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New Xbox Coming Fall 2010?

Tom Ivan's picture

By Tom Ivan

June 15, 2009

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Microsoft is reportedly planning to release a new Xbox console packaged with Project Natal in autumn 2010.

1UP suggests that the new console will be a slight upgrade of the Xbox 360, featuring similar hardware but able to support better looking and performing games, in addition to current Xbox 360 titles. Said to be targeted at a mainstream audience, it will be repackaged, rebranded and come with Project Natal as standard.

“Make no mistake, we wouldn't be talking about the sort of hardware leap we've seen with Xbox (or most other) platforms in the past, and we're not talking about Microsoft ending one console cycle and starting another,” says the report, which the site clearly labels as rumour for the time being.

“It's likely that all future hardware will be more iterative than substantive," it adds. "The distinction between new consoles will become far less marked - similar to what we've seen in the handheld space, such as with the transitions from the Game Boy to the Game Boy Advance, the DS to the DSi, or the PSP to the PSP Go.”

The report suggests that publishers will be able to support owners of both the Xbox 360 and the new console without difficulty, and that the new system will likely be unveiled at next year's Game Developers Conference.

Last week Shane Kim, Microsoft's corporate vice president for the Xbox platform, said that, “conceptually, the launch of Natal will be like the launch of Xbox 360. It's going to be that big.” He added that Microsoft is hoping to capture the non videogame playing market with Natal.

A Microsoft spokesperson told Edge today that the company doesn't comment on "rumour and speculation."

German's picture

I remember the E3 conference when Microsoft unveiled project Natal and they "casually" mentioned that it will work will "ALL" Xbox 360 versions, at that time it sounded kind of dull since you will expect that so no need to point it out, but now with this RUMOR that comment is starting to make a LOT of sense, I guess more than bringing an upgrade to the 360 its more about making project Natal a standard in game developers minds so it wont be restricted to the "Add on" realm where, while successful, only a 10-20% of the installed user base will have it.

By adding Natal as a standard in all future 360's not only you guarantee a big enough installed base to entice developers but also to assure old 360 users that the purchase of Natal is well worth it as it shows its a commitment for the long run and not some SEGA 32X or Sega CD "old school" game industry practice :P

Indrema's picture

This is getting confusing.

The general consensus seems to be that if the Xbox launches their "upgrade" next Summer...or whatever, it will split the market, & be destructive to them.

If the new device launches between Summer & Fall of next year, it will be nearly the same amount of time between the launch of the PSONE & PS2. At the time, Sony claimed to support both systems, & they had close to 100 million install base. Developers would find that the new platform was incompatible to the old platform.

They did alright.

Adam128's picture

There seems to be some pretty angry object to this but i think it actually makes quite a lot of sense for a couple of reasons.

First the 360 is starting to show its age. As MS has worked incredibly hard and thrown around a lot of money to create the large user base that the 360 now has it would be a huge risk to launch another full console generation. Also graphic improvements have slowed down so it would be hard to justify and would not represent the type of leap we expect from a new generation.
If they launch a 360 PLUS (or whatever they brand it as) and make future games work on the original as well as the upgrade it shouldn't really effect existing 360 users who don't want it.
It's not what we are used to but it would be a good way to keep the brand fresh for another 5 or so years.

Alex Walker's picture

I'd like to see your reasoning for your '360 starting to show it's age' comment.

Jack_'s picture

This would be terrible for everyone.

NickgamertagO1's picture

Why is it terrible for a console but accepted when it's a handheld? The DSi isn't that much cheaper than the $199 arcade 360 so price really isn't an issue. I know on the surface it seems like a terrible idea, it could potentially split their audience and end up a total mess or enough people will buy into the new one enough to where it'll be a viable console alongside the existing 360 (like the DS is now with the DSi). The original DS has enough units out there for developers to keep making non-DSi games for it just as the original 360 has enough units for developers to keep supporting it that way. Once the DSi has a substantial amount of units companies can start making DSi specific games for it that aren't supported by the original DS and MS could be as fortunate to end up in the same situation. Eventually enough people will upgrade to the Natal version to where the original will stop getting many games made for it and it'll be a smooth transition.

