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Guitar Hero "Has Not Peaked"
Lagging sales of Guitar Hero: World Tour are not an indication that the $1 billion-plus franchise has "peaked," analyst Todd Greenwald with Signal Hill contended on Wednesday.
"Guitar Hero sell-through a bit soft, but not a disaster," said Greenwald of Activision's latest franchise entry, which incorporates microphone, drum and guitar controllers. He said the full band bundle has sold well, but admitted sales of the standalone game and guitar/software kit have been "sluggish" when compared to the record-breaking Guitar Hero III.
However, he refused to believe that the franchise's popularity has peaked. "Despite this 'weakness,' we disagree strongly with those who contend that Guitar Hero is a 'fad,' or that the franchise peaked last year with [Guitar Hero III]."
Greenwald added, "For the year, the overall Guitar Hero franchise is up substantially (including extensions like Guitar Hero Aerosmith and Guitar Hero On Tour). North America sales are likely to be up over 20 percent for the year, while Europe could be up nearly 300 percent. Furthermore, the title count will expand materially in 2009, driving further growth with potential titles like GH: Metallica, GH: Jimi Hendrix, DJ Hero and more."
UBS analyst Ben Schachter recently reported that the Guitar Hero franchise sold 1.7 million units in the U.S. during November, down 25 percent year-on-year. Rival music franchise Rock Band sold a relatively few 629K, although sales were up 65 percent for the busy shopping month.
Greenwald's comments counter those made by Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich, who said that franchises like Guitar Hero and Rock Band will have a large, loyal fanbase for the next 10 years, but argued that sales show popularity is reaching its peak.
Lowered estimates
Due to recent softness of Guitar Hero, Greenwald lowered Q4 estimates to $2.2 billion in revenue and earnings per share of 29 cents, down from $2.3 billion and 32 cents.
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I think the fact that they're making a Metallica expansion at all is proof enough that they're stretching it a bit. (Because Metallica is mostly trash.)
That must be why they've not sold any records and play tiny little gigs to a handfull of people at a time. I hope the name jazzbrownie is some sort of hashcake pseudonym, or I might have to reach for my Tony Wilson quote.
Popularity and record sales don't equal quality music. The vast majority of the people I've met are morons.
I'm not sure Greenwald knows what 'peaked' means... Unless GHIII found a local maximum, it's pretty obvious the series has indeed, peaked.
Victims of their own (over)saturation they are... really a gazillion band/era centric releases when someone else has awesome DLC (referring to quantity not quality)
Did ten have black? That's one of my favorite Pearl Jam songs. Yeah, Activision needs to change the way they do DLC, that's one area I can ADMIT harmonix does better. I actually have been playing more RB lately, tried breakneck speed, I can't see up the note highway that far, it was actually more difficult for me. Workin on coheed, love that song. Almost 100% the solo (on expert of course). Beat afterlife on expert, too (one of the toughest solos rock band's side of TtFaF), it wasn't pretty, but I beat it nonetheless.
Well, to be fair, Rock Band 2's sales having been exploding either. I think GH needs to just do guitar, cause GH: WT bores me to death. Cool songs to listen to, but not necessarily play. Hendrix's purple rain, Willie Nelson's on the road again, and Lynyrd Skynyrd's Sweet Home Alabama are about the only songs that are really fun (and they're all live versions, too).
THe GH:WT setlist was quite frankly, poop if you were just playing guitar. The entire Ten album is awesome, it's one of those rare albums like RATM:RATM where every song is a winner.
Isn't the entire premise kind of doomed to failure from the start though? You're making a rythmn guitar game so you pick the best tunes for it you can think of, the sequel you get to stick in all the stuff you couldn't fit, the third one you've still got some great stuff to choose from but there's a couple of fillers as well, and so on....
With each new release there's pressure to include more songs and your pool to choose from is gradually shrinking.
Also like you mention Nick, some of these songs are cool to listen to, but not to play.
Ya, Black is definitely on Ten.
I think when comparing the sales between RB2 and GH: WT, it's important to note that the 360 disc version came out in September, so sales from the hardcore Rock Band fans who play on a 360 are not counted in any head to head months. As well, I think the Wii version of Rock Band comes out this or next week, and I think it'll end up being the best selling version, much like how the Wii version of GH:WT is so far the best selling version. The best comparison of overall sales of the two games, will be the numbers post holiday.
Activision won't ignore the accessory market (and all my RB love aside, RedOctane does make a better guitar), so I don't think they'll ever go back to guitar-centric. And even if they did, I won't go back to them...not unless they return to form! But RB is that form, so oh well.
Yes, Black is in Ten. What an awesome album release! It's perfect for a rhythm game.
I also strongly encourage you to keep using breakneck speed till you get used to it. I can't emphasize enough how my scores improved as a result. Ditto in Guitar Hero -- use hyperspeed! You'll practically be obligated to in the Metallica release.
Well, at least the band-specific games will be guitar only (correct me if I'm wrong).
Sweet, I'm not the biggest Pearl Jam fan (the only album of their's I bought was Yield). But Black is one of my favorite songs so I may have to get that album.
I realized RB's note chart highway doesn't go up quite as much so I have less time to react. I'm aware that if I memorize the songs like I should that wouldn't be a problem...all I need is time, which I don't have these days (Darn 3 month old!).
Something definitely was missing from GH: WT. I would get rid of it if it wasn't for the potential of some really cool DLC. Some Deftones or Chevelle (I don't want to hear anything Vader ^^) would be nice. Maybe Guitar Hero Metallica will put the focus back where GH needs to to put it, on the Guitar.
Booooo.........boooo!!!
Pearl Jam's Ten is coming to Rock Band in March....ichewawa, peaked my arse. If Activision loved you, they'd release Metallica as a la carte DLC too.
I still say the franchise is weakening as people get wise to the wolf in sheep's wool. The industry is fine, though.