is capable of doing more than their old consoles.
I've been a passionate gamer literally since Pong and it never fails to amuse me how this same argument comes up each and every generation. Dont' believe the PR spin from Sony - there will be new consoles from at least MS and Nintendo no later than Holiday 2011, forcing Sony either to follow suit or risk losing even more market share and relevance. Technology doesn't stop advancing simply because it's in the best financial interest of one company for it do to so.
I don't actually know anyone who has looked over enviously to PC's let alone switched over at the end of a console cycle, partly because the end of a console cycle has often brought about some stunning games. From the tail end of the last 2 PlayStation consoles:
PlayStation 2: Seven years in; Final Fantasy XII, God of War II. Eight years in; Persona 3, Yakuza 2. Nine years in; Persona 4.
Playstation: Six years in; Colony Wars: Red Sun, Dragon Quest VII, Final Fantasy IX, Colin McRae Rally 2.0, Vagrant Story. Seven Years in; Fear Effect 2, Mega Man X5, Breath of Fire IV.
Remember, creating and bringing a new console to market is a monstrously expensive thing, and the DS and Wii success has shown that there isn't really a need for bigger and better graphics all the time now. Given the global financial crisis, it's totally plausible that we could be waiting as long as 2013 for the next set of consoles.
alot of console game devs and companies are going bankuprt. or losing money right now. It's because of consoles and high production costs. THQ just reported major lossies and #d realms just went bankuprt! NO MORE DUKE NUKEM!
http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/58519
http://www.vg247.com/2009/05/06/thq-posts-431-million-loss-for-fiscal-ye...
pc gaming companies are making money and console companies is taking major lossies.
And yet EA Sports titles aren't financially viable on PC, yet rake in millions on consoles!
Dreamhunk, give it up.
This stuff with the ten year console cycle is a joke. The "very extended" cycle means seven to eight years maximum for the 360/PS3 and five to six years for the little Wii. So this means:
Wii - 2011/2012
360 - 2012/2013
PS3 - 2013
The reason for this extension is not because they're just not in the mood, but because of the technological parity a 500$ machine provides against the PC opposed to a 300/350$ machine. Rather then the usual two years it will take maybe four until the gap between the PS3/360 and PC becomes more noticeable and people start asking for next generation consoles.
Riccitiello's just jumping on the Patchy Fog console lifecycle prediction bandwagon.
PACHTER RULES!!!
I'll believe it when I see it. Companies seem to have a hard-on for selling consoles at a loss. Throw in "System-on-a-Chip" & GPGPU, not to mention SDXC 2TB storage with 100MB/sec read speed.
I don't see anything slowing down.
Even the bad pc games graphics and gameplay is starting to look and play better than consoles. Also pc gaming and pc’s are alot cheaper than consoles. There is no way consoles are going to able to be compative in the long run. Also once a console is in a deline it will be hard to make a profit on them.Not only that onlive shoud be ready in about 3 years. Crytek them self had siad that onlive should be ready in 2013.
http://kotaku.com/5195486/crytek-the-internet-isnt-ready-for-streaming-g...
Not only that we are in a ression so who really knows what will happen.
:) The machines of the "Borg" are certainly more powerful but cheap - nooooo.
This was an article solely about console. What does that have to do with PC graphics and what Crytek said about OnLive?!?
There isn't but the most tenuous link to what you have posted. You're sounding like a broken record. Change the record FFS!
It has nothing to do with it, he's just fantasising about the domination of PC's again.
PC games looking better than their console counterparts, fair point, they may well do. Play better? Hugely subjective there!
However, the point is that for all that PC's might be all powerful and be able to steal processing power from the 4th dimension, that doesn't change the fact that EA still plan to release FIFA, Tiger Woods, Madden and NCAA Football on the PlayStation 2, a console released nine years ago. It doesn't seem to matter how powerful PC's are, many people simply don't care. I'd wager a PS2 is a damn sight cheaper than a gaming PC as well.
The success of the Wii and the DS absolutely showcase that power isn't everything. You can hope and pray all you want that consoles are going to disappear dreamhunk, but it simply isn't happening. If nothing else, the convenience of a console will always win out.
OnLive might well be ready in 2013 (your link suggests perhaps longer though), but they are concentrating initially on games through the PC, rather than in the living room. OnLive won't be competing with consoles for a very long time, if ever.
Conspiracy to do what exactly?
Does anyone else suspect an EA/SCE conspiracy? A few things have raised my eyebrows over the last year or so - this just sent them into orbit.