Call me a fanboy, but I'm just being optimistic. MS has to price it competitively ($299 or less with Natal bundle and HDD standard thank you very much). Nintendo took a huge gamble with the Wii and it worked out. Everyone including myself scoffed at the idea of last-gen tech with motion control and we all know how that’s turned out. Now we get next-gen tech with motion control (unproven at this time I know) and here we are naysaying yet again. I’m going to have an open mind about companies breaking free from 25 year-old industry practices.

toadwarrior's picture

There is no real difference between a DS and DSI. The improvements are in things you don't get a 360, like an improved screen, audio, etc. The only real major change was the addition of an SD slot and internal memory. The 360 already had the equivalent of that.

Every minor Gameboy upgrade has been insignificant with the only real benefits being in improving battery life and the form. Neither of which the 360 can benefit from.

The Gameboy to Gameboy Advance was a big change that broke compatibility. But the Gameboy launched in 1989. The GBA launched in 2001. Nintendo had to eventually give people more horepower. They milked the other system for 12 years.

If the 360 does a Gameboy to Gameboy advance move, yes the new adopters will have no problems but as a developer why take advantage of the new power when that means you have a smaller audience. If you're a gamer, why bother when no one is making games for this minimal upgrade?

The handheld market is cheaper and easier to make these changes because everything is contained in the unit. You can make changes that appear more significant than they are, ie better screen brightness, bigger screen, etc and these won't break the compatibility.

MS is effectively turning the 360 into a PC. A PC without the freedom of being a real PC.

DubsTF's picture

There is no real difference between a DS and DSI. The improvements are in things you don't get a 360, like an improved screen, audio, etc. The only real major change was the addition of an SD slot and internal memory.

Um, CAMERAS?

Indrema's picture

Isn't install base what every developer wrestles with when a new console is released?

Assuming a graphical upgrade, the 360 can do the equivalent of DirectX 9c. Now if the new system could do 10.1, you'd get things like Realtime Ambient Occlusion & better shader effects - like Bloom, greater fluid geometry manipulation, etc. The way DirectX is setup, if the game makes these "calls" & your system doesn't support them, the system moves on.

If a game were programmed in this way, you would have playable compatibilty. You'd just miss some added realism & effects. It would also explain forward-compatibilty; as you can apply techniques like AO shaders as a matter of course to any game.

NickgamertagO1's picture

Hmm, interesting. I don't know that much on a technical level.

Yeah, I meant that initially the installed base is low which developers don't like. But I think both the 360 and natal 360 (N360) can co-exist for a long time while the N360 increases its installed base. I think eventually more and more support would be thrown toward the N360 as the installed base increases. But your comment on playable compatibility makes a whole lot more sense, thus shooting down my installed base point (which is a good thing).

That does make it sound kinda like a PC, but the good thing would be that the 360's usebase would NOT be split, meaning developers can take advantage of the improved capabilities of the N360 while allowing the game to be enjoyed by old 360 owners just with some graphical changes.

Indrema's picture

There all just game-PC's anyway.

Sega & NEC had CD-Drive addon's. Sega sold an expandable graphics card. Sony sold Hard-Drive upgrades for the PS2. Hell, Nintendo sold Ram-Upgrades for the N64!!

NickgamertagO1's picture

"Sony sold Hard-Drive upgrades for the PS2"

And dial up/broadband network adapters that eventually made their way into the system as an update (sans HDD slot lol eliminating the ability to play FFXI, nicely done!).

Indrema's picture

Ha! Ha! yeah I remember that.

NickgamertagO1's picture

Good points. The only thing I'd add is there are games on the DSi that are not compatible with the regular DS. And also, if the installed base for the new 360 were too climb at a steady pace, more and more games would start being made specifically for it. Benefiting both consumers and the publsihers/developers.

DubsTF's picture

I think the immense difference in cost to develop a DS title vs. a 360 title makes this kind of an apples and oranges comparison.

Apple is similarly forking their iPhone platform with the beefed-up 3D hardware in the new model, but there again the barrier to entry and financial risk for a developer are a tiny fraction of what they are for a AAA 360 title.

NickgamertagO1's picture

True, but I'm sure MS sees the long term benfit of losing on each console (assuming they'll be pricing it cheap) worth it. Of course, we are all talking about rumors here. They very well may just do like slim-360 with Natal and an HDD included with no graphical updates (seems more likely to me).

DubsTF's picture

I think you missed the word "title" in the first sentence of my comment.

NickgamertagO1's picture

I did.

Jack_'s picture

I can't play handhelds, so I don't really care about what goes on in that sector.

