Sales of music videogames are down 46 per cent year-to-date in the US marketplace, according to the NPD Group.
However, the category remains the third bestselling genre of 2009, and will see a boost in the coming months following the release of The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5 in September, said NPD analyst Anita Frazier.
"With the introduction of Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5 in September, a lot of folks have inquired about the performance of these titles and the music/dance genre,” she said. “While sales of this genre are down 46 per cent year-to-date, unit sales are down much less because lower prices are playing into the dollar sales decline. It's still the third bestselling genre for the year after general action and multiple/other sports (where Wii Fit resides)."
Despite holiday 2008 growth that “fell short of many investors' expectations,” earlier this year Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz rejected the notion that the music genre may be a passing fad.
“The music genre has expanded the overall videogame market and is here to stay,” he said, although he predicted a moderate decline in genre sales in the US during 2009.
Cowen also said that he expects Guitar Hero “is likely to face less competition from Rock Band this year,” driving a gain in market share for Activision's franchise.
“MTV Games has decided to focus its 2009 development efforts on the release of a Beatles-themed expansion of Rock Band, rather than a new major edition of the core game. While the Beatles game will likely sell well and possibly expand the genre to new gamers/Beatles fans, we think the title is unlikely to achieve the level of sales that another major Rock Band release could due to the narrow focus of the title’s music.”
I suspect Cowen is wrong about Beatles Rock Band not gaining market share in that space away from GH. I bought both and they're both fine games, but when I went to Best Buy the 360 $249 Beatles bundles were being picked up literally as fast as the clerk could restack them the morning it launched.
not to mention that The Beatles preorders alone outnumber the total first week sales of GH5. I think these analysts have underestimated the influence of the Beatles -- as I have until recently.
I think the sharp contrast between the mockery of Kurt Cobain in GH5 vs. the reverence of The Beatles will move a lot of GH5 fans into the RB camp.