July NPD: Software Sales Declined, Says Analyst

July NPD: Software Sales Declined, Says Analyst

Game industry analysts have weighed in with sales forecasts for July 2010 ahead of the release of US market data from the NPD Group this Thursday.

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter expects software sales of $405 million, down 7.5 per cent compared to July 2009’s $438 million.

Pachter thinks the bestselling console games last month were new releases Crackdown 2 and NCAA Football 11, with older titles Red Dead Redemption, Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Wii Fit Plus also performing well.

“… We expect July software sales to be down again (for the fifth month this year) due to lacklustre release schedule for console games and weak sales momentum,” he said in a research note. “Software sales in June were down 15 per cent due to weak releases and the continued migration of game playing away from packaged goods purchases and toward multiplayer online, and we expect the July sales trend to be similar.”

In contrast, Pachter expects the hardware market to show year-over-year growth for July, with Xbox 360 remaining the bestselling home console month-over-month, although rival analysis firm Electronic Entertainment Design and Research’s forecast is less optimistic.

Pachter / EEDAR released the following console sales estimates for July 2010 (change year-on-year):

DS – 405,000 (-25%) / 403,000 (-25%)
Xbox 360 – 355,000 (+75%) / 309,000 (+52%)
Wii – 310,000 (+23%) / 274,000 (+9%)
PS3 – 230,000 (+89%) / 201,000 (+65%)
PSP – 85,000 (-31%) / 67,000 (-45%)
PS2 – 45,000 (-58%) / NA
Total – 1,430,000 (+6%) / 1,254,000 (-7%)