But how is this any different from, say, a new console coming out 5 years after their last one with backwards compatability? It's just got the same name in there.

NickgamertagO1's picture

Because it's more of an update as opposed to a full blown new console. Games can be made to work on both and it won't be criticized for not having "next-gen" graphics. The transition could be allowed to be slower so the "old" 360 can be supported for much longer until the "new" 360's installed base is high enough to support games designed to NOT work on the old one.

I remember a while back that there was some rumor going around the MS's games were going to be "forward compatible" so maybe they are planning some kind of craziness like this.

NickgamertagO1's picture

Hmm, interesting idea. I know I'll most likely be first in line to get one but my only concern would be can a home console to a quisi-update like the GBA to GBAsp or DS to DSi? Small changes but ultimately the newer one becomes the primary version and it's acceptable for the older one to linger in the distance before becoming obsolete. When and if this happens MS could slash the price of the "old" 360. I could see both of them co-existing for a 1-2 years.

The other problem is as someone else has already mentioned if there are games made for the "new" version that don't work on the old one people might get pissed-off. But at the same time there are already 20+ games for the DSi that won't work on the DS and that doesn't seem to be a big deal. Most likely the number would be small (especially initially) and be limited to hardcore games (I see a lot of hardcore gamers updating to the new version right away) but when more and more people buy into the new 360 it would be safer for developers to take advantage of the extra horse power without having to worry about limiting their audience.

MS is basically doing a handheld update in the home console space, something that hasn't been done before (I don't consider "slim" versions the same as actual spec-increase updates). It could be huge if enough people buy the new one; if they don't...it's a huge risk. But it could also boost their momentum.

Oh, and 1up has a good history with rumors. A lot of the time you can rely on what they say. If you’ve followed quarter-man for any amount of time, you’d already know that most of the rumors they reported in EGM ended up being real. So I wouldn’t discount this rumor just yet.

German's picture

I remember the E3 conference when Microsoft unveiled project Natal and they "casually" mentioned that it will work will "ALL" Xbox 360 versions, at that time it sounded kind of dull since you will expect that but now with this RUMOR that comment is starting to make a LOT of sense, I guess more than bringing an upgrade to the 360 its more about making project Natal a standard in game developers minds so it wont be restricted to the "Add on" realm where, while successful, only a 10-20% of the installed user base will have it.

By adding Natal as a standard in all future 360's not only you guarantee a big enough installed base to entice developers but also to assure old 360 users that the purchase of Natal is well worth it and its a commitment for the long run and not some SEGA 32X or Sega CD "old school" game industry practice :P

Indrema's picture

When did it get a hardware upgrade?

This rumor has been circulating for a couple of weeks now. Everything I've read leads to, simply, a "Slim-360" with a bundled Natel. That's it. The reasoning is the new "System-on-a-Chip" that incorporates the entire 360 architecture; which makes the system more stable, smaller, & much cheaper to produce.

The original rumor is a lot more plausible. Core gamers wouldn't be alienated, & if you got RROD; you'd get a "Slim" replacement. You could also buy a Natel, but people who own an Xbox now aren't really the market they're after.

ArronC07's picture

Oh dear. Even if its true or false this story is so full of fail.

DubsTF's picture

Oh yes, this would be a brilliant business decision.

Say guys, I have an idea—let's fork our platform! And while we're at it, is there a way we can make it even more expensive and complicated to develop for? New, unproven motion control interface? Not complicated enough! Let's throw another monkeywrench into the mix by making developers target two base hardware configurations! The easy days of developing titles in parallel for 360 and PS3 are over—now they can just develop costly exclusives for our new, higher spec platform with no built in audience!

And while we're at it, let's extend a big middle finger to our existing customers by releasing a smaller, cheaper version of the console with the hardware reliability it should have had in the first place. The idiots who've already bought multiple 360s due to RROD surely won't mind buying another! And the fools who paid $100 for a wi-fi antenna that should've been built-in from day one will absolutely love the fact that it cost them roughly half the price of this new system that does have it built in.

And to top it all off, let's leak the story to 1UP ridiculously early, sending a clear message to the marketplace that nobody should buy a 360 for the next year and a half or so because there's a newer, better, cheaper version coming sometime in the future! AWESOME!

Not even Microsoft are that stupid. At least I don't think so. If they aren't that stupid, they should be vigorously denying this rather than offering "no comment." Hmmmmm.

