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Sony: Rivals “Looking At A Five Year Lifecycle”
Sony Computer Entertainment president Kaz Hirai says that rival platform holders Microsoft and Nintendo have approached the current console generation with a five year lifecycle in mind.
Hirai also told the Guardian that a focus on attracting mainstream consumers at the expense of core gamers early in a system’s lifecycle could backfire over an extended period of time.
“The PS3 is only a quarter way through a ten-year life cycle. So we want to make sure that we are supporting and exciting the core gamers,” he said. “That's not to say we're not doing anything to expand the demographics. Singstar and Buzz are obvious examples. But we need to do this in a controlled way. If you go mainstream too quickly and don't support the core gaming audience then you lack the pillar to support your platform.
“Without this pillar you end up with a fickle audience that might be big but will probably move on. This is fine if you're looking at a five year lifecycle like all of our competitors, even looking back in history, have always done. The new console comes out and the old one is immediately disregarded. We tend to take a longer term view of how we manage the platform and the software titles that come out at any given time.”
Microsoft would likely take issue with Hirai’s comments. Speaking last week, around three-and-a-half years after Xbox 360 launched, Xbox Live GM Marc Whitten said that newly revealed features could add years to the console’s lifecycle.
Analysts, too, have suggested that new motion control interfaces like Microsoft’s Project Natal should give the current console generation extra legs.
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No way does the PS3 or the 360 for that matter have the momentum to go 10 years. Wii-aping or otherwise.
This generation will last longer than usual but not 10+ years!
The PS2 has been helped along by a giant installed base and by fairly strong publisher support even after the launch of PS3. It's coming on 10 years since the PS2 came out and that is really incredible.
Due to all the reasons put forth by analysts and the press, none of the Big 3 are in a mad rush to unveil the next super console. For one, they're going to need to get enough publishers on board with the idea, cuz a brand new technolgy platform is just going to be a big pain in the ass for them and their development studios. They're starting from scratch not only with the tech but also with the install base.
Microsoft probably has the most to gain from moving to the next-gen first. Launching the 720 would definitely force Sony's hand into stepping up the release of the PS4. (As others have already pointed out, a "10 year life cycle" doesn't exclude the co-existence of a next-gen Playstation.) When that happens, we'll see if the PS3 has the kind of legs the PS2 has shown. I find it very hard to imagine Sony will just sit still while Microsoft gets the jumpstart on the next-gen.
It'll be also interesting to see how Microsoft treats the 360 after the 720 comes out. Drop the 360 like a hot potato or at least make an effort to smoothly transition their customer base to the new platform?
Here is the key problem for Sony, maybe the PS3 could last 10years hardware-wise, but if there are new kids on the block looking smarter (i.e. new consoles from Microsoft or Nintendo), Sony will have to move. It's a question of momentum! And no, the PS3 doesn't have the momentum to last 10years currently and doesn't look likely to get it in the next two years. Thus it will be over far sooner than 10 years.
In my opinion, they gonna continue with a PS4 or similar after 5 years of PS3, just in order to turn their business around. In order to do so, PS4 could basically be just an updated PS3 with maybe some new control schemes bundled and other faceliftings, but nothing more. It'd have to happen more marketing-wise, than hardware-wise.
Perhaps the slim could come out at a cheaper price but bundled with their version of motion control in a couple of years time? To really take the Wii on at its own game. Of course they'd need software.
It's easy to dismiss Wii sports as a core gamer, but for a lot of people Wii sports will probably be their abiding memory of gaming for a long time to come. It really has opened so many eyes to gaming, in many ways I honestly believe it could turn out to be one of the most important games in history, if it isn't already that is.
They'll launch the PS4 and keep the PS3 running along side it until the PS3 is ten years old, that's what he's saying.
I think most people aren't getting that.
Actually I disagree with you and here is the reason why: The PS3 does not compare to the PS2 in terms of sales and thus is far less interesting to develop for. Look, gamecube and xbox got dropped after 4 or 5 years not because their hardware couldn't compete with PS2, but because of business viability (same story N64 and PS1). No publisher is gonna care about PS3 for 7 to 10years if doesn't move enough numbers.
So yes, I am getting it, and no, I do not believe Sony on their 10year lifecycle.
