June NPD: Analysts Predict Fourth Consecutive Sales Decline

June NPD: Analysts Predict Fourth Consecutive Sales Decline

June NPD: Analysts Predict Fourth Consecutive Sales Decline

Citing the overall weakness in the economy, a relatively light release schedule and slow hardware sales arising from price fatigue, industry analysts expect NPD sales figures for June to show a fourth consecutive month of decline when they’re released on Thursday evening.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter forecast US software sales of $670 million, down 23 per cent compared to last year’s $876 million, while Jesse Divnich of EEDAR estimated $697 million, representing a 20 per cent decrease.

Pachter also predicted a 43 per cent year-over-year combined unit sales decline for Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii, while Divnich expects hardware unit sales for the “next-generation systems” to decrease by 33 per cent over last year, with all platforms bar Xbox 360 posting a year-over-year drop.

According to both analysts, tough year-over-year comparisons will likely contribue to the monthly decline, with less high profile games and hardware bundles available during June 2009 than last year.

Pachter said solid releases like EA’s Rock Band for Wii and Konami’s Metal Gear Solid 4 for PS3 contributed $87 million and ten per cent of June 2008’s total sales, while Divnich pointed to the successful launch of both PSP and PS3 software bundles – featuring God Of War: Chains Of Olympus and Metal Gear Solid 4 - in June 2008.

EEDAR June software sales predictions follow:

Prototype (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, 450,000 units)
Fight Night Round 4 (EA, Xbox 360 390,000 units)
Wii Fit w/Balance Board (Nintendo, Wii, 390,000 units)
EA Sports Active (EA, Wii,  350,000 units)
UFC 2009 Undisputed (THQ, Xbox 360, 275,000 units)
Prototype (Activision Blizzard, PS3, 230,000 units)
Red Faction: Guerrilla (THQ, Xbox 360, 225,000 units)
Fight Night Round 4 (EA, PS3, 216,000 units)
Wii Play w/Remote (Nintendo, Wii 180,000 units)
Ghostbusters ( Atari, Xbox 360, 175,222 units)

Wedbush Morgan and EEDAR hardware sales predictions:

DS – 700,000  (Webush) 725,000 (EEDAR)
Wii – 350,000 (Webush) 355,000 (EEDAR)
Xbox 360 – 225,000 (Webush) 230,000 (EEDAR)
PS3 – 165,000 (Webush) 170,000 (EEDAR)
PSP – 130,000 (Webush) 125,000  (EEDAR)
PS2 – 100,000 (Webush) N/A (EEDAR)