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NPD Makes 2010 Predictions

Tom Ivan's picture

By Tom Ivan

January 8, 2010

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Research firm the NPD Group has offered a number of games industry predictions for the coming year.

“Q1 is shaping up to be the biggest quarter in video game history as several marquee titles slipped from this year into next, joining the already strong line-up of new releases,” said games analyst Anita Frazier, who also believes that “motion-sensing controllers will be a focal point as Microsoft’s Natal will likely make its way to market during the year.” Microsoft has since confirmed that Natal will release in 2010, while Sony’s new motion sensing controller is set to launch this spring.

“In PC games, sales generated via digital distribution will overtake those generated at retail, and there will be some big PC game releases, most notably from Activision Blizzard,” Frazier added.

“But perhaps the biggest issue facing the industry in 2010 is the proliferation of mobile and social gaming, much of which is free to the consumer. While they can't replace or replicate the gaming experience that a full frontline game offers, they can and do satisfy the gaming craving for many occasional gamers. Their existence is putting pressure on the casual games side of the industry, and the impact may spread to the more traditional segment of the industry through downward price pressure on content.”

Source: NPD Insights

Bleak Corner's picture

I truly wonder if people are ready for yet another additional peripheral in their living rooms. So far, I haven't seen anything that makes me believe either Sony or Microsoft are improving on what Nintendo started. Sony's marketing division has a lot of work to do if they are really set on releasing their controller this spring. I think they instead should focus on the games that are coming out for their console. While 360 commercials are everywhere, it seems like Sony is seriously behind on this.

Mobile gaming is only fun when you're not near a superior device to play games on. However, the social network games show that developers can make money from their games in different ways and while these games are nowhere near the more extensive experiences on offer, I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see that they're attracting casual gamers. This is not something that is suddenly facing the industry in 2010, it already was in 2009. I think it's simply a matter of embracing this alternate format and using existing IP to compete. So free Rachet & Clank and Mario games on Facebook in Pet Society type of games - with the ingame advertising both highlighting the extensive experiences and other, random, things on the side. Then, integrate these social network elements into the "real" games a bit more (by letting people walk around in their custom made characters)... and you give casual gamers the option on how far they are willing to take their gaming experience without having to completely overhaul the concept. So essentially what is already happening with things like Home but this time, closer to the world of casual gamers - so on networks they actually use.

Ben_Lathwell's picture

If `Sony's jobby is launching in the spring i would expect Natal to be released around the same time.

This would also fit into MS switching from a chip based system to software, seeing as chips have to be ordered whereas software is near instant

DubsTF's picture

My prediction is for right in between Halloween and Thanksgiving.