Ahead of the NPD Group’s release of November sales data for the US games market this Thursday, industry analysts have forecast a slight rise in console software sales year-on-year.
“We expect November software sales of $1,550 million (up 7% compared to November 2008’s $1.45 billion),” Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities wrote in a research note.
Cowen and Company’s Doug Creutz predicted that console and handheld software sales increased by two per cent year-on-year, but that PC software declined 57 per cent compared to last November when World Of Warcraft: Wrath Of The Lich King released.
Both analysts said that console software sales were primarily driven by Activision’s Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, which they believe sold six million units during the month.
Pachter cited New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Assassin’s Creed 2 and Left 4 Dead 2 as other “top November releases”. Creutz expects those three titles to have sold 1.8 million, 1.6 million and 850,000 units respectively in November. He also predicted 750,000 Dragon Age: Origins sales.
On the hardware front, Pachter and EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich said that they expect monthly sales totals to be down year-on-year. However, both analysts believe PS3 sales were up significantly over November 2008.
Wedbush / EEDAR hardware sales estimates (change year-on-year):
DS - 1,535,000 (-2%) / 1,580,000 (+1%)
Wii - 1,050,000 (-49%) / 1,200,000 (-41%)
PS3 - 700,000 (+85%) / 725,000 (+92%)
Xbox 360 - 650,000 (-22%) / 700,000 (-16%)
PSP - 290,000 (-31%) / 270,000 (-36%)
PS2 - 175,000 (-15%) / 200,000 (-3%)
Total - 4 ,400,000 (-19%) / 4,675,000 (-14%)
“We expect the recent round of price cuts to continue to benefit the PS3 the most in coming months, as the Wii and Xbox 360 face more difficult comparisons,” said Pachter. “We think that the PS3 will again outsell the Xbox 360 in November and December, prompting a price cut some time early next year. Microsoft has the ability to lower price yet again, but we anticipate the introduction of a more feature-packed Xbox 360 in early 2010 (likely with a 250Gb hard drive) at the same $299 price point; we think that Microsoft will cut price only if it begins to lose significant market share to Sony.
“The PSP Go launched on October 1 to little fanfare, and we do not see dramatic sales gains for that device,” he added. “We believe Nintendo’s DS biggest sales challenge will be its own high installed base (34 million in the U.S.), and expect that some time in 2010, DS sales will begin to decline.”