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John Carmack: Sony Likely To Release First Next Gen Console
id Software technical director John Carmack expects Sony to be the first of the platform holders to release a new console.
"The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things," he said. "Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely.
“As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next gen console comes out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later," Carmack told CD Action (via Eurogamer’s Digital Foundry).
He also said that that he expects at least one of the next generation of games consoles to release without optical media.
"I think that Xbox Live... the advent of that and the App Store with the iPhone are wonderful signs of the future of digital distribution. I think there's a decent chance that one of the next gen consoles will be without optical media... the uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected."
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The only fault I see with Carmack's conjecture is that Sony is financially in the worst position to even develop another console. Unless they just tweak the PS3 and call it the PS4 I don't see them spending another billion dollars developing a true next gen console before either MS or Nintendo.
I think he's absolutely right about at least one of the next consoles being download only. In the US, the demographic that is buying consoles matches exactly with the demographic that has broadband already and the caps are high enough (250Gig from the largest provider) and are only temporary while they finish upgrading their infrastructure.
You can already view/download manuals to every 360 game on xbox.com for those who like to peruse manuals (non-issue for most). There are certainly negatives (you can't trade in games) and potential for corporate abuse from a download only service but competition should prevent the worst case scenarios some are predicting here. Those who refuse to buy a console/pc game because it is download only are going to find themselves only playing legacy games in a few years because there is no doubt that physical media WILL be obsolete before too long - it's just a question of precisely how long.
broadband roll out is still a train wreck, when viewed in the light of digital distribution of very big (multi gig) files. Areas beyond the magic '2 mile from exchange' are making do with speeds around 1 to 2 mb, despite paying for 8 mb. Then we have the problem of data capping and so called fair use policy and of course throttling. ISP's live in a world where they want 98% of their customers using and paying for an 8mb connection to just look at facebook. It is going to get ugly and fast.
The console without the optical disk is premature. All users are not broadband though I am an optical fiber. However, the problem of the biggest network is equipment of the sender. It is impossible without causing the network fault for a large amount of user at the release date of new software to send it to them. It is a company and user's loss. The optical disk is more inexpensive. All the next generation consoles will use both the optical disk and download.
It could be released without optical media. I don't know why he didn't stop there? There are other forms of storage besides discs.
I don't know why the prospect of flash memory never comes up? Nintendo has always hated discs, Microsoft needs a non-Sony medium that can store massive amounts of data, & Sony, now seeing serious movement with Blu-Ray players, really doesn't need to validate the platform.
32GB memory cards are getting manageability cheaper. In a couple of years, 64GB should be at "rock-bottom" prices. Plus, the memory's expandable. As the console matures, so can the games; just like the cartridge days. New cards are as fast as hard-discs, and hold a 0-millisecond seek time. What's the problem?
Woah, Carmack speculation gets treated as BIG news story.
He 'Suspects' and 'Expects' Jeez he`s good, what next o mythical one? The Next machine from sony will have the word Playstation...Followed by a Number?.
I have no issues with him or any other developer making some 'educated' guesswork' on what the future holds, but how it rates as A big news story? i just cannot see.
While I might be more interested in some other people's opinions, it's completely appropriate for Carmack to speculate on major trends in an industry that he's worked in for the majority of its existence and stayed entirely relevant throughout.
PCs and consoles may be lumped together in the same industry but their markets have always been distinctive, Carmack might be some big shot in the PC market but he really doesn't know anything about consoles
Considering he works with the same publishers that publish on consoles, he's supported virtually every console with a version of their games since Wolfenstein which is pretty much all their games. They licenced their engines for use on those consoles too.
Your comment is simply ignorant rubbish.
While your comment is simply not backed up at all by the quotes in this story. He might as well have predicted that the next generation of consoles will run on electricity.
You realize he's talking exclusively about consoles in this article, right?
Those are some deep insights. Now back to your cube, engine boy.
Why does carmack suddenly feel the need to voice his opinion on absolutely everything?
Carmack has always been pretty vocal, but up until recently he spent all his time in the PC market. I've been reading his commentary in PC World/Magazine for over a decade. If you think he's vocal now, you should have heard him during the development of Quake III. He never shut up.
The PS3 is doing fine for being almost twice the price, and 1 year behind... Its right around 7mill short... I don't get why this guy would say such a statement, anyhow - its him who also mentioned that PS3 is lagging behind X360 in his game which looks like was optimized for the PC architecture.
Anyhow that is irrelevant, if he cant make great games on PS3 ill put my money elsewhere... Its been a long time since i bought any game made by them anyway...
Just because you keep saying it doesn't make it true. The ps3 is losing ground to all its competitors month in, month out and its year on year hardware and software sales have declined a great deal.
Carmack should just stick with PCs, he doesn't understand the console market at all
He's made a fair chunk of money out of consoles. He's had more console experience than Epic and in fact Id have put games on more variety of systems (including phones) than most companies ever will.
I disagree. I think he understands it just fine. He made a point echoed by many people on the speed of broadband uptake. He said there's "a decent chance," as in he's not saying it's a given. He's also saying something that anyone with a modicum of historical knowledge knows to be true, that whichever company is doing the worst in the most recent cycle is highly likely to be the first entrant in the next.
anyone with a modicum of historical knowledge knows that the Gamecube did the worst last gen and the Wii was the last entrant this cycle
I disagree. The sales were poor, but Nintendo made a lot of money off of the Gamecube. First party games sold very well, and the systems (global) attach rate is nearly 10, which is better than all of Nintendo's other systems. The Xbox also sold well enough, and had a dynamite attach rate, but it was losing money hand over fist for Microsoft.