Well, I think that would be the case lukas if MS launched the 720 in a couple years. Seeing that it seems as though MS has no intention on releasing their next box anytime before 2013, it's likely the 360 and PS3 will be equally supported for the next 3 1/2 years (PS3's 6 year anniversary and when in all likelyhood the 720 will be coming out). If that's the case, the PS3 will be viable for at least 6-7 years before the PS4 comes out but not because of the PS3's installed base (like it was with the PS2), but because there just isn't any other new hardware (aside from the likely new Nintendo console) for publsihers to support.
I believe that Sony will support the PS3 for 10 years, they have previous in this area. They AREN'T saying that they wont release PS4 in this time.
That's absolutely correct Arron, the PS3 launched at the PS2's ~7 year mark and the PS2 is just now inching toward its 10 year anniversary.
I used to think the PS4 would launch well before PS3's 7th year, but with the recession and the seeming lack of desire for Sony's competition to launch new hardware soon it seems it may last 7 years afterall...but it seems like the 360 may pull that off, too. I don't think the Wii will, I really don't think its aged-hardware could last that long (it's not a steak!).
I agree, apart from the Wii comment. I don't think its lack of power will be that damaging since its competition won't leave it any further behind than it already does. The gap isn't likely to close but neither is it likely to lengthen to any great degree. Besides, if it continues to lead the market, perhaps more third party developers might actually decide to make decent engines for it, since many third party games look terrible on Wii.
As an example, the DS isn't even close to the PSP in terms of power, but that hasn't stopped it being a lot more successful.
It might be interesting to see how pc hardware and software develops in an environment where they continue to leave the consoles further behind. It's concievable in a couple of years time that a good gaming rig could have a similar performance gap between itself and a 360 as the 360 enjoys over the Wii, that could make multi-format releases on 360 and pc more difficult than now, but that is pure speculation on my part of course!
Hmm, good point. (Sorry reply so short, don't have a counter argument as your's seems pretty solid!) ^^
Jesus first they had Keeeraaazy Ken now it's time for Keeeraaazy Kaz.
Yeah yeah yeah 10 years blah blah blah who knows GT5 may well see the light of day and Blu-ray might have a good film back catalogue by the time the poopstation 3 dies but we all know they will roll out another machine before then anyway so Kaz old chum jog on.
A 10 year console life cycle is fine if they mean how long the console can be on the market and sell and be supported. If they mean 10 years as their PRIMARY console w/ no newer consoles in that time, they're deluding themselves and are doing this because the PS3 simply hasn't sold to expectation in 5 years so they're extending it to 10 to recoup their losses.
Sorry, but I don't want to be dealing with hardware limitations from 2003-4 in 2013. If they do that then the console manufacturers themselves may end up revitalizing the PC market.
What was the the life cycle of the PS1 compared to the Saturn and N64?
What was the life cycle of the PS2 compared to the gamecube and xbox?
I wouldn't dismiss his words completely without looking back at how previous playstations have done.
The PS2 was pushed hard by Sony in 2000 - nearly 5 years to the day the PSONE launched. They had to work fast & hard to combat the Dreamcast.
The PS2 was kept around because the PS3 sold lower than expectations; so there it is. There was no grand plan. Both transistions came about due to desperation. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't.
Hmm, interesting theory. I do think a gigantic installed-base had something to do with both the PS1 and PS2 existing far into their respective successor's console-cycle.
That is so funny! All console makers(and I do mean all) will say anything to make you believe investing in them is somehow that smarter decision and investing in the competition.
It's just a form of marketing BS to make you feel somehow you will be left out in cold sooner if you didn't buy a PS3 cuz of a longer lifecyle. No one knows how all this will turn out, its just BS plain and simple
I prefer my 360 to my PS3 and Wii, but only because currently it has more games that I happen to like on it and I prefer Xbox Live to the competition. That could change at any moment with great game release for the PS3.
In no way it is because I believe its superior hardware, or will last longer, or because microsoft has a better long term plan...etc..etc.....any of that cra@ the companies put out.
It has and always will be the games.
Kaz Harai, the guy with a (smug) face you want to punch. Shut the f*ck up you moron...
IT'S A SMUG-OFF... FIGHT!
Are you ready for Friday?
Wow.
it would be so cool to make coffee mugs of the these shots! Imagine in a get together people will pick the mug of their choice to show support for their console. I personally will pick Kaz coffee mug since it will surely last me 10 years :P
Neutral is the word my friend... Most Asian people don't show emotion easily like other folk.
nah, it's easy to read. A giant sweat drop appears when nervous, a huge cross shaped vein on the temple when angry, and the eyes are inverted U's when very happy.