Maybe they feel like they've genuinely run out of reasons for people to buy their (existing) console, so now they'll just focus their energy on trying to convince fence-sitters and non-gamers not to buy a Wii or PS3 because this vaporous new product will (eventually, maybe) best them both...?

This one's a head-scratcher for sure. Oh Microsoft, you so crazy!

SaintJude's picture

Seems to me both MS and Sony (to a lesser extent) have squeezed their respective consoles dry, in terms of attracting new customers. Now they need to do a Nintento.

grognard66's picture

Sounds perfectly plausible to me. MS already increased the RAM on post-NXE 360's internally. Considering the existing 360 SDK's already allow developers to scale for various PC configurations (and various tv resolutions) there's no reason they couldn't release a slightly upgraded 360 and incorporate it into the SDK's for whoever wants to take advantage of it.

They could slightly upgrade the GPU so it supports DX10 and add more RAM which would allow more developers to alternately support 1080P or more detail/draw distance/etc at lower resolutions as an option. They're probably not looking at an entirely new architecture, just beefing up what's already there. This wouldn't split the user base - just give additional graphic options to people who want the newer, presumably more expensive, 360.

MattyJ's picture

So 1Up fabricate a story, create a rumour out of thin air, and Edge run the story? Jesus Christ.

dreamhunk's picture

hahahaI want them to release it. Either way miccrosoft is going money.

StealthBadger's picture

Would this have games which weren't playable on the standard 360? If so, I imagine it might not be too popular an idea. If it's like a super-elite, or (my personal theory) just a slimmer, better looking version of the (fugly) 360, then maybe it'd sell fine and not irritate anybody too much?

donnie080208's picture

this would be very risky for MS and potential suicied.why would they launch a new console when the 360 has done so well for them and the original xbox was only on the market 3/4 years this would create resentment among its userbase who have already endured multiple hardware failures.plus you have to take into account the current economic climate.

mr_t's picture

Sorry to disagree with you folks - this is by far the most preposterous rumor I've heard in a long time.

Developers and publishers will never use the alleged “new muscle” (1UP’s term) – that would reduce their target audience by 30 million. Even for Natal-games the publishers will never utilize such added power using the same reasoning.

If you’re then thinking – “well dude, this is software – EA et. all will just make games that gracefully downscale” – well no they want, it’s a simple CBA argument.

Looking at the handheld audience for perhaps a clue to what such features might be; the PSP Go and DSi has shown, that interim platforms probably will only get new non-essential features e.g. web-shops, cameras, reduced form factor and even removed optimal drives.

My guess would be: a X360-slim, internal HDD (aka PS3) and wireless LAN bundled with the Natal-camera – perhaps an all digital version without the DVD-drive to further combat piracy and take advantage of the “games on demand”-service that’ll launch this autumn.

Seriously, can anyone even contemplate how the PS2 would have suffered, if Sony had released a PS2 1.5 with more gpu/cpu-omph in response to the more powerful Xbox?

SaintJude's picture

Fair point. And I agree, 360 won't be getting more power. At least I hope it's not. But this 'new' 360, if there ever is one, will be rammed full of 'non-essential' upgrades.

SaintJude's picture

Bad news for the 'core' gamers then. It is just a rumour but somehow doesn't seem all that far-fetched...

lukas_himmelgeher's picture

Strategically, it would make a lot of sense for Microsoft as they could bundle "Natal" with revised 360 hardware putting a lot of pressure on the competition while keeping the transition to higher spec hardware easy. In a way, all the big three hardware manufacturer face the trouble of having to upgrade overtime their hardware in order to maintain momentum and a marketing edge while not doing a whole hardware transition, which would alienate the existing consumer base and pose huge problems for the developing community. The solution to this dilemma could be incremental hardware revisions, as a lot of analysts argued in the past. But as this generation of hardware has become obsessed with new control schemes and accessories, it could also make introducing new controllers an easy exercise.

We will see what the future holds, but such a move by Microsoft could pressure Nintendo to go HD or upgrade fully (something they wouldn't like to do right now) and leave Sony on the sidelines, as Sony still has to recover from introducing the costly PS3 in the first place. Thus Microsoft could potentially widen the gap to Sony (especially if revised new 360 hardware would match the then "old" PS3 price-wise), while narrowing the gap to Nintendo (if not closing it).