How did the Gamecube do worse? It sold nearly as many units as the Xbox despite having fuck all games and it made big profits. MS lost shit loads of cash on the xbox.
I'm not sure how you see a company making profits as being a failure.
I wouldn't say the Wii was the last entrant just because it launched in the US 4 days later than Sony. Seeing how Sony couldn't shop to all major markets until 2007.
You forget that you are talking about Nintendo here, this generation they did many unthinkable things and hit the jackpot because of it.
You don't think Carmack should talk about consoles? Then how about the big enchiladas at EA, Activision and even Sony and Microsoft. The first companies put all their hopes on the 360 and to some extent even more on the PS3 while thinking Nintendo was going way off with the casual Wii and their weird Wiimote.
Fast forward now and MS and Sony are releasing their own answers to the Wii in the form of Natal and the motion sticks. Its pretty obvious now why Nintendo being last didn't go first the Wii was completely different from anything ever seen before it so it took them time to get it right, now in the case of the last generation the PS2 was SO BIG that even though the Gamecube was technically last it wasn't by such a big margin compared to the Xbox so it was actually pretty natural that one of them will try to get a head start on the PS3 and that happened to be the 360, Nintendo had other plans that's all.
Bottom line even if you are in the console business since forever or are more like Carmack a PC sort of expert, you can be right or wrong no matter. In this case I think he is right on predicting that Sony will try to get a head start next time around.
I will NOT buy DL only hardware. It really is that simple- I want to own the content physically in my hand and be able to lend games to friends and trade in naff titles. Developers and hardware producers needs to put this particular wet dream to bed IMO.
I was thinking the same thing.
But I don't think Carmack speaks from a "wet dream" perspective. I think he's merely musing on where the market will go.
I think physical media will be around for some time because people like the manuals, the cases, and the physical stuff that comes with owning the game. The used game market is a real value incentive for buyers of new games. The ability to carry games from system to system is also something not easily overcome.
And from a pirater's standpoint, a fully digital system IS a wet dream. You'd think that would worry the same people who claim that piracy is destroying the industry.
Although I completely agree that optical media is going away - SDXC, why are the most inappropriate people feeling they are qualified to predict hardware trends these days?
He practically created (or made mainstream if you are too picky on the subject) an entire genre with Doom, Quake, etc. He also got the following:
- In 1999, Carmack appeared as number 10 in Time's list of the 50 most influential people in technology.
- Carmack became the fourth person to be inducted into the Academy of Interactive Arts and Sciences' Hall of Fame, an honor bestowed upon those who have made revolutionary and innovative achievements in the video and computer game industry.
I think hardware developers, the people actually in charge of designing the next-gen consoles will be interested in what he and for that matter all the main game developers and designers have to say.
Nicely said Indrema.
may be because they are the users and their opinion matters. Physical owning is very desired for many. And download 18-24 GB of Rage seems really awful instead of single BRD. future games may be 50 GB soon. Think.
I hate how they never take into account hurdles that companies face in the execution of their ideas. Your point is the biggest challenge of all.
Beyond the fact that a 50GB gane would be horrific to download, companies would have to accept a "glass ceiling" of sorts in this model. With only a finite amount of space, there would need to be a strategy in place to prevent a sales-slowing due to this effect. Once storage runs low, it is conceivable that a consumer becomes more conservative in their purchases. This space would also have to be shared with convergence technologies, like movies & DLC's.
Rentals - a good portion of industry revenue , would need a new model, but that would lead to new forms of piracy that would allow for exponentially smaller downloads to steal games. Eliminating rentals would have to levied against the losses accrued from used games sales. Companies may be trading one annoyance for another.
There would also have to be a new model in place for retailers; since you can't download the unit itself. Stores make almost no money on systems; instead relying on game sales & accessories. Removing half of that equation would make it much less enticing to stock the systems. A console gets someone in the store so they can buy the game. They advertise, and provide demo experience for non-owners. They can be a great tool to increase your install base, ("playing" ownership in a store goes a long way to making a sale). You could work out a gift card system - a $50 gift card costs the store $40, but once you log your credit card on the company's online service, returning to the store seems pointless.
Lastly, there is an issue with the internet itself. This being is a U.K. site, many people may not be aware of the fact American internet companies are attempting to evolve in a way that makes high-bandwidth users pay exponentially more money per month than standard users, sometimes doubling their bill. The United States is, as of right now, the largest, single-country consumer of video games. Until this is sorted out, no one will want to implement a large-scale, petabyte-busting operating model.
The most probable thing seems that retail and digital download will continue to co-exist with even higher capacity dvds coming. For ex. a 300 GB HDVD was already made operational 4 years ago in labs. These things are going to explode out. Network speed with cheap rates is not keeping up with massive advancements in storage media capacity. From time immemorial we are running out of space on our disks.
This seems to continue. For movies it means mor esharpnes on bigger screens and for games it means more high res textures. Textures in movie Spiderman 3 special effects took terrabytes of storage whereas Rage uncompressed build takes almost one terrabyte, and this devs are crazy for movie like quality games, (some have approached it also like crysis). It seems storage space is going to be a lot bigger factor then carmack thinks.
For ex. Why did he decided to make Rage such a big size game(reason this is unavidable in search of superior visuals), already MGS 4 dev is crazy with long long videos and does not care of space. I really do not want to download those movies if ever, just the game. I actually deleted all movies from Devil may cry 3 to save space(There were in game and mpeg version both, mpeg took 2 gb while the game itself was about 800 mb)