Hirai right now is just doing a 'wistful gaze', distant, yet inviting.
gwsmokey making a rare appearance. Where've you been?
Kaz Hirai the biggest prick in the industry, the man who told you to go get a second job so you could afford a console that had no good games.
Hey these boards are not intended for children under 18...
Errr, I think you'll find that was Kutaragi who said that in response to questions about the high price tag. Anyway we all know that the award for the biggest prick in the industry is a tie between Cliff B and Aaron Greenberg.
There might be a life cycle for ten years if 100 million PS3 sells. However, 100 million PS3 doesn't seem to sell. Mr. Hirai's plan is an armchair theory.
Who's he trying to kid, one article I read about a year ago regarding PS3 sales in Japan stated that one of the primary reasons for the sales was the consoles bluray movie playback capabilities, not the (lack of) games!! That's also one of the reasons I eventually bought my PS3 for.
BTW I think the Wii will surpass PS2 sales. PS2 never really penetrated the casual market on the scale that the Wii has, is & will continue to do so. I can't see too many housewives buying a PS3 or 360.
Consider this; Wii Fit has outsold combined PS3/360 sales of Call of Duty 4 Modern Warfare & Call of Duty World at War!! (source www.vgchartz.com)
Because Nintendo is not HD system, the next generation machine will be put out first. Nintendo will give up 100 million by own circumstances.
The buyer of "non-game kind" is no equal sign with a casual gamer. I think that the most of the buyer of "non-game kind" do not buy a game than the casual gamer either. The buyer of "non-game kind" is most unreliable people.
I find it all hilarious. Sony have become Nintendo and Nintendo have become Sony. Kaz is now more like Miyamoto than Miyamoto is. Sony seem to have become the cautious, sensible ones and Nintendo are out there being brash and loud. I think, for me, it has to do with the underdog factor. During the PS2 days, Nintendo were all coy and understated, but now that Nintendo is in the lead, its Sony's turn to be all reflective. I personally like the underdog. They try harder to court their core users, which is great for me as i feel spoilt as a PS3 owner at the moment. I initially felt spoilt owning a Wii as I was lucky enough to get one at release, but that spoilt feeling subsided when I realised that the software support just wasn't there for my particular gaming tastes. The the Wii exploded big time and I just felt that the system wasn't exclusive anymore. You would hear typical non-gamers on busses talking about how great the wii is, women, older people, kids etc.. That was enough for me, over exposed, I wanted to go back to a more hardcore style of gaming. The PS3 was the choice for me. And wow, what a choice I made. If the PS3 carries on like this for the next 7.5 years then I am one happy bunny. Just don't sell out and go for the casual market and forget us proper gamers like Nintendo did. Anyway, thats just my opinion. It might not be right, but i think it is ;-)
Surely the little nugget he's ignoring here is that if the 360 and Wii are on a 5 year cycle that will mean both Xbox and Nintendo make the next step up the ladder when the PS3 is only half way through its life.
Assuming they make a big step, as has usually been the way (Wii stepping into a different game entirely at the time of launch), then won't they completely leapfrog the PS3 and leave it with 4-5 years of being completely outclassed?
Ahh Hirai - be quiet now please...your hurting my brain with your contrieved PR-bull.
But then again, the man is right: "you end up with a fickle audience that might be big but will probably move on" Point in case being the truckloads of casual PS2-owning families, that now are have a blast with Wii Sports.
Sonys repeaded message over the last 6-8 moths: "We're not fucked oh no; our competitors er fucked! Even though they enjoy great sucess currently, just watch as we'll magically (and much deserved we think ourselves) establish our marked superiority in the days and years ahead"
And if the wii and 360 were the ones lagging in sales instead of the PS3, they would be saying the exact same thing.
I swear, there's no difference between politics and corporate marketing.
Attacking casual gamers at the beginning is a great way to fail? Way to play "PR" your way out of admitting to playing catch-up. Wasn't he the same guy that said the Wii would fail because Nintendo's controller was too unconventional? That's what he gets for riding the SNES pad for 15 years!
Sony's got more continuity issues than a bad episode of Star Trek
- Sony announced the PS2 in June '99 - 4 years after the PSONE
- Sony said graphics weren't important when discussing the PS2's competition
And they're about to do it again. They talk like everything's about graphics. Forget things like SDXC - a format offering speeds twice as fast as hard drives, 0 ms response time, & up to 2TB of storage. The i7 is has surpased the cell 2 years after it's inception.
If they keep this up, 4 years from now, it won't be the PSP competing with the iPhone. It'll be the PS3 itself.
Oh god... Kaz and co. really just need to STFU.
I wonder when will Hirai stop wining about the 10 year lifecycle. It really saddens me. No seriously. And now he's talking shit about how his rivals are perceiving their console lifecycles. Very sad. Also the pathetic statement how the PS3 has been build for a 10 year long cycle. It brings tears to my eyes. What about Sony's previous two consoles. Both were the weakest in their generation. Floating Point Performance has not brought them the success they had Mr. Hirai. Oo yes and they're not the first to brake the 10 year barrier. What about NES and SNES.
"This is fine if you're looking at a five year lifecycle like all of our competitors, even looking back in history, have always done. The new console comes out and the old one is immediately disregarded. We tend to take a longer term view of how we manage the platform and the software titles that come out at any given time.”
The funny fact is that the NES is actually the longest supported console to date. The last NINTENDO game is in the 11th year of it's lifecycle. What about Sony's support for the PS1. Very amusing :)
I'd be surprised if the PS2 doesn't last at least that long to be honest. They'll keep pushing it until the end of time.
Am I the only one who doesn't particularly want the next generation to come? (PS3/360/PC) Games look amazing nowadays, and the next one will be better for sure, but it's not worth a few hundred for a new system for me. Maybe one more generation, and then we can just relax with those systems.
Remember, it's not just graphics that are improved upon. New consoles bring new features that have nothing to do with graphics. My 360 (and I'm sure other 360/PS3 owners) is used for all kinds of things (marketplace movies, netflix movies, streaming music/videos/pictures from my PC, video chatting with my family back home) and none of those features were available on the Xbox 1. If it doesn't happen with the 360 this gen, I'm hoping that I can watch tv directly through my xbox 720 without having to use my media center pc to do it, then I could cancel my overpriced cable once and for all.
The days of just getting better graphics with new console iterations is gone.
But... who cares about that stuff? You have a computer, and you have a game console. Sometimes your computer plays games too. And it's not like you're getting rid of your computer -- you still have that to browse the internet and type up essays with.
Maybe my problem is that I only care about video games.
I used to only care about video games on my game console, but now I have games AND other things I really like consolidated into one nice little package.
Which means that you can't do two things at the same time.
I don't know about you but when I'm playing a game on a console I'm not really doing anything else.
There was a time when I wanted the console just to be a games machine. That was back in the day when the only thing next to the TV was either another console or a VCR. Now with everything fighting for my TV realestate I want something that can play games, record my TV, and let me download HD movies whilst also keeping me online.
You already have one. Chances are you're posting from one right now. :P
As for "doing two things at the same time" -- I mean that you can't pause the game and go to gamefaqs or something when you get stuck, or are trying to find every last gold bar. I can't imagine wanting to do anything else, really.
I'm hoping that consoles last longer and longer as we go forward.
Having that consolidation is nice most of the time. But I do agree with Jack_ simply for the reason that I believe what's on the market now can already do what we want with firmware updates or software upgrades.
If there's a significant AND MEANINGFUL hardware advantage to releasing a new console then go ahead. But I disagree with this approach of creating new hardware with minor revisions to get upgraded software/firmware. That's the game PC's play. Take that dreamhunk ;)
Very true Rob, and maybe with the 360 MS will (as they've done already) introduce new features via firmware instead of having to release new hardware. We've alredy seen quite a few things added to the 360 (and PS3) with updates since it launched and adding TV directly though your 360 should be next (as it already has been announced, I think in Britain no?).
I agree guys, I definitely don't think consoles should continue to be released just for the sake of it with a few extra bells, whistles and slightly better graphics. A lot of it will be firmware as you say but as we push it harder it will be just like upgrading a PC, we will need more grunt under the hood to run everything and so will arrive the next gen.
We need to keep pushing the boundaries of these boxes, they have prime position at the center of the home and are made in a way that your parents and grandparents will be able to navigate. I know I have a PC which does everything but you need to look beyond that, not everyone is comfortable with a PC, everyone IS comfortable with TV. I'm sure the PC is not in danger of leaving as we know it just yet, but the way we integrate online and gather information will certainly change. One day we will be able to advise our console and NOT our PC that we will soon be arriving home and to prepare for our imminent arrival...Gears of War:10 loaded and ready to go, aircon on, start recording Top Gear, phone the wife as you open the door and display on TV, transfer tonights dinner recipe to the fridge screen tv....ahhh